Thunderstorms later this week?

[spwill]

Yes, moisture has gone, how much will come back ?. Feels much cooler this morn with that dewpoint drop. Currently overcast 