Spring Westerlies

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TonyT
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by TonyT »

Manukau heads observer wrote:but what is normal anyway
Ah, the climatologists paradox. I fancy having that on my grave stone - "Departed from normal" :)
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by Vertigo »

very gusty cell overhead at the moment
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by spwill »

Cool today with some showers moving across this afternoon, I see some of the showers were thundery over Waikato with a couple of strikes there.
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by Philip Duncan »

Nev wrote:Yes, but I think it's the first time they actually stated that "the normal westerly gales, typical of October and November, are likely to be less frequent."

Ah, just found the NZ Hearld / Weather Watch article. Doesn't mention "more NE / less SW winds" though - (for those taking advantage of the 'foe function') it says...
...the country was in a "neutral" weather period that favoured prevailing westerly winds, meaning a cooler summer was likely for Auckland.
But yes, I would have thought that "neutral" would mean a more normal summer, rather than "a cooler summer than usual"?
The context of the conversation with the journalist was that we would have more prevailing westerlies meaning it was more likely that we'd have a cooler summer than last summer (not cooler than average). The article was very small and didn't include all of my comments to balance that statement!

I also said long range forecasts aren't very accurate and that because we're two islands in the roaring 40s on the edge of the world's largest ocean, that really anything can happen - but in my opinion westerlies were more likely than easterlies.
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by spwill »

westerlies were more likely than easterlies.
There is usually a propensity to get regular easterly flows over northern NZ from January with the troughing that takes place north of NZ.
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by NZstorm »

we would have more prevailing westerlies
We don't get much of the westerly flow here in Auckland over the summer months. Tends to be a NE/SW/Sea breeze mix associated with dominating anticyclones. We get our hot summer conditions in AK when the anticyclones park up just out to our east and maintain a subtropical origin N flow onto us. I have seen this occur in both La Nina and El Nino as well as enso neutral seasons. But I have no idea what this summer will be like. I think a dry spring points to a dry start to summer obviously. I have heard one long range forecaster predicting a hot summer!

As far as normal temps go, I suggest anything within 0.5C of the long term average for the period in question is normal.
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by Nev »

philip duncan wrote:The context of the conversation with the journalist was that we would have more prevailing westerlies meaning it was more likely that we'd have a cooler summer than last summer (not cooler than average). The article was very small and didn't include all of my comments to balance that statement!

I also said long range forecasts aren't very accurate and that because we're two islands in the roaring 40s on the edge of the world's largest ocean, that really anything can happen - but in my opinion westerlies were more likely than easterlies.
Interesting - thanks for the clarification Phil.

It amazes me how journalists can get these things so wrong! It must confuse the hell out of public when one day the NZ Herald headlines a story with 'Cooler summer forecast for Auckland', then the very next day it reports that forecasters predict 'above-average temperatures all over the country' for spring and early summer. The Dominion Post seems to continually be the worst offender though, with yesterdays headline of 'Get set for a calm, hot spring', when NIWA clearly stated that it expected average spring and early summer temps for both islands, with the possibly of the South Island being above average.

I think one of the problems with reporting these days is that journalists are now required to produce about 8 times the amount of stories than they would have in recent years (mostly without ever having to leave the office), and the sub-editors who would normally check this stuff no longer exist. Little wonder people have no faith in the media anymore and prefer to source their own info from the internet.

Also agree with what you say about long range forecasts and that 'really anything can happen'. A classic example being the summer of 2004-05. December was one of the coldest on record and then we ended up with one of the warmest Februarys on record, which included a record 38.7°C for Alexandra. And yet the summer average was 0.3°C below normal.

I guess we should be grateful though that at least Weatherwatch has a few more clues than the average reporter. ;)

End of rant - back to the weather.
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

a cold start for the NI this morning I see with the latest quick cold clearence , before the next NW wind change....
actualy a light SE wind across the lower end of lake Taupo here, where I am at the moment, and only 6oC here this morning...
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by Philip Duncan »

Nev wrote:
Interesting - thanks for the clarification Phil.

It amazes me how journalists can get these things so wrong! It must confuse the hell out of public when one day the NZ Herald headlines a story with 'Cooler summer forecast for Auckland', then the very next day it reports that forecasters predict 'above-average temperatures all over the country' for spring and early summer. The Dominion Post seems to continually be the worst offender though, with yesterdays headline of 'Get set for a calm, hot spring', when NIWA clearly stated that it expected average spring and early summer temps for both islands, with the possibly of the South Island being above average.

I guess we should be grateful though that at least Weatherwatch has a few more clues than the average reporter. ;)

End of rant - back to the weather.
Thanks for the endorsement Nev! :-) It really does depend on the reporter and your relationship with them... they're listening for key lines to print/air and sometimes those key lines don't make sense when removed from the other conversation. It's important for people like me to try and condense everything into one sentence (for a single quote)...for example, that quote was probably bang on what I'd said, but it was another sentence where i'd said "compared to last summer". I learn more and more with each interview I do...I've been doing weather interviews on-air for many years but print is new to me and is completely different. You can say "oh woops, that came out wrong" because by then it's in print!!

