WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
just watching the tv1 weather tonight and it looks like a wintery blast is heading for the south island later this week with snow to sea level in the south.also the met service 10 day forcast is predicting snow to low levels on friday 8th for canterbury.had a look on weatherzone and the maps look pretty good for this event,i know its a wee way out but this is the fun part.anyone else got any thoughts on this.
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
It is a wee way out and I don't see much eventuating unfortunatley.
Hope we do get the third snowfall this winter in Chch though, fingrers crossed
Hope we do get the third snowfall this winter in Chch though, fingrers crossed
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
Both ECMWF and GFS looks like more Rain always for the Top of the north island,and still have to get rid of the SW that will arrive before then.ECMWF has it a little more north of Cape Reianga but given of late it will be that just amount furthur south to wipe another weekend out.Let alone all the slips about.GFS always looks as nasty as it always does,yellows/greens here,but it looks a normal pattern but then whats not.
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
Fizzzzzer dont get to excited about snow in canterbury with that one, i would say more of a chance tomorrow
- gllitz
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
I'm afraid I have to agree with melja on this one...even the MS 7 day rain forecast shows NO indication of a southerly blast, so not sure where that all came from...granted, there was ONE model run which showed it, but it was only ONE run and the runs since then (three) have had it pull back by a lot...things may change, but not holding my breath...and yes, numbers are good for late tomorrow night, but it won't be much, if anything at all...precip amounts are too low.
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
Most sites are predicting fine weather for late this week, a high of 13 for Friday
- Storm Struck
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
When i seen that on one news tonight with snow to sea level in the south and a low coming down from the north with rain over the north island, I thought oh darn that could be an interesting combinationn ie big snowfall.
But yes I cant see where MS even gets this idea from, models show nothing of any significance apart from some scatterd showers on friday.
Cheers
Jason.
But yes I cant see where MS even gets this idea from, models show nothing of any significance apart from some scatterd showers on friday.
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
There should be a weak anticyclone to the SW of Fiordland which could enhance a cold weather change next Friday but then the next oncoming trough could make this a brief event.
JohnGaul
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JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
Yes, EC has been wanting to develop a High to the south of NZ delivering very cold air to NZ.
- gllitz
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
Hmmm...I see what you mean, now...and now the 7-day M/S rain maps make sense...
EDIT: Instead of a Low coming up from the southern ocean, it is a High coming up from the south, and the cold air really being pushed with it...NOGAPS hasn't come into line yet, but GFS and ECMWF both showing it...GFS THK levels a bit high, tho...we'll see...many days still to go, and many more model runs...
EDIT: Instead of a Low coming up from the southern ocean, it is a High coming up from the south, and the cold air really being pushed with it...NOGAPS hasn't come into line yet, but GFS and ECMWF both showing it...GFS THK levels a bit high, tho...we'll see...many days still to go, and many more model runs...
"Saru mo ki kara ochiru"
- gllitz
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
Well, there ya go...GFS has shifted back now...nice "numbers" showing, for sure...one to watch.
See attached.
NOGAPS still hasn't "come onboard," as it were, but getting closer...
We might even get a bit of a "teaser" tonight b/w 9pm and 12 am...
See attached.
NOGAPS still hasn't "come onboard," as it were, but getting closer...
We might even get a bit of a "teaser" tonight b/w 9pm and 12 am...
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
Blue skies issued at 12:35pm. Must be confident as they are saying snow "to sea level and not "near sea level"
"Friday 80% 3-5 Cool/Cold Increasing SW Snow to Sea Level
Saturday 80% 5-10 Very Cold Strong SW Snow to Sea Level "
"Friday 80% 3-5 Cool/Cold Increasing SW Snow to Sea Level
Saturday 80% 5-10 Very Cold Strong SW Snow to Sea Level "
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
Well, Mark...the precip. is forecast to be rubbish so far, and if you read BlueSkies forecast, you will notice it said snow flurries, not snow showers or straight snow.
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
Pretty confident with this one for snow to sea level for Christchurch and Canterbury with the numbers so far,best we've had this year in my opinion,could change though in next few days
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
Good to see people are thinking snow
I still think its a no for snow. Only time will tell.
I still think its a no for snow. Only time will tell.
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
I also think it's a no for snow, wrong time for snow anyway, going to the coast this weekend, so would rather have the snow when i get back.
- gllitz
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
I'd like to know your reasoning, carrot and trickytiger, 'cuz the way i see it, I am in agreement with Karsh on this one...this HAS to be the "best numbers" we've had this season (which, of course, will change, but nevermind...)...Kinda hard to argue with THK levels of around 520 and 850 temps of -7/-8C with a measurable amount (albeit marginal) of precip around and southerlies....hmmm...and having said all the above it will now go to allkashitzen in the next 15 minutes with the next run....hehehe...we'll see...
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
yes it is hard to argue about this one, but I have a feeling the weather models might change a whole lot more, which is causing me to think that there will be no snow. It would be unusual to get snow again this year anyway since it doesn't very often snow more than once every 2 years down to sea level. As it gets closer i may change my mind and hope i do.
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
Fair enough, mate....fair enough...trickytiger wrote:yes it is hard to argue about this one, but I have a feeling the weather models might change a whole lot more, which is causing me to think that there will be no snow. It would be unusual to get snow again this year anyway since it doesn't very often snow more than once every 2 years down to sea level. As it gets closer i may change my mind and hope i do.
"Saru mo ki kara ochiru"
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
Pretty much what tricky wrote.
If the forecast was for tomorrow my opinion would change. Its too far out, i think things will change.
If the forecast was for tomorrow my opinion would change. Its too far out, i think things will change.
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
Well it certainly isn't the wrong time for snow, only a few years ago did we have snow on the 19th of September if I remember...early August is still one of the coldest times of the year.
I really don't like the look of this one though, pretty much because it seems there will be next to no precipitation.
I really don't like the look of this one though, pretty much because it seems there will be next to no precipitation.
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
latest GFS model run is very similair indeed to the 11am run. Showing around 1mm more precipitation and slightly lower temperatures if anything, but very very similair. You have to look real close to pick out the differences!
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
ok, maybe this might happen then, i'm going to wait a little longer before i fully decide if it's a no, yes or maybe though. See if it continues to stay similar or if it changes
- Storm Struck
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
Interesting indeed for late Friday/early Saturday, but those precipitation looks marginal at this stage hope that changes closer to the time.
As for tonight could get interesting, the skies have actually been unstable looking this evening and the last few radars have indicated some isolated heavy bits about.
Hopefully that precipitation sticks around when it dips to 525 tonight, also MSLP shows an ok amount of precipitation for the midnight run mainly over the Plains though.
Cheers
Jason.
As for tonight could get interesting, the skies have actually been unstable looking this evening and the last few radars have indicated some isolated heavy bits about.
Hopefully that precipitation sticks around when it dips to 525 tonight, also MSLP shows an ok amount of precipitation for the midnight run mainly over the Plains though.
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
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Re: WINTERY BLAST STARTING FRIDAY 8TH
Light snow on some of Dunedins hills.
Berkshire North of Te Anau west of Hokitika.