A Neutral El Nino ??

[alpnz-wx]

Yesterdays ODT reports the Met Service is forecasting a neutral El Nino seasonal outlook. (For Spring)
Next sentence suggests Increased variability, possible widening of extremes of weather is expected as the country moves into neutral El Nino Southern Oscillations. , yup that sounds pretty neutral to me ...

[Manukau heads obs]

i think the story is that with no guiding hand, i.e no la nina or el nino, the climate will swing from being one to then being like the other,and back again, over weeks at a time, sort of thing

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Latest SOI (Oct 2nd)from the BOM shows a La Nina trend?

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Myself]

Latest SOI (Oct 2nd)from the BOM shows a La Nina trend?

JohnGaul
NZTS

My understanding is that the SOI may be showing a slight La Nina trend but there's no SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific to support a full La Nina.
I think there should be a newer BoM ENSO update than that also.

[Manukau heads obs]

the western pacific, and the coral sea, are warmer than normal, at the moment
(might be a good summer for TC's ! )

[RWood]

Go to: enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf (application_pdf Object)

[Can't paste this and it may not be quite accurate, but you can get there by going to the NOAA pages].

Full description and analysis of current state and outlooks. It is updated weekly.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Latest SOI from BOM show a very definate La Nina trend

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml

JohnGaul
NZThS