NZ Weather Forum

to make matters even more confusing, my girlfriend said she heard something when i didnt!

could see lots of fireworks going off over auckland last night...looked none tree hill area
but I think I did hear one rumble of thunder....but then there was a plane going over just after....so not sure, LOL

Oh man a nice day to be had then the bloody stratocumulus takes over the whole sky!,
I don't think that anything will happen this afternoon unless this cirrostratus which is giving hamilton overcast weather moves away to let the sun warm up the ground to get some evaporation going.

would be if you were in the Midwest, yes....
not sure if there is enough instability left over for anything inland to pop up this arvo...

We should see some sunshine today for a change, the last five days have been overcast and cool so a poor run of weather for Auckland . Fairly active westerlies over NZ in October, wetter with less sunshine here.

Yes, hopefully some nicer weather in November with a few thunderstorm chances as well.

The dewpoint rose from 9C yesterday to 15C at 2am this morning and back down to 7C now.

What were you all smoking last night wouldnt it have just been fire works?

Had some solid rain during the rugby last night in hamilton.

Doesn't look like there will be much of interest for northerners in this next trough. Its due overnight Tuesday with some rain, thunderstorms now look less likely. The interesting weather will be in the far south of the country where a wintry outbreak still looks on the cards Wednesday into Thursday with isolated thunder/hail from Invercargill to Dunedin but more interestingly snow to quite low levels. Something for southerners to watch out for.

I have been admiring the forecast conditions for Invercargill for midday Wednesday on the GFS. The UKmet backs up the numbers.

Surface wind WSW 33kts, surface temp 5C, 850mb temp -6C, 500mb temp -35C. Lifted index-0.8 which means some decent thunder/hail .

Yes indeed looks like perhaps a few storm chances ahead this week perhaps.
Later Tuesday night,Wednesday evening and maybe again Thursday afternoon, could be some severity to these in some places too.
Glorious day today blue dome skies and not even any inland afternoon CU development which i expected to see.
Cheers
Jason.

A superb day over the lower North Island Sunday .. Northerly has picked up as I type this 00:30hrs Monday... temp here at home in Upper Hutt 6c with a clear sky... Looks to be somewhat unsettled from Tuesday onwards in Wellington... Max gust at work NZKL ...WAS 80KTS EARLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. from the nw. highest for a long period of time...we have a MUNRO ANEMOGRAPH plus all the modern digital recording instruments but its the older equipment that does justice to the weather elements!!! Long live real weather recording instruments!!

Steve
Upper Hutt

I agree with Steve that the Munro anemometers were always a pleasure and a dog to use and obtain the wind readings when we did our synops . Nothing like getting tempermental ink pens to work without splattering ink on the rest of the chart . Suprised to see there is still one in action as was told that Invercargill's unit now decommissioned was the last

My goodness it's quiet on here where are all the South Island members we have quite a significant weather event ahead of us in the next few days .
The models i have been looking at tonight are really bringing those numbers down, if it was winter there would be quite abit of snow in some areas.
Even so it still looks like bringing some stormy weather for sure, i would think a reasonable chance tomorrow night abit later on though we shall see.
The low really deepens in the southern ocean by early hours on Wednesday just below 970hpa.
I dont know whether the NW winds here will reach gale force tomorrow further north from Kaikoura to lower North Island might yeh for sure, but i think the strongest winds here will be the W-SW winds early Wednesday.
Radio in 10/4 anyone out thier with ideas .
Cheers
Jason.

Thunderstorm at night in Hamilton, Just woke me up out of bed by the big bang! this is 1.35am.

No change on what the models have been indicating since mid last week. Snow to low levels in the deep South.

Nothing too exciting for the north. But GFS has thrown up thundery possibilities for Saturday on the latest run.

Tornado Tim wrote:Thunderstorm at night in Hamilton, Just woke me up out of bed by the big bang! this is 1.35am.

Could it be... perhaps, fireworks?
(Y'know, seeing there's been no cumuliform clouds overnight in the region or that Guy Fawkes happens to be tomorrow?)

Very well could be, as i only heard it once.
It just seems a bit strange that someone would let it off at 1.30am.
I noticed that there had been no CB clouds but you never know, the weather is full of surprises.

WOW this place sure is quiet considering what is around the corner... I notice MS have said the possibility of weak tornadoes for the upper north island tomorrow morning but play down the risk of thunder. What causes this? Because if my memory is right that is similar to what Cambridge had. A tornado from a convective cell but not a thunderstorm.

possibility of weak tornadoes for the upper north island tomorrow morning but play down the risk of thunder

Just a case of the cloud tops not being high enough to trigger lightning
A Cb line can be seen forming out in the Tasman to our west.

looks interesting for the south over the next couple of days, very cold temps and deeply unstable air should bring sleet to sealevel.

can see a line of CB's that is becoming more active as it approches the NI....could get interesting

Hmm, that is exactly what i thought Jamie.
Basically nearly all of NZ tornados are not related to thunderstorms, hence they are weak.
I would like to know if NZ has ever got a supercell?
I have seen a storm very similar to the US ones but not a supercell as it was too high based.
Just wanted to know out of curiosity if there has been one in NZ before, if so can i see the pictures?

Basically nearly all of NZ tornados are not related to thunderstorms, hence they are weak.

My guess is most would be associated with thunderstorms.
The Cb line that produced the Cambridge Tornado did produce a weak Storm over Northern Waikato

The engine room for NZ tornadoes seems to be good low level instability and very strong wind shear. Low amounts of CAPE are involved but very high values of shear are the driver. Whether the cb is high topped enough to produce lightning possibly isn't much of an issue. The Oakura F1 last year was accompanied by a thunderstorm whereas the F1 in Cambridge wasn't. The F2 at Greymouth back in March 05 didn't come with thunder.

I would like to know if NZ has ever got a supercell?

Yes, undoubtedly. A supercell doesn't mean tornado though. Most supercells in USA don't produce tornadoes.

I even observed a small mesocylone here, over the top of the peninuslar, last summer
(if I had a wide angle lens it would have showed up!)

Steven, Yes I agree seems to be that we get the stovepipe variation of tornados mainly because (as you said) of "windshear"
When i meant supercell I meant the meso-cyclone variation of it that the whole thundercloud spins which is mainly to do with updraft not windshear, correct?
I wouldn't think so as NZ is not hot enough but who knows, because looking back into history 1970's were the worst years of tornado alley (destruction wise), so that means back in history NZ might have been hit even more harder with tornados than that have been documented.
This here: http://www.metvuw.com/radar/radar.php?location=nz at 10.20pm is showing that taranaki is getting pounded with rain yet the north is getting allot of lightning strikes.
And not allot of rain around either, strange but they are 1 hour apart.