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A Neutral El Nino ??

Posted: Wed 15/10/2008 09:03
by alpnz-wx
Yesterdays ODT reports the Met Service is forecasting a neutral El Nino seasonal outlook. (For Spring)
Next sentence suggests Increased variability, possible widening of extremes of weather is expected as the country moves into neutral El Nino Southern Oscillations. :-S , yup that sounds pretty neutral to me ... :smile:

Re: A Neutral El Nino ??

Posted: Wed 15/10/2008 09:45
by Manukau heads obs
i think the story is that with no guiding hand, i.e no la nina or el nino, the climate will swing from being one to then being like the other,and back again, over weeks at a time, sort of thing

Re: A Neutral El Nino ??

Posted: Wed 15/10/2008 17:22
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Latest SOI (Oct 2nd)from the BOM shows a La Nina trend?

JohnGaul
NZTS

Re: A Neutral El Nino ??

Posted: Wed 15/10/2008 18:25
by Myself
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Latest SOI (Oct 2nd)from the BOM shows a La Nina trend?

JohnGaul
NZTS
My understanding is that the SOI may be showing a slight La Nina trend but there's no SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific to support a full La Nina.
I think there should be a newer BoM ENSO update than that also.

Re: A Neutral El Nino ??

Posted: Wed 15/10/2008 18:30
by Manukau heads obs
the western pacific, and the coral sea, are warmer than normal, at the moment
(might be a good summer for TC's ! :wave: :mrgreen: )

Re: A Neutral El Nino ??

Posted: Thu 16/10/2008 08:31
by RWood
Go to: enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf (application_pdf Object)

[Can't paste this and it may not be quite accurate, but you can get there by going to the NOAA pages].

Full description and analysis of current state and outlooks. It is updated weekly.

Re: A Neutral El Nino ??

Posted: Wed 03/12/2008 22:23
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Latest SOI from BOM show a very definate La Nina trend :?: 8) :-w

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml

JohnGaul
NZThS