Bomb Low: Jul 25-29th 2008

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David
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Bomb Low: Jul 25-29th 2008

Unread post by David »

Wow the metvuw models really show the subtropical low to be quite violent. It suggests a low centre of about 967hPa to cross the North Island! See attached...

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Yes moderators, I suppose it was a good move to make this a new thread. Could be wild!
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by Willoughby »

Yes, looking very interesting from the GFS!

It's still early days with the models as it's hard for them to interpret these sort of systems. Lots of disagreement between the models at this stage from the 12Z data, but will be looking forward to what the 00Z ECMWF and UKMO runs suggest.

Gosh it's been such a contrast to the beginning of the year with the record drought, the grounds now this winter are well sodden!
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by TonyT »

This could be a very major system. :shock: :-k
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

Yes, sure has big potential
sure is a big jet stream over queensland at the moment to spawn it

the path it takes will be the 6 million dollar question

one to watch alright!
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by spwill »

the path it takes will be the 6 million dollar question
Only a few days away and both ECMWF and GFS have the Low on a similar path across the NI this weekend, batten down the hatches ?
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

ah, just had a look, and yes the latest ecmwf is in agreement with gfs
yes, when you get those 2 ducks lined up, look out alright!
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by gllitz »

uhm...meep? :shock: :shock:
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by Willoughby »

ECMWF 00z has it down to 960mb east of Gisborne at midday, Sunday

So probably looking at down to ~978mb which is more realistic.
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by NZstorm »

GFS looks interesting with the barometer reading at Auckland 6pm Saturday 969hpa! Looks like the bulk of the warm advection/heavy rain will occur out to sea but we should still see some heavy rainfall from Northland to Gisborne. The low moves through quickly which will reduce its impact.
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

http://www.metservice.com/default/index ... st_7daytas

Does the above forecast picture have potential to bring snow to very low levels in Canterbury? with 962hpa during Sunday on the timeline...
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by Michael »

No there will be a big fat ridge over the whole SI bringing fine cold weather.
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

The weather watch centre via Philip Duncan said this about that subtropical storm "This low could bring stronger south easterlies over the weekend coupled with heavy rain in the north and heavy snow over Central Plateau and the South Island. "
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by Vertigo »

wow, fantastic! i saw this coming a few days ago, and didnt mention it because the models forecast it passing well north of us, and wasnt that deep. how things have changed! this will be doozy for sure.
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by Pelorus Pete »

:shock: Gulp !!!
I am landing AKL in a 747-400 at 5.15am on the 27th - do you think I should be worried ??????? :-k

Been in Kiev for last 2 months and hoped to have missed the worst of the winter [-X

Yea - right !!!!!!!!
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Maybe this should be the "Major Trough" topic instead of the one I put up ??? - GULP 8-[

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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by Nev »

WOW!!! :shock: This could well eclipse the last year's July 10 storm!

Pete, you might end up in CHCH :?

Check List - batteries, candles, barbecue gas, tie-ropes, chain-saw ....
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by Pelorus Pete »

Nev wrote: Pete, you might end up in CHCH :?

Nev - Hope you are right - I be happy with that, as Nick says - we heading into Pelorus Sounds. =D>
Be interesting - yes ???? :-k
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i see latest gfs model run has it slightly north on the track...but that might mean more rain for exposed eastern coast lines

hey, wow, flash new look to the forum! (refresh the browser)
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, not much change in the models overnight. Looks like wind in Auckland will rise to gale force ESE on Saturday morning. GFS says 38kts.
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Re: Deep subtropical low possible Jul 25-29th

Unread post by Willoughby »

Models this morning are looking great with now all global and regional models coming into agreement at last on this system.

UKMET is the odd one out and has it peaking northeast of Cape Reinga on Saturday whilst the other models keep her strengthening as it becomes more extratropical and cold-cored past the Chatham Islands.
There are some scary pressure numbers coming out of the ECMWF... central pressure down to ~960mb on the lastest run right off Whangarei on Sunday 12am... And 850 winds to 165km/h offshore in the Brett marine area. 8o

I think the GFS has a really good handle on this one!
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Re: Deep subtropical LOW: Jul 25-29th

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

one thing is, there is no real high pressure to the SE of the system, i..e its not running into a high pressure system....not like the one we had last time...was that last winter or the winter before? (with big easterly winds that caused damage)
but, being a rapidly deepening system, there will be very strong winds concentrated around the center....so if the center can come shore, then this system has the potential to be much worse than a ex tropical cyclone normaly brings us!
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Re: Deep subtropical LOW: Jul 25-29th

Unread post by Willoughby »

Yes the Tasman Sea is becoming a cyclonegenesis MACHINE }8D

Beautiful winters morning here.
Is this the GFS?
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Re: Deep subtropical LOW: Jul 25-29th

Unread post by jamie »

Foggy wrote:Is this the GFS?
I think i recall Paul saying its just what model they think is looking the best at the time they upload it. So i gathered by that that it can be any model :-k

Looking at the river levels in the waikato, they are all running nice and high. So if these two lows drop large amounts of rain we might well see some flooding. Long way out yes for the 2nd one but worth watching. This would apply for most of the country i amagine as the whole place is nice and sodden atm.
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Re: Deep subtropical LOW: Jul 25-29th

Unread post by Philip Duncan »

I had a number of people who were unhappy with my comments that winter would end up wet!! Well....here we are then!!

Very exciting looking storm...well, storm(s) actually....another one mid next week too.

Crazy stuff! :-)

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Re: Deep subtropical LOW: Jul 25-29th

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

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