WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH

[frosty]

just watching the tv1 weather tonight and it looks like a wintery blast is heading for the south island later this week with snow to sea level in the south.also the met service 10 day forcast is predicting snow to low levels on friday 8th for canterbury.had a look on weatherzone and the maps look pretty good for this event,i know its a wee way out but this is the fun part.anyone else got any thoughts on this.

[carrot]

It is a wee way out and I don't see much eventuating unfortunatley.
Hope we do get the third snowfall this winter in Chch though, fingrers crossed

[Michael]

Both ECMWF and GFS looks like more Rain always for the Top of the north island,and still have to get rid of the SW that will arrive before then.ECMWF has it a little more north of Cape Reianga but given of late it will be that just amount furthur south to wipe another weekend out.Let alone all the slips about.GFS always looks as nasty as it always does,yellows/greens here,but it looks a normal pattern but then whats not.

[melja]

Fizzzzzer dont get to excited about snow in canterbury with that one, i would say more of a chance tomorrow

[gllitz]

I'm afraid I have to agree with melja on this one...even the MS 7 day rain forecast shows NO indication of a southerly blast, so not sure where that all came from...granted, there was ONE model run which showed it, but it was only ONE run and the runs since then (three) have had it pull back by a lot...things may change, but not holding my breath...and yes, numbers are good for late tomorrow night, but it won't be much, if anything at all...precip amounts are too low.

[gopolks]

Most sites are predicting fine weather for late this week, a high of 13 for Friday

[Storm Struck]

When i seen that on one news tonight with snow to sea level in the south and a low coming down from the north with rain over the north island, I thought oh darn that could be an interesting combinationn ie big snowfall.
But yes I cant see where MS even gets this idea from, models show nothing of any significance apart from some scatterd showers on friday.
Cheers
Jason.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

There should be a weak anticyclone to the SW of Fiordland which could enhance a cold weather change next Friday but then the next oncoming trough could make this a brief event.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[spwill]

Yes, EC has been wanting to develop a High to the south of NZ delivering very cold air to NZ.

[gllitz]

Hmmm...I see what you mean, now...and now the 7-day M/S rain maps make sense...

EDIT: Instead of a Low coming up from the southern ocean, it is a High coming up from the south, and the cold air really being pushed with it...NOGAPS hasn't come into line yet, but GFS and ECMWF both showing it...GFS THK levels a bit high, tho...we'll see...many days still to go, and many more model runs...

[gllitz]

Well, there ya go...GFS has shifted back now...nice "numbers" showing, for sure...one to watch.
See attached.
NOGAPS still hasn't "come onboard," as it were, but getting closer...
We might even get a bit of a "teaser" tonight b/w 9pm and 12 am...

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Blue skies issued at 12:35pm. Must be confident as they are saying snow "to sea level and not "near sea level"

"Friday 80% 3-5 Cool/Cold Increasing SW Snow to Sea Level
Saturday 80% 5-10 Very Cold Strong SW Snow to Sea Level "

[Inny Binny]

Well, Mark...the precip. is forecast to be rubbish so far, and if you read BlueSkies forecast, you will notice it said snow flurries, not snow showers or straight snow.

[Lawrence]

Pretty confident with this one for snow to sea level for Christchurch and Canterbury with the numbers so far,best we've had this year in my opinion,could change though in next few days

[carrot]

Good to see people are thinking snow
I still think its a no for snow. Only time will tell.

[trickytiger]

I also think it's a no for snow, wrong time for snow anyway, going to the coast this weekend, so would rather have the snow when i get back.

[gllitz]

I'd like to know your reasoning, carrot and trickytiger, 'cuz the way i see it, I am in agreement with Karsh on this one...this HAS to be the "best numbers" we've had this season (which, of course, will change, but nevermind...)...Kinda hard to argue with THK levels of around 520 and 850 temps of -7/-8C with a measurable amount (albeit marginal) of precip around and southerlies....hmmm...and having said all the above it will now go to allkashitzen in the next 15 minutes with the next run....hehehe...we'll see...

[trickytiger]

yes it is hard to argue about this one, but I have a feeling the weather models might change a whole lot more, which is causing me to think that there will be no snow. It would be unusual to get snow again this year anyway since it doesn't very often snow more than once every 2 years down to sea level. As it gets closer i may change my mind and hope i do.

[gllitz]

yes it is hard to argue about this one, but I have a feeling the weather models might change a whole lot more, which is causing me to think that there will be no snow. It would be unusual to get snow again this year anyway since it doesn't very often snow more than once every 2 years down to sea level. As it gets closer i may change my mind and hope i do.

Fair enough, mate....fair enough...

[carrot]

Pretty much what tricky wrote.
If the forecast was for tomorrow my opinion would change. Its too far out, i think things will change.

[Inny Binny]

Well it certainly isn't the wrong time for snow, only a few years ago did we have snow on the 19th of September if I remember...early August is still one of the coldest times of the year.

I really don't like the look of this one though, pretty much because it seems there will be next to no precipitation.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

latest GFS model run is very similair indeed to the 11am run. Showing around 1mm more precipitation and slightly lower temperatures if anything, but very very similair. You have to look real close to pick out the differences!

[trickytiger]

ok, maybe this might happen then, i'm going to wait a little longer before i fully decide if it's a no, yes or maybe though. See if it continues to stay similar or if it changes

[Storm Struck]

Interesting indeed for late Friday/early Saturday, but those precipitation looks marginal at this stage hope that changes closer to the time.
As for tonight could get interesting, the skies have actually been unstable looking this evening and the last few radars have indicated some isolated heavy bits about.
Hopefully that precipitation sticks around when it dips to 525 tonight, also MSLP shows an ok amount of precipitation for the midnight run mainly over the Plains though.
Cheers
Jason.

[Janos]

Light snow on some of Dunedins hills.