WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH

[Janos]

I'm seeing heavy snow for Southland ,Otago Thursday afternoon possibly to sea level for a time.Alps in for a big dump and continuing into Friday.Nothing to sea level in Canterbury, all snow above 500m i'm afriad.

Ill let you know....

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Wow,metservice 7 day map update shows not a thing for Canterbury except maybe one or two showers Friday. However, tuesday is looking very wet!!! Definately intensified since earlier. Still long way out though.

Sitting on 16 degrees at Jeffs Weather Station!!

accuweather.com for CHCH is saying now 60.7cm of snow occuring aug 8,9,10. Lol what a joke!!!! Most untrustworthy site there could be if you ask me!

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Latest (5pm) GFS model shows 30mm occurring on Tuesday and into Wednesday with 850mb temps getting down to -8 and temps around 1 or 2 degrees so snow to low levels next tuesday is looking better. This friday and sat 2mm for the whole entire period showing! Maybe the sun will be out lol

[Storm Struck]

It doesnt matter what day has what amount of rainfall as per the models, just because its what it is showing doesnt mean anything just wait until the time comes and stop posting totals all the time .
As for Friday,Saturday looks like abit of a non event at this stage maybe a few showers here and there, with a better chance for good rain as if we havnt had enough by Tuesday.
Cheers
Jason.

[carrot]

Accuweather went from forecasting 60cm of snow down to zero percipitation for the 8th/9th/10th
At this moment in time i'd say nothing special at all this weekend, light showers fri/sat

[Lawrence]

Accuweather went from forecasting 60cm of snow down to zero percipitation for the 8th/9th/10th
At this moment in time i'd say nothing special at all this weekend, light showers fri/sat

Be about right for Canterbury, saying that you might get some snow to sea level about Kaikoura on Friday, just.
Very cold and frosty over the weekend for most of the south island though.
Mountains and Southland and the south of Otago will do well out of it with some light snow/sleet flurries to low levels at times, other than that it will be mostly moderate snow showers above 500m.
Rest of Canterbury, very cold with occasional cold rain and sleet on the banks with scattered cloud during the day falling to -3 C in sheltered areas at night with the possibility of fog in parts.

[Myself]

No doubt though the next post in this thread will be an "OMG- GFS sez 1m of snow!".

GFS model at 5am this morning showing real back off in precipitation. Infact hardly a thing now. Just 14mm and around 8mm for this system. Really is looking like a non event. Infact im thinking Sat might have some morning showers and thats it. Really does seem like an anti climax developing. May even be fine periods with so little. One thing is consistent and thats that the precipitation totals are always dropping. Even metservice 7 day rain forecast shows real back of hardly hitting here at all.

[Ryan Thomas]

A weekend with fine weather this winter? You must be lying... Actually I think its only happened once or twice? A fine Saturday..

[gopolks]

Cold southerlies and showers on friday and saturday according to the met service.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

im saying fine period and dry weather for sat and sun with maybe afternoon showers friday in my own opinion. Tuesday looking far more interesting. Latest GFS model still liking tuesday at this stage. MS 7 day rain map shows something forming late next week too. 984hpa cold front.

[gllitz]

Hmmm....I'm not so sure now, that we won't see some snow...not a ton of it, or anything, but a little bit...enough to enjoy watching it fall, at least...I doubt any will accumulate.

The latest GFS run has shifted back to having a bit more precip involved with it and some very nice THK and 850 temps for an "extended" period of time...I'd say late FRI arvo into early SAT morning is where we will see some flakes, if this latest run is anything to go by, but again, all subject to change! ...gonna be a cold weekend, for sure...(now to check NOGAPS...if it will EVER UPDATE!! grrr...)

EDIT: NOGAPS is useless right now...can't make heads or tails of it...too big of a scale to be readable...oh well...

[Lawrence]

The latest GFS run has shifted back to having a bit more precip involved with it and some very nice THK and 850 temps for an "extended" period of time...I'd say late FRI arvo into early SAT morning is where we will see some flakes, if this latest run is anything to go by, but again, all subject to change! ...gonna be a cold weekend, for sure...(now to check NOGAPS...if it will EVER UPDATE!! grrr...)

Might be a bit of thunder too on Friday evening

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Thunder would be nice! Anyways, yes looking like snow to about 200m with maybe flurries to lower levels but nothing to be excited about, just be very cold thats all! Who knows though. Just looked at the M/S 7 day map and it shows wed 6pm a low of 958hpa to the SW of New Zealand. This is the run starting from 6 hr periods of 6pm tonight so after 6 it will update and may disappear. There is a high blocking it to the SE of New Zealand at this stage. Otherwise may have been interesting!

[Janos]

Karshvardidgâh

As promised conditions are magnificent....warm and sunny...

But tomorrow may be different.

[Lawrence]

Karshvardidgâh

As promised conditions are magnificent....warm and sunny...

But tomorrow may be different.

Yes,it's been quite nice here as well.Should change later though where you are.
Tomorrow will be interesting as well and hopefully different

[Ice Maiden]

Looks like the change is beginning in Dunedin, the SE wind has picked up in the last hour and the clouds are marching through as the front approaches.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Latest GFS model shows 9.2mm with less than 24 hours away from the front. Temps looking around 2-4 degrees. Maybe a little warmer once again than this mornings. Still not sure anything is going to evenuate from this. Maybe just odd shower and very cold winds.

[gllitz]

Nw that we are less than 24 hours from this event happening, I think it is time we all just sat back and watch what happens...I'm not gonna speculate anymore...the models are not likely to change much this close to the event...it's probably best now to observe and report, I would have thought....

[gopolks]

If they are saying snow to 200 metres, they might as well say sea level.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Just the usual boring and not very interesting stratus and rain, associated with a cold southerly change.
The surface barometer too high for interesting weather
However, the North Island, again for interesting weather with the joining of the systems.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Smeagol]

Hmm... According to the Metservice, I might see some snow tomorrow...

Lets see what happens!

[Lawrence]

Well that's the first front through,waiting for the next one.Cold but not cold enough yet

[Razor]

Raining here now. Just starting to cool off a bit

[gllitz]

Still have a ways to go to cool off enough for snow, tho...The high today of 7 may have already been reached?
I see Ashburton weather site reporting 4.2C with sleet fall...Rakaia at 2C and Castle Hill at 1.6 (but it is cold up there, anyway)
I think we probably won't see any really cold temps with frozen precip (if any) til later this arvo/evening...we'll see!

[Razor]

Warming up again, sun peaking through.