Wintry blast 4-7 November

[tich]

I though I'd start a new thread, as the title of the previous one touching on this upcoming event doesn't seem to do it justice. This looks like a significant cold blast for so late in the season (MetService going for snow to sea-level in the south tomorrow), especially considering eastern areas (like here in Canterbury) are currently having warm weather in the northwesterly flow.
Seems like the very cold air is just starting to affect the far south, with Stewart Island station down to 5C at 4pm.

[Manukau heads obs]

starting to pick up a few lightning strikes from the cold front approaching the upper NI

[Storm Struck]

This will be an interesting few days ahead with some good storm chances too i would think.
Convective showers may also bring sleet to sea level here just with the heavy precipitation etc.
Currently now down to 982hpa with a fresh gusty NWer which is gradually picking up, also a few weaker Cumulus clouds spilling over from the west.
Cheers
Jason.

[gllitz]

Who woulda guessed it...possible sleet/snow to 200m or lower in NOV!! How often does THAT happen? I am sure some people out there would know....Hmmm...don't know about it happening here in CHCH (certainly THK numbers are good)...850 temps too high, tho and not a whole lot of precip, either...they will be copping it pretty good down South, though...will be interesting to hear the reports from members of the forum down there! (and any new ones!)
We've got a Corporate Challenge thing happening tmrw evening in Hagley Park...wondering how that's gonna go with the cold air, etc in place...brrr...

The chance for thunder boomers looks iffy...CAPE is certainly there, but winds will be SW/W...I've been out in the garden this evening and it certainly has been a pretty stiff easterly...guess it's all that air being sucked toward the low! And now barometer showing 978 and falling slowly....wow....too bad it's not middle of winter!

[Manukau heads obs]

sure is a big pool of very cold air moving north now to the SSW of Invercargill, at the moment...

[Inny Binny]

SW Cape 2 degs hmm?

Very interesting for the south for sure.

[tich]

Who woulda guessed it...possible sleet/snow to 200m or lower in NOV!! How often does THAT happen?

Happened in Canterbury 2 years ago (undercutting event), but still pretty unusual for November. Last November snowfall in Chch I believe was way back in 1976. More likely in the far south, but I don't think it has snowed in Dunedin (central city, not hill suburbs) this late since 2000.

[NZstorm]

I can't say I can recall a winter outbreak like this one in November, going by what the models are suggesting.
Snow on the way for Dunedins hill suburbs! And the cold air hangs around for 2 to 3 days as well. Could be disastrous for horticulturalists.

[Ice Maiden]

Interesting to see what develops overnight, currently hovering around 10C, slight southerly

[TonyT]

I can't say I can recall a winter outbreak like this one in November, going by what the models are suggesting.

http://www.weatherforum.org.nz/phpBB3/v ... =12&t=2213

[Gary McConnochie]

Lowest barometer reading for the year here and still droping.

[Vertigo]

gary, that cant be right... according to the isobar map, even invercargill is only getting 1000. can someone verify that pressure reading?

edit; nevermind.. for some reason, my isobar map hasnt updated for a while.

[gllitz]

Jeff's station reports 975.7 and Burwood station reporting 977.9....so I'd say it's pretty accurate....

EDIT:...and yes, I do realize the pressure has dropped well over 28 hPa in the last 24 hours (based on Jeff's station) but it's not the center of a low that has dropped by that much....so not a "bomb," per se...
Will be an interesting next 12-18 hours of weather, for sure...

[tich]

Pressure should be starting to rise in the deep south, with the increasing southerly. Front hasn't arrived in Chch yet.

[Tornado Tim]

Front wise the most of the north island is going to get a warm shot and a cold shot coming in. Let's see what that will bring?

[Storm Struck]

Looks like it could well be snowing down south now as per the 10pm radar showing a definate echo.
Where is Flutterbye these days?.
Abit of lightning activity off the coast near Westport,Karamea in the last few hours.
Cheers
Jason.

[tich]

Trademe poster reports snow falling in Otautau, not far from Invercargill. (and probably not much above aea-level)

[mattyj46]

Just got a text from my sister from Te Anau, 200m abs, says its snowing quite heavily there.

[Philip Duncan]

2 degs with heavy precip in Invers now...similar on Stewart Island and same in Lumsden where it's only 1.

Relatively mild in Dunedin still...that'll change soon I suspect!

[tidd66]

Just out of Gore and we have sleet shouldn't be long and it will be snowing, will probably be the most we have had all winter and it's November.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

The barometer is so low now, this should really suck the cold air up.
Still relatively mild here in West Welton at 14.5C.
With this system, there must be a tornado somewhere?

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Chris Raine]

It is 2.2 degrees in Thornbury Southland now at 2345 down from 4.8 degrees at 2100 and we have heavy wet snow falling and settling , 15 mm in last three hours. Forecast according to Met Service accurate , stiff southerly until 2000 with gusts to 20-25 kts. now eased off barometer rising slowly.

[sthguy]

Snow to sea level in the deep south this morning.
Has occured before, 1978 I beleive, when several cm's of snow/hail blanketed the ground to sea level for a couple of days.

[gllitz]

MS site getting hammered at the moment...can't get into it to check radars, etc...oh well...to be expected, I guess with this system.

[mattyj46]

Wow just woke up to see the lawn covered in snow, took a few photos and will try to upload them.