Another Low Pressure system for the weekend 2-3 August

[Razor]

Is anyone else seeing another event this weekend for the North Island, which looks to be quite threatening in light of the current state of play?

And looking forther out to the second half of next week there may be more disturbed lows/ fronts firing in from the west, perhaps a little more winterery too.

What a monumental winter we are having!

[carrot]

More rain.. yay

[Vertigo]

i wish i could confirm, but i cant access the most convenient model (the 7 day forecast on metservice). hope youre right!

[gllitz]

oh joy...more rain.......can hardly contain my excitement, as well............

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

yes, i saw one hitting CHCH on sunday around 20mm -30mm it was showing this morning. Going to be very soggy grounds. I think the rain is very close now, getting very low now the cloud and dull (duller than the dullness today)

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

The next one should be more westerly-ish?

Makes a change from the boring anticyclones we have been getting lately
JohnGaul
NZTS

[RWood]

Message to all those who crave "interesting" weather - right now several weeks of anticyclonic westerly pattern with enough wind to assist drying would be a damned good idea.

[Manukau heads obs]

looks like a high to move in the end of next week?
yes, hopefully it can stick around for a while...although SE winds mean cold winds up here,and going cold after being so wet is not so good

[Shepherds Valley WX]

I agree with RWood...I have recorded 293mm (in manual and automatic guages) of rain for July and the ground at our place is saturated from the continual rain. RWood, do you what is the record rainfall for July in the Wellington region? 293mm is a new record for my station and we may top 300mm by the end of the day. This is with a YTD total of 891.6mm so 300mm in one month is significant - I'd be interested to hear other Station owners opinions in the Wellington region.

[RWood]

Kelburn/city record for July is 309mm (1892). Don't know the records for the rest of the area, haven't got the summarised data to hand for it. Kaitoke had 321mm in July 1984, I'm sure the records will have some bigger values than that from Kaitoke headworks and Wainuiomata. This has been a "month of two halves" - second half much wetter and cloudier than the first, which apart from one downpour was comparatively dry and sunny.

An important factor in the saturation which has been overlooked by everybody I've heard comment is the autumn - although it was rather sunny and generally settled there were several major downpours and the total rainfall was quite high, and strong drying winds were almost entirely lacking. I noticed that the soil in my area and nearby ones where I take walks was quite wet at the end of May (the Kapiti area had a dry May in the anticyclonic S/SE conditions but has since made up for that). June only had average rainfall, most of which fell near the end but the wet July has topped everything up with a vengeance.

[Shepherds Valley WX]

Thanks for that RW - with todays further rain, my station has recorded 316mm for the month. Still drizzling here, but hopefully the region gets a chance to dry out slightly tommorow. The Hutt River was high today and we saw a lot of slips and surface flooding around the place while at work....

[Manukau heads obs]

that sure is alot of rain in the hutt valley!

[jamie]

http://www.ew.govt.nz/PageFiles/3/sitrep13.pdf

[jamie]

Its the latest update from EW on the regions response to the rain with what all the river levels are doing and what height they are forcast to get to. Thought it was interesting as to how high it is going to get to on on Sunday.

[Michael]

Cant really see any respite in the foreseeable future (Here anyway).Showers? Days are getting a little longer noticeally though so it could be October.

[Vertigo]

ok, this system is starting to look really interesting. itll be short and sharp, with metservice forecasting a high risk of thunderstorms over much of the north island as it passes by, with a low risk of some of them turning severe! it fronts are apparently going to be fairly active. while the torrential rain could become a problem, i welcome the lightning show!

Y21yqP9xLKEuY2ygLJqyY2AbLKW0Y3Emol8lZQN4ZQtjZmNjZQNhM2yz.gif

[Manukau heads obs]

looking forward to it
,although some sunshine and settled weather I also look forward to!
as feeling a bit stormed out at the moment!

[Wildland]

I agree with RWood...I have recorded 293mm (in manual and automatic guages) of rain for July and the ground at our place is saturated from the continual rain. RWood, do you what is the record rainfall for July in the Wellington region? 293mm is a new record for my station and we may top 300mm by the end of the day. This is with a YTD total of 891.6mm so 300mm in one month is significant - I'd be interested to hear other Station owners opinions in the Wellington region.

I only have data for the past 4 years, but FWIW-
rainfall for Tawa
July 2005 124 mm, YTD 525 mm
July 2006 205 mm, YTD 719 mm
July 2007 140 mm, YTD 419 mm
July 2008 217 mm, YTD 760 mm

(YTD figure is the yearly figure to the end of July)

So, July 2008 was the wettest July for Tawa in four years, but it is too early to say whether it will the the wettest year overall.

RWood's comment about a month of two halves is reflected in stats here too. Apart from the 42 mm that fell in Tawa on the 12th, only 83 mm was recorded during the first fortnight of July 2008 which featured several sunny days and we also benefitted from the drying effects of strong winds. The latter part of the month has seen some good “blows” but not enough to off-set the steady rain. The front- and backyards here are a quagmire!

[Ryan Thomas]

Come on haven't you had enough already? And damaging tornadoes possible.. Wow. Wonder how many of them will go unnoticed?.. Except for a trail of fallen trees of course

[03Stormchaser]

Notice they dont say "Damaging 'mini' tornadoes":P

[Michael]

I saw one this earlier this winter,a sheet of iron came off a roof,just for 5 seconds it made a fuss ie leaves going round and round on rooves etc.

[Peter]

Can't recall when I've seen a Thunderstorm Outlook for Auckland that has included the phrase "damaging tornados possible" 8o This sort of severe weather is supposed to stay safely in the Plains states in the US where I can chase it safely once a year, and then return to quiet, boring and safe New Zealand weather!

[GraemeWi]

Some anvils to the North and West of Auckland this evening - just to whet our appetite

IMG_6432.jpg

[Cameo2]

yes saw those too from the train. Looked to be part of an extended weak band of showers.

[NZstorm]

Yes, quite unstable skies today with isolated heavy showers about.

According to GFS the trough early Sunday morning should be quite thundery too with much colder upper air.
I see this Sunday morning system as potentially having the best thunderstorms for Auckland but the Saturday front has potential. Looks good atm on the satellite in the western Tasman. tornadoes