NZ Weather Forum

Glancing the GFS this morning, the flick of cold unstable air for Thursday is still there in the modeling. Points to thunderstorms/hail for upper half of NI.

Daytime heating thursday should produce some interesting weather especially south of the Bombay Hills.

will the WSW wind not be a bit too strong i.e will suppress that day time heating?
(maybe not in inland areas)

actualy the latest surface forcast maps shows not much wind with this low expected on thursday.,.could be a good early spring chase day!?

I think the Waikato could do OK out of this, inland. Not sure the air is going to be all that unstable though.

I think the Waikato could do OK out of this, inland. Not sure the air is going to be all that unstable though.

Often with these situations you have to wait until the day to get a good idea of the instability. Lots of sunshine to warm the day up is whats needed. Thunderstorms/hail likely inland Waikato through to Bay of Plenty tomorrow. Certainly a chance for Auckland too around the middle of the day. Deep layer shear looks weak though.

Friday could be another thunderstorm day for northern areas with a southerly change coming in. Depends on the timing of the southerly, if we can get some good heating and a late afternoon southerly then I can see a good thunderstorm/hail on the way for east Auckland.

NZstorm wrote: Friday could be another thunderstorm day for northern areas with a southerly change coming in. Depends on the timing of the southerly, if we can get some good heating and a late afternoon southerly then I can see a good thunderstorm/hail on the way for east Auckland.

Curious - any reason why east Auckland in particular?
I seem to recall you mentioning some time ago that eastern suburbs seem to catch storms in a southerly flow better than other parts of Auckland (recently this happened on 25 August). If so there must be some factor influencing this?

my thoughts
further away from the SW coast sea breeze, but where that SW sea breeze will be meeting the SE wind coming out of the waikato (with lots of heating if the sun is out)
coromendel, Thames area, would also be a good spot for friday I think

Anyone else planning to go for a drive if things look good?

If i can have my assignment mostly done tonight and things look good... yes i will definitly go for a drive.

I plan my working week around weather watching

if I can get back in time for the school bus then I am in,LOL

Some polar airmass cb showers this morning coming in on the westerly.

Unstable skies around Auckland currently with some nice looking Cb clouds around, 12C with a dewpoint of 11c.
Is the timing of this air a bit early for us to hear thunder today

I notice these showers crossing Auckland have become heavier and I think just now even possibly thundery over the Gulf waters...

Uninterestingly, just one heavy shower for the day here at 10am, and WSW breezes peaking at 38km/h. Looks like it wasn't unstable enough for some action weather

wind slowly swinging more SW here now
I see some junky old frontal cloud to move up from the south with the southerly change

I cant see that there is going to be much action in the auckland area today....coromandel /BOP will be the place to be this afternoon I think?
yup, met service thinking the same thing:
http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... ormoutlook

theres some nice and puffy large Cu's going up at the moment in auckland.

Could see quite a bit of heavy shower cloud over E Auckland / Howick way today - just scraped the S'ern edges of Waiheke. Nothing significant here though - about 17°C and mostly sunny as well.

Nev wrote:Could see quite a bit of heavy shower cloud over E Auckland / Howick way today - just scraped the S'ern edges of Waiheke. Nothing significant here though - about 17°C and mostly sunny as well.

Yes Nev - the heaviest fall was shortly before 11am where I was, 3.5mm at home and 6mm reported at Eastern Beach. Been light rain here for the last 25 minutes or so.

The showers this afternoon were from cloud build ups over heated land but nothing very large though there are some stronger Cb clouds out to the east now probably on the wind change

Beautiful morning here in the Waikato!

if it was november and there was some left over instability , would be an interesting day, with the SSE wind....

Heading off topic here now but check out the huge activity West-NorthWest of Fiordland at the moment!! massive cbs showing on the sat pics and the lightning detector here is going crazy!

Yes, check out the thunderstorm risks:
http://www.metservice.com/default/index ... ormoutlook

Pretty good tonight into tomorrow, but obviously due to lifting over the terrain as opposed to daytime heating! The air aloft is pretty dry which is going to enhance the convection.