Thunderstorms,Hail possible eastern SI 17-19th Nov!!

[gllitz]

Round two moving up the coast near Timaru on the tail end of the low? (leeward trough?) Or maybe it will get pushed out to sea...we'll see in the next hour or two...

EDIT: That would be a "no"...access, denied...do not pass Go, etc, etc...bummer...

[spwill]

A great hail clip from Ashburton

[Storm Struck]

Not much out this way just a breezy SW change which didnt last long, with a CU cloudline which went through at about 6:30pm.
Wind is now a 30kmh Easterly which is good if the showers keep pushing up from the south.
Great video of the hail , hail that big today could suggest there was a tornado somewhere perhaps not so localised to be noticed.
Cheers
Jason.

[Razor]

It was close today, for ChCh, but no cigar.

Story of Spring 2008 it seems

[Manukau heads obs]

wow, good news coverage on the breakfast news of the damage in ashburton...golf ball sized hail, has done alot of damage to horticulture, glass houses, cars in car yards, etc etc!!
the rain radar at the time showed the area getting that big hail was very small, but ashburton must have been right in the path!

[Nev]

TVNZ Story here...

'Ashburton bears icy brunt'
Nov 17, 2008 11:49 PM
..."This is the worst we've ever seen, we're buggered. We might salvage some raspberries but the pears are stuffed," says one orchardist...

[Lacertae]

Do you have any radar screenshot showing the hail over Ashburton ? I am curious to see how it looked like.
And also, do you have any idea if that storm had any specific structure (monocellular for example) ?

[Storm Struck]

I just updated this topic out to tomorrow as there is a reasonable chance tomorrow for thunderstorms.
Only thing will be slight lack in moisture although atleast we have an onshore NE beforehand instead of NW like yesterday's.
Also by the looks of this morning's CU congestus inland and a CB shower cloud to the SW there could be something thundery later on mainly inland and to the north.
Looking at some models ahead which suggest some beasty late spring NWer's ahead.
Cheers
Jason.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Don't know about tomorrow?
Despite the conditions, the barometer might be against us??

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Tornado Tim]

Just looked on the maps, and sat images and it does look promising for the SI to get some t-storms.
At the moment i wish i was down in SI were all the action is happening.

[Andrew Massie]

Looking good...

[Ryan Thomas]

Hopefully there will be some active during my breaks at work tonight, so I can head outside and see some action... Or they happen at 11 o clock when I'm biking home

[Lacertae]

Great ! May be I will experience my first storm chase in NZ after work !

[Storm Struck]

This evening should be interesting i see the front is just crossing north Otago at the moment, things should start to fire up in the next few hours.
Some CU developing overhead and scatterd CU looking SW, fresh onshore NE and 21C.
Looking at OB's for the area it looks like Christchurch northwards is the only area recieving an onshore NE at the moment which could mean things wont flare up until the change gets just south of Christchurch.
Here's a webcam from Belfast of what is currently close by.
http://www.andi.co.nz/
Cheers
Jason.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

It did variate between WSW and Ne here this afternoon but now it is toooo NW and cloud is building up to the south, in layered fashion which looks to Sc for me. Not much evidence of instability despite the ground heating.
Boro not all that low anyway.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Looking good...

I would consider a low risk, sadly as conditons don't look right.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Inny Binny]

Things are firing looking at the radar, maybe a bit too far out to the ocean for Chch...

[gllitz]

Dew points are too low...upper level winds look to push things out to sea, once again....sadly...was looking promising there for a while...CAPE is pretty low, too.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

As Jim Hickey would say "Definately a gone-burger"

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Storm Struck]

Might not be anything thundery but it sure looks very black to the SW from here.
Cheers
Jason.

[spwill]

..upper level winds look to push things out to sea, once again....

Fresh development over the land can take heavy showers on a NE track. eg Ashburton Storm on Monday propogated NE over the heated land.

[Storm Struck]

Change went through with a roar swinging W-SW first then more gale force SW.
Nice wee splash of rain mixed with defrosted hail which fell as a sleet form.
Pity this day came to nothing again although can't complain as storm season doesnt get started until next month anything outside that is a bonus.
Cheers
Jason.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, nothing much as I expected

...but who wants hail this time of year?
JohnGaul
NZTS

[NZstorm]

Is there any confirmation of the hail size in Ashburton this week?

[Michael]

Theres pictures of the hail stones on weatherwatch.co.nz in a guys hand