Labour WE Trough & Cool Change

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Could be an interesting trough next WE for the long WE over the country.
Not good for people who want to do something for the weekend; like ourdoor barbeques, etc.,
It's the 100 years centenary of the locomotive drivers union, so I'll be engaging in lots of activities there.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Michael]

Its just a Waikato north event as usual according to ECMWF.

[spwill]

Not good for people who want to do something for the weekend; like ourdoor barbeques, etc.,

Storm chasing perhaps.

[jamie]

Looking forward to this one. I finish Uni lectures for the year on Thursday. So i only have exams after Thursday. Me and studying do not go well together (i never study) so its going to be like a holiday for me. Ill be down in Hamilton getting as much work as dad can give me on the farm, while i don't have exams so ill shall be there keen as this weekend.

I leave for Sydney on the 21st of November so im hoping i catch a good active spring day before i leave for the summer.

[Myself]

Looking forward to this one. I finish Uni lectures for the year on Thursday. So i only have exams after Thursday. Me and studying do not go well together (i never study) so its going to be like a holiday for me. Ill be down in Hamilton getting as much work as dad can give me on the farm, while i don't have exams so ill shall be there keen as this weekend.

I leave for Sydney on the 21st of November so im hoping i catch a good active spring day before i leave for the summer.

You're ditching NZ for a whole summer?

[jamie]

Sure am! Will be back late Feb i think. Going for the money and the experiance. Something different from relief milking and farming like i have done every other summer.
Hope i catch some sweet Tstrms over there.

[tgsnoopy]

I leave for Sydney on the 21st of November so im hoping i catch a good active spring day before i leave for the summer.

Hmm, something wrong with this picture. Forget NZ activity. Look forward to NSW activity. No comparisn.

[spwill]

Forget NZ activity. Look forward to NSW activity. No comparisn.

True, but they dont get a winter Storm season like we do here and not every Spring /Summer is good for storms. They are due for a good storm season this year.

[Nev]

Hmm... while we're off-topic, check out this slightly misconstrued story from the 'Brisbane Times'...

'Wild storm season predicted'
October 20, 2008 - 9:59AM by Marissa Calligeros

Queenslanders should prepare early for a fierce and destructive cyclone season, experts have warned. The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast one of the wildest summer storm seasons on record. "A coastal crossing by a destructive cyclone during the coming season should be seriously considered in preparations," the Bureau's regional director Jim Davidson said...

University of Southern Queensland climatology expert Roger Stone said Brisbane's summer storm season would be "intense". "There is a 70 per cent chance of well above average rainfall this summer," Mr Stone said.

Mr Davidson said strong cyclonic activity was typical under a La Nina event and characterised by warmer than normal water in the Coral Sea and Gulf of Carpentaria and colder conditions in the central Pacific and equatorial regions (the opposite of El Nino)...

[Tornado Tim]

Yea, storms seem to be popping up around now and through to February.
I will be doing accounts of these storms that pop up around the hamilton area.
Perhaps Foggy could also get some pic's from what he sees in the inner city and what i see outside the city.
I want some fork lightning!

[Vertigo]

the activity in that low is looking nice at this stage.

[ricky]

Yes, unusually warm waters (+5C) off the Coast there will be helping that convection too I'm sure..

[Vertigo]

one more, getting more intense out there...

[NZstorm]

Looking like a big spring trough to come thru at the weekend now! Thunderstorms in the north overnight Friday, thunderstorms/hail over inland South Island Saturday and possibly more thunderstorms/hail over North Island Sunday! Wait and see I guess.

[Storm Struck]

Yes its looking very messy for labour weekend now well Saturday and Sunday over the South Island.
Southerly change moves up the coast on Saturday afternoon/evening which could be good for Tstorms especially inland as NZstorm has suggested.
I will be up in Hanmer Springs so hopefully we will get some sunshine at some point between Saturday and Monday.
Usually its fairly sheltered up that way in a southerly flow.
Cheers
Jason.

[NZstorm]

This weekends thunderstorm chances will be about timing. We want the dynamics to pass through in the afternoons, the most unstable part of the day.

[Tornado Tim]

In hamilton at 10.30 I am already seeing congestus,the waikato folks like me may get some rain and or a thunderstorm.
I will update in the afternoon.

[Manukau heads obs]

not enough instability arond today to do anything (too much ridging)

[Tornado Tim]

Cambridge may get some rain as vertical developments are happening as we speak.
and http://www.metvuw.com/satellite/satellite.php?ihour=0? shows the front coming in quickly.

[Storm Struck]

So much for a fine day which was forecast last night by the MS, we have had light spotty rain since 10am this morning persistant around lunchtime.
Rather cool in town around 4:30pm with wet surfaces, but mild out here and a little muggy.
Came across brief bursts of heavy rain in Papanui too heavy enough i was waiting for some thunder .
Weaker forms of CU out there because of the hindering of mid level cloud not allowing them to push any higher, but with the arrival of showers and southerlies this evening i am wondering on the chances .
Cheers
Jason.

[Tornado Tim]

Jesestrm, You can never trust metservice they are useless, the most reliable source you will ever have will be going local.
Such as buying a weather station or going to weatherunderground.com they will have all of weather-stations that report to the internet in your area.

[Myself]

Jesestrm, You can never trust metservice they are useless, the most reliable source you will ever have will be going local.

Really? I find them pretty useful. What's your evidence?

[TonyT]

Lets stay on topic folks.

[tich]

Overcast all day in Chch. Radar showed band of rain just to the north - central city got a brief dousing midafternoon, but clearing this evening.
Saturday looks cold and wet, but hopefully it should clear up on Sunday.

[NZstorm]

Interestingly the GFS suggests Isolated thunderstorms over the west of Waikato tomorrow afternoon as dewpoints/temperature rise, but upper air will be getting warmer too. Not sure about that one but worth watching I guess.

Northern NZ including Auckland will get a short sharp downpour from the front of this low pressure system as it passes overnight Friday, maybe an early morning thunderstorm as well.