Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

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predictions?

widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms, moderate winds
11
35%
widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms, gales
6
19%
widespread drizzle, moderate winds
0
No votes
isolated rain, some thunderstorms in places
5
16%
just rainy and boring
3
10%
itll fizzle and well complain about it!
2
6%
i like spoons
4
13%
 
Total votes: 31

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Vertigo
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Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by Vertigo »

there looks to be a depression wheeling in from the NW tasman this coming weekend. im picking that the tropical flow will mix with our current southerly flow, producing some rather heavy rain for the north island.

also, thought itd be fun to post a poll, and see what peoples broad predictions might be \:D/ just for fun of course.
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Last edited by Vertigo on Mon 18/08/2008 17:45, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 24th-25th Aug

Unread post by Inny Binny »

Looks like everyone is voting rather than replying!

Might be a little rain in some/many SI areas as well...
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 24th-25th Aug

Unread post by jamie »

widespread rain with the odd isolated thunder.
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 24th-25th Aug

Unread post by carrot »

isolated rain/ some thunder
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 24th-25th Aug

Unread post by David »

I would say for the North Island widespread rain with a few heavier falls (particularly western and central hill country of the NI including Taranaki). Perhaps some thunder. Vertigo, maybe you should have said 23rd-25th in the topic title, it may end up arriving on the 23rd going by the current predictions.

Not really what we need! In the 30 day period ending yesterday I recorded 332mm of rain 8o
If another 46mm rain falls by 31 Aug then that would make 600mm for Winter '08.
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 24th-25th Aug

Unread post by spike_01 »

widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms, moderate winds
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Next Low/ Storm cycle 22/23/24/ August

Unread post by Razor »

Well folks, only a brief respite.

Look out for the Waikato River system to be under more stress, Ruapehu to be under even more snow, and who knows what the story will be for the South Island- certainly more snow loading for the Alps, is it on the cards for a "warm advective" event on Saturday???

I see Blueskies are saying snow to 400m Staurday for Canty and lower on Sunday morning.

Metservice puting a host of Severe Weather Outlooks together:
Issued by MetService at 1:58pm Tuesday 19th August 2008

A couple of fronts are expected to move onto the west coast of the South Island during Friday in a northwesterly flow. This is likely to bring a period of heavy rain to Westland and Fiordland on Friday, with the heaviest falls likely to about the Westland ranges.

Over the weekend, a new low is expected to deepen in the Tasman Sea and move eastwards across New Zealand. There is some uncertainty among the computer models as to where this low will go, however it does look likely there will be a period of heavy rain over the northern South Island and central North Island during Saturday. As the low moves away on Sunday, heavy rain and severe gale southerlies may affect Wellington, Wairarapa and Marlborough, but the confidence in this severe weather is low as it will depend on the movement of the low.

As there is considerable uncertainty regarding the forecast movement of the weekends low, people are advised to keep up to date with the forecasts over the next few days as the areas likely to be affected by severe weather may change.
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Re: Next Low/ Storm cycle 22/23/24/ August

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Yeah ive seen that, i dont really know what to think about this one. GFS last couple runs has already been saying temps around what we have just had but totals look very very low now. 6.9mm for the next 5 or 6 days in the run so thats nothing at all. It looked real good the other night, showing around 140mm-150mm for this coming system but that turned out to be a hell of a FLUKE run!!! They do reckon its harder than normal to see where this low is heading so plenty of time to change. Just sit and watch but i was feeling more excited about the last one a week before it came than i am for this one. Lots of paddocks are still under water/ water logged on the outskirts of the city.
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by Willoughby »

Duplicate topics merged...
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by Razor »

woops sorry folks...the poll thing put me astray for some strange reason. Call it "snow brain" lol
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by Willoughby »

Razor wrote:woops sorry folks...the poll thing put me astray for some strange reason. Call it "snow brain" lol
No worries ;-) . If it starts to look interesting for the South Island, a thread split will occur as these threads seem to grow very large... :B

Looking great for thunderstorms on Saturday evening in the western North Island as the upper-trough nears. The GFS has 40mm+ for Hamilton in the system... by then it should be able to cope around here (not sure about Mercer).

