Active trough for Monday

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 22/02/2004 16:48

I see the Met Service have another heavy rain warning out for lower NI.
Should see some very moist air directed onto the NI tomorrow so heavy thundery rain looks likely for the ranges. Also cold unstable air also moving onto NZ from the southwest could lead to a clash of airmasses.

Today's sounding from Invercargill shows upper air cold down there with freezing level around 1400m and a bit unstable. Satellite pics indicate isolated ts over East Otago this afternoon.

A fine day for a change in AK with temps around 23C.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 22/02/2004 22:23

Yes Steven.
It could be interesting what else may happen as a result in the weather pattern we are now in.
With all the recent floods in the lower NI, record low barometer pressure readings, wiggly-woggly jet streams, hurricane force winds,depressions tracking more higher in the roaring forties, not much monsoonal activity around northern Australia. There have been an absence of established anticyclones which normally track over us this time of the year.
This a good example of climate change

The ECWMF model for the end of the week looks interesting with TC activity linking to a deepening low of the NSW/Lower Queensland coast.
This will benefit the lower NI with clean-up operations this week with a narrow anticyclonic weather over us ... but then

...this system could drift south of NZ next weekend bringing drizzly showers over much of the country.

Where is summer, most people will ask??:-k

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 22/02/2004 22:51

This would give them much welcome E-NE winds which the Manawatu/Wanganui areas are sheltered from

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: This will benefit the lower NI with clean-up operations this week with a narrow anticyclonic weather over us ... but then

...this system could drift south of NZ next weekend bringing drizzly showers over much of the country.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 23/02/2004 12:52

Big Cb!! $\:D/$ oh yeh!

It's a colosal beast!

It's like the size of the whole of the central North Island!, except for Northland and those type of parts. Am I getting excited over nothing, is this just some upper level high cloud?

This could come near you Steven W, mayby a pic or two later. Thunderstorms are forecast (possibly) for Auckland tonight. Metvuw's forecast charts indicate heavy / intense falls likely over from about Auckland to the Palmerston North area!!! But then again I could be wrong.

lol

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 23/02/2004 15:39

That is a Thunderstorm clump in the Tasman Sea heading this way but this type of development can weaken very quickly, however it look's like Met Service have their forecast about right.

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Mon 23/02/2004 16:24

"That's no moon... it's a SPACE STATION"

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Mon 23/02/2004 17:53

It was two smaller system on the 11am picture, it's just grown (!).

G

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Mon 23/02/2004 18:04

not much monsoonal activity around northern Australia.

Cairns rainfall for February so far is over 700mm,must be some moonsoon activity up in the far north.
I have been keeping an eye on the tropics of late because I will be spending a year there from July,looking forward to experiencing a tropical climate especially the wet season.

Cheers.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 23/02/2004 18:08

Some very moist air being dragged into the Tasman Sea from subtopics and it is this high dewpoint air that has triggered the active cb's. Should see more cb's develop with a fair chance of a thunderstorm or two reaching our shores overnight.

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Mon 23/02/2004 19:10

Geeze - solid orange just about at the edge of the radar...

Wonder what we will get out of it?

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 23/02/2004 19:29

More or less continuous spherics on the am band but it is quite distant.

Current dewpoint temperature in Auckland is 16C, I expect this to rise to about 20C tonight with a good chance of thunderstorms.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 23/02/2004 19:50

looking ominous out to the west of me...
cloud really thickening up
i think we are in for a dooze!

ScottyD · Unread post by **ScottyD** » Mon 23/02/2004 20:14

Does anyone have sky digital? What is the radar lookinglike for auckland? Is there anyway of getting up to date radar images on the internet? I'm in Albany and the cloud has gotten very thick over the last half hour. Hopefully i'll see some lightning

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 23/02/2004 20:44

8pm satellite. Shows good thunderstorm development out to the west.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 23/02/2004 20:52

i have
it shows purple
its very dramatic
its like a big square block
but its moving ESE
and looks like it might go south of auckland city...but it could swing up and over more yet...

Manukau heads obs · Mon 23/02/2004 21:06

i took a web cam photo of the TV for ya!
8:45pm
it shows it might just swing onto auckland after all!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 23/02/2004 21:22

I expect further Thunderstorms to propagate along the line so eventually a storm should hit Auckland. Thats my theory.

Frequent static on am band. Low overcast here.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 23/02/2004 21:25

looking at the next pic, thats what happening, correct steven
yes,
the line is getting more tilted now, so, yes, its going to get shoved onto us as the low rotates more...
i can only just make out some very dull flashes of way to the SW a while ago...
could be a exciting night....
but the wife wants me to go to bed now, LOL!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 23/02/2004 21:38

Thanks Brian for the photo .It shows the Cb that is closest to the North Island and there are more developing out west of that .

Manukau heads obs · Mon 23/02/2004 21:41

just seen a good lightning flash...multi strobe sheet flashing

yes, the active area has not moved into the waikato, its still out to the SW of us...

latest rain radar shows it is getting slowly closer
will be another 1 maybe even 2 hours yet though!
the internet rain radar will update soon...

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 23/02/2004 21:47

It was a very hazy day, and with the low cloud about, can't see any lightning here yet. Heaps static though.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 23/02/2004 22:13

I see MetService are forecasting thunderstorms here with the strong southerly change tomorrow morning.

Cant see it but then you never may know.

As i haven't got my video camera back yet from the repair shop, I hope nothing happens but if it does I hope there are others around who will record the event.
In the meanwhilst I hope the "Blob" delivers you Auckland/Waikato guys and give you an interesting night $\:D/$

JohnGaul
NZTS

Manukau heads obs · Mon 23/02/2004 22:14

just saw a flash out the window , corner of my eye, with the light on inside the room, so its getting closer!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 23/02/2004 22:18

Manukau heads observer wrote:just saw a flash out the window , corner of my eye, with the light on inside the room, so its getting closer!

What sort of coat was he wearing? ...
...sorry I thought you said ..flasher

....enjoy your night, wish I was there

I can hear distant sferix from here..

JohnGaul
NZTS

Manukau heads obs · Mon 23/02/2004 23:02

my lightning counter is up to 4 now...but they are very big flashes
had a few big drops or rain
rain radar shows not so intense of to the west, but real intense activiity moving down the front towards us (narrow line of intenisty), so it should fire up again soon
heading off to bed now...