Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- Vertigo
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Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
another thing i just noticed on the metservice 7 day model is ANOTHER south-bound deep low pressure system hot on the heels of this one, also set to strike us. yikes! this has certainly been an interesting winter!
edit: (ill call this next one the second, and the one i spotted the third) this third system seems to form out of a polar low which makes its way north to the waters NE of queensland, and intensifies once there. when things start forming there, they sure form quickly!
edit: (ill call this next one the second, and the one i spotted the third) this third system seems to form out of a polar low which makes its way north to the waters NE of queensland, and intensifies once there. when things start forming there, they sure form quickly!
Last edited by Vertigo on Thu 24/07/2008 08:58, edited 1 time in total.
- CHCH Weather Chaser
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Re: Deep subtropical LOW: Jul 25-29th
Looking at the metservice forecast imagery, there looks to be another one making land fill on Wednesday smashing AUckland with 43+ mm in a 6 hour period. See Below and run it through to Wednesday on the time line.
http://www.metservice.com/default/index ... st_7daytas
http://www.metservice.com/default/index ... st_7daytas
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
- Willoughby
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
A polar low? I don't think so. Pretty rare to see those form in NZ, actually the southern hemisphere as a whole is not a good place for them in general.Vertigo wrote:another thing i just noticed on the metservice 7 day model is ANOTHER south-bound deep low pressure system hot on the heels of this one, also set to strike us. yikes! this has certainly been an interesting winter!
edit: (ill call this next one the second, and the one i spotted the third) this third system seems to form out of a polar low which makes its way north to the waters NE of queensland, and intensifies once there. when things start forming there, they sure form quickly!
- Vertigo
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
just going from what i saw in the model run. looks fairly southerly. if not polar, then it was born in the forties.
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
This next low next week...not this weekend, next week (lol) could be a major rain bearer for the nations northern and western regions. Definitely worth keeping an eye on, especially those from Waikato to Nelson.
BTW - isn't it weird that we're talking about what is in theory a tropical cyclone (although not technically) slap bang in the middle of winter!? I know it's possible...but still, strange!
Phil.
www.weatherwatch.co.nz
BTW - isn't it weird that we're talking about what is in theory a tropical cyclone (although not technically) slap bang in the middle of winter!? I know it's possible...but still, strange!
Phil.
www.weatherwatch.co.nz
Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
"Polar low" doesn't mean "low from polar regions" though, it's like a very shortlived rapidly intensifying small scale feature- doesn't have the same structure as standard depressions.Vertigo wrote:just going from what i saw in the model run. looks fairly southerly. if not polar, then it was born in the forties.
- NZstorm
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
This low pulls a moist warm sector down across northern NZ Wedneday which will result in thunderstorms. Hopefully this will verify.
- NZstorm
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
David wrote
I would tend to ignore that run and see whats showing tomorrow. Its a sudden change.Also the models have taken a complete turn regarding the expected storm mid-week, almost suggesting it won't amount to anything at all now!
- Willoughby
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
^Yes... the ECMWF is still forecasting it very nicely (the thoroughbred).. as is the Canadian Met, BoM's GASP, and UKMO on the 00Z runs.
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
Yes, it's looking like a "Drewery" low pressure system scenario developing over us at the moment, well for the next coming week, with more lows moving across us from the NE or west, according to various models
JohnGaul
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
Sure looks promising for some heavy falls here in Canterbury.
- CHCH Weather Chaser
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
Heavy Rain for Canterbury? When? How much and why do you say that?
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
- Storm Struck
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
Yes models have swung back again in comparision with yesterdays, looks like a decent amount of heavy rain for us come Wednesday night/early Thursday and over reasonable duration too.
Its a N-NE fed low so there wont be any cold air being dragged into this one, for example no snow but perhaps at higher elevations.
Cheers
Jason.
Its a N-NE fed low so there wont be any cold air being dragged into this one, for example no snow but perhaps at higher elevations.
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
- CHCH Weather Chaser
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
That will be interesting on already very wet paddocks and grounds in the city. Steady thick drizzle out there now and next few days meant to be rain at times. I see blue skies have 20-50 mm possible on wed and thurs as well! Maybe flooding for us at some stage mid next week
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
I have created a new topic on this subject, regarding this possibilityMarkThomas wrote:That will be interesting on already very wet paddocks and grounds in the city. Steady thick drizzle out there now and next few days meant to be rain at times. I see blue skies have 20-50 mm possible on wed and thurs as well! Maybe flooding for us at some stage mid next week
JohnGaul
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
wow
latest gfs run has this next low as even bigger than this last one
(not as deep, but bigger in size)
will give more rain than the last one, as its slower moving
latest gfs run has this next low as even bigger than this last one
(not as deep, but bigger in size)
will give more rain than the last one, as its slower moving
- David
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
Yep looks like a lot of rain coming down with this system. There could be a ridge to the south of the South island which would slow it down. After yesterday we are on 166mm for July so it is looking certain to exceed 200mm as the final total.
Interesting to note that a few of the models are showing another decent low to cross the NI a few days after this next one!
Interesting to note that a few of the models are showing another decent low to cross the NI a few days after this next one!
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
models have this next low a very large system and not moving as fast so storng winds/rain look to hang around longer this time the models have this low around the 980 mark with it crossing the middle of the NI if that comes off the winds wil be more NNE over the NI this would mean more rain than thiis time round so i would expect some serious flooding in the NI in the usuall places
- CHCH Weather Chaser
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
wow!! The next low is really looking like its moved a lot further south and canterbury is going to cop quite a bit of it to. Yes it does look impressive and much larger and slower moving!! Thick drizzle here in CHCH. over 60mm rain here in last 3 days and with all this to come who knows...lake levels running very high and paddocks are still flooded...... its showing 977hpa now
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
Looking like a seriously heavy rain event for the North Island overnight Tuesday/Wednesday morning - considering how soggy the soils are already, there will considerable runoff - and I guess another week of the playing pitches being closed!
- David
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
See attached...169mm rainfall according to this forecast!
And this is for Auckland - I imagine Coromandel/BOP will receive heaps of rain.
And this is for Auckland - I imagine Coromandel/BOP will receive heaps of rain.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by David on Sun 27/07/2008 15:55, edited 1 time in total.
- spike_01
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
Looks pretty serious.. My Lady friend lives in Tauranga.. I will let her know as she drives a lot..
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Re: Another deep (Tasman) LOW: Jul 29-Aug 1st
50mm in six hours? For gfs to have that forecast, it must be serious, all right...rain is looking pretty widespread over much of the country.