Latest 00z LAPS run suggests the system will need to pull as much possible moisture out of the Coral Sea if it wants to get going!
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by Nev »

Razor wrote:woops sorry folks...the poll thing put me astray for some strange reason. Call it "snow brain" lol

Me too. Also, how about using the quotation marks provided when copying-and-pasting MetService warnings and data obtained from other web sites. It not only shows some respect for the original copyright, but also makes for easier reading and less likely to be misconstrued as plagiarism. ;)
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, looking like widespread rain Saturday into Sunday for the country. Looks like there is a good thunderstorm risk behind the front over the upper half of the North Island Sunday. :cool:
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Christchurch looking at around same as hamilton atm then with 36mm on GFS atm. Its gone from 96mm two days ago to 6mm this morning to 36mm tonight so just shows ya how this low doesnt know what its going to do! Im thinking the possibility of more significant snow to The Canterbury Ski Fields and Mt Ruapehu. Turoa will have over a 5m base after this me thinks....well it certainly is a real possibility. Just out of interest i wonder if thats ever been achieved before on a ski field? Ive personally never heard of so much snow in my 19 years on this planet!
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by jamie »

MarkThomas wrote: Just out of interest i wonder if thats ever been achieved before on a ski field? Ive personally never heard of so much snow in my 19 years on this planet!
Turoa is in unchanted territory now. I read it today that they are the first ski field to ever get a base that deep since commercial skiing began :eek:
Check out the graph of turoa here http://www.mtruapehu.com/winter/latest-news/ ... crazy amounts. I want to head down Sunday but not sure if the low will have cleared enough by then.
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by frosty »

be nice to have a wet weekend for a change. lol :lol: :B :mrgreen:
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

j--me--h wrote:Turoa is in unchanted territory now. I read it today that they are the first ski field to ever get a base that deep since commercial skiing began :eek:
Check out the graph of turoa here http://www.mtruapehu.com/winter/latest-news/ ... crazy amounts. I want to head down Sunday but not sure if the low will have cleared enough by then.
Some warm rain will soon sort out that huge Snow Base... Question is, how long will it take?
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i see the gfs model has delayed this system a day (i,e rain on sunday now instead of saturday)
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by ricky »

ECMWF is following a similar trend of slower movement as well..
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by Razor »

Tis looking snowy again Tuesday / Wednesday of next week for the Mainland...
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by gllitz »

Razor wrote:Tis looking snowy again Tuesday / Wednesday of next week for the Mainland...
Oh joy of joys...can hardly contain my excitement...... :| :| :| ...I am really over all of this...was nice while it lasted, but I'm ready for the warmth of spring and summer.
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by Razor »

gllitz wrote:
Razor wrote:Tis looking snowy again Tuesday / Wednesday of next week for the Mainland...
Oh joy of joys...can hardly contain my excitement...... :| :| :| ...I am really over all of this...was nice while it lasted, but I'm ready for the warmth of spring and summer.
Non \:D/ sense, its great to have action weather for a change!
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by gllitz »

Well, the latest LAPS model run is showing a 1041+ (wow!) high pressure ridge establishing itself over the Aussie bight over the next couple of days....should make for some interesting weather coming our way, for sure, if it stays there.
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by Razor »

gllitz wrote:Well, the latest LAPS model run is showing a 1041+ (wow!) high pressure ridge establishing itself over the Aussie bight over the next couple of days....should make for some interesting weather coming our way, for sure, if it stays there.
Whats your pick then Glitz...another storm..or will that High ridge through?
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Re: Low/NW flow ... 23th-25th Aug

Unread post by gllitz »

unsure, Razor...perhaps not reading the models right?...while the LAPS shows it establishing itself (granted, only goes to +48...still, 1040+ is pretty strong), NOGAPS has it weakening by the weekend and pushing out over the Tasman (brief SW flick with it for SI and causing a low to remain just to north of NI...dumping lots of rain on them)

GFS has the high weakening as well, but then "re-establishing" itself and moving to south of Tasmania by Tues/Wed...and we all know what that means...more cold, southerly/sw flows...but Tues/wed is too far out...

So it looks like we might have another slow moving system dumping lots of precip up north and for central NZ areas, by the GFS and NOGAPS, as a low coming off Brisbane gets sandwiched between highs...
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