And I really don't believe in long range forecasts - I'm happy to give my thoughts on general conditions and it doesn't hurt to say "well it could go either way but here's my prediction" simply for an entertainment factor.

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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by TonyT »

philip duncan wrote:And I really don't believe in long range forecasts - I'm happy to give my thoughts on general conditions and it doesn't hurt to say "well it could go either way but here's my prediction" simply for an entertainment factor.
Well you do us a disservice then Phil - seasonal forecasting is not a philosophy you either believe in or dont, and certainly not an entertainment, but a scientific endeavour with a lot of work behind it. Those of us who work in that field understand the limitations and try hard to communicate them so that people can use seasonal forecast information sucessfully. Using the media to communicate with the public on subjects like this is fraught (as you are finding out) but saying "I dont believe" is a cop-out. Trivialising my field of work by calling it "an entertainment" is an insult.
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by Philip Duncan »

I meant from my point of view Tony, not from yours or NIWAs. I appreciate the huge amount of work that goes into long range seasonal forecasting...but long range weather forecasts simply don't exist...I can't tell you what it'll be like on Christmas Day - that's what I get asked. When it comes to long range climate predictions, then yes, I do believe that...understanding the patterns to predict the coming months is vital to our economy, but climate forecasts are much different to weather forecasts - ie, being asked if it'll be raining on January 15th.

But it is definitely an entertainment factor if I'm asked by a reporter what I think the weather will be like for her holiday in Paihia Jan 1st to Jan 8th or whether Christmas day will be sunny...and the public mostly appreciate that weather forecasts can't be made long range due to the chaotic nature of the weather...so please don't take my comment as an insult - it wasn't meant to be that way. I simply meant knowing what the weather be like on a particular date (over a month away) is something no one can do.

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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by TonyT »

Point taken then Phil, the discussion seemed to be about seasonal forecasting. All good.

Sorry to have to edit your posts, PM me or take it up with Foggy if you want further explanation. :)
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by carrot »

On the topic of spring westerlies I am very much foward looking to tomorrows 25 degrees forcast for christchurch.

Now as for long range forecasting I saw a man on TV who says that next winter will be worse than this years winter and that the shotover river will probably freeze over :eek: :eek: .

He also said (now im not certain this is correct) that December - End of February to be very warm and very dry.
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by Razor »

Sounds like lunacy to me :rolleyes:
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by Philip Duncan »

carrot wrote:On the topic of spring westerlies I am very much foward looking to tomorrows 25 degrees forcast for christchurch.

Now as for long range forecasting I saw a man on TV who says that next winter will be worse than this years winter and that the shotover river will probably freeze over :eek: :eek: .

He also said (now im not certain this is correct) that December - End of February to be very warm and very dry.
Hahaha...wow...that's amazing!! :lol:
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by TonyT »

carrot wrote:He also said (now im not certain this is correct) that December - End of February to be very warm and very dry.
Must live in Canterbury then. :)
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by Vertigo »

phil includes the laughing smiley, but in reality is considering making an article about it.

half joking.
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by Ryan Thomas »

21.7 at Jeffs already!!! And I have work 2:30-11 today! :mad:
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by carrot »

Just about 25 degrees in Christchurch with high cloud.
Might get up to around 28, seeing as it isn't even 11a.m. yet
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by Paul Mallinson »

There were 10,000 lightning strikes over Fiordland and Westland in the last 12 to 15 hours!

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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Yes, if that sun gets away from that high cloud as it heads towards the blue sky out to the west could get to 28 id agree there. 25 degrees at the moment with high cloud dominating and wind gusting to near 60km/h. 54km/h last gust at Jeffs in last 10 mins. Strong westerly!
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Very Quiet here windwise at the moment and 26C,I wonder how warm it is in Kaikoura for the seafest :-) .
Interesting week ahead next week :-w .
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by Nev »

Interesting! Reports of winds this morn downing trees and power-lines near Springfield, blowing over a campervan with family on board near Methven and a truck on Porters Pass losing its load of iron sheeting...
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Really Jason? Isn't that the great thing about weather. Down the road its doing one thing and up the road another! Still gusting very regularly to 50km/h at the moment and currently 26.1 degrees with this westerly. Sun will be out in the next hour if the skies are anything to go by at the moment!!
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Re: Spring Westerlies

Unread post by gllitz »

Burwood weather station showing 28.2 right now...and it sure feels that way as well...HOT HOT HOT!! (Had to come in from gardening...): http://www.zl3gp.co.nz/
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