Unstable Thursday over North Island

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NZstorm
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Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by NZstorm »

Glancing the GFS this morning, the flick of cold unstable air for Thursday is still there in the modeling. Points to thunderstorms/hail for upper half of NI.
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by spwill »

Daytime heating thursday should produce some interesting weather especially south of the Bombay Hills.
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

will the WSW wind not be a bit too strong i.e will suppress that day time heating?
(maybe not in inland areas)
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

actualy the latest surface forcast maps shows not much wind with this low expected on thursday.,.could be a good early spring chase day!?
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by Myself »

I think the Waikato could do OK out of this, inland. Not sure the air is going to be all that unstable though.
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by NZstorm »

I think the Waikato could do OK out of this, inland. Not sure the air is going to be all that unstable though.
Often with these situations you have to wait until the day to get a good idea of the instability. Lots of sunshine to warm the day up is whats needed. Thunderstorms/hail likely inland Waikato through to Bay of Plenty tomorrow. Certainly a chance for Auckland too around the middle of the day. Deep layer shear looks weak though.

Friday could be another thunderstorm day for northern areas with a southerly change coming in. Depends on the timing of the southerly, if we can get some good heating and a late afternoon southerly then I can see a good thunderstorm/hail on the way for east Auckland.
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by David »

NZstorm wrote: Friday could be another thunderstorm day for northern areas with a southerly change coming in. Depends on the timing of the southerly, if we can get some good heating and a late afternoon southerly then I can see a good thunderstorm/hail on the way for east Auckland.
Curious - any reason why east Auckland in particular?
I seem to recall you mentioning some time ago that eastern suburbs seem to catch storms in a southerly flow better than other parts of Auckland (recently this happened on 25 August). If so there must be some factor influencing this?
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

my thoughts
further away from the SW coast sea breeze, but where that SW sea breeze will be meeting the SE wind coming out of the waikato (with lots of heating if the sun is out)
coromendel, Thames area, would also be a good spot for friday I think
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by ricky »

Anyone else planning to go for a drive if things look good?
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by jamie »

If i can have my assignment mostly done tonight and things look good... yes i will definitly go for a drive. :wave:
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

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I plan my working week around weather watching :crazy:
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

if I can get back in time for the school bus then I am in,LOL
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by NZstorm »

Some polar airmass cb showers this morning coming in on the westerly.
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by spwill »

Unstable skies around Auckland currently with some nice looking Cb clouds around, 12C with a dewpoint of 11c.
Is the timing of this air a bit early for us to hear thunder today
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by ricky »

I notice these showers crossing Auckland have become heavier and I think just now even possibly thundery over the Gulf waters...
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by David »

Uninterestingly, just one heavy shower for the day here at 10am, and WSW breezes peaking at 38km/h. Looks like it wasn't unstable enough for some action weather :(
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

wind slowly swinging more SW here now
I see some junky old frontal cloud to move up from the south with the southerly change

I cant see that there is going to be much action in the auckland area today....coromandel /BOP will be the place to be this afternoon I think?
yup, met service thinking the same thing:
http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... ormoutlook
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by Vertigo »

theres some nice and puffy large Cu's going up at the moment in auckland.
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by Nev »

Could see quite a bit of heavy shower cloud over E Auckland / Howick way today - just scraped the S'ern edges of Waiheke. Nothing significant here though - about 17°C and mostly sunny as well.
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

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Nev wrote:Could see quite a bit of heavy shower cloud over E Auckland / Howick way today - just scraped the S'ern edges of Waiheke. Nothing significant here though - about 17°C and mostly sunny as well.
Yes Nev - the heaviest fall was shortly before 11am where I was, 3.5mm at home and 6mm reported at Eastern Beach. Been light rain here for the last 25 minutes or so.
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by spwill »

The showers this afternoon were from cloud build ups over heated land but nothing very large though there are some stronger Cb clouds out to the east now probably on the wind change
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by Willoughby »

Beautiful morning here in the Waikato! :cool:
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

if it was november and there was some left over instability , would be an interesting day, with the SSE wind.... ;)
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by ricky »

Heading off topic here now but check out the huge activity West-NorthWest of Fiordland at the moment!! massive cbs showing on the sat pics and the lightning detector here is going crazy!
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Re: Unstable Thursday over North Island

Unread post by Myself »

Yes, check out the thunderstorm risks:
http://www.metservice.com/default/index ... ormoutlook

Pretty good tonight into tomorrow, but obviously due to lifting over the terrain as opposed to daytime heating! The air aloft is pretty dry which is going to enhance the convection.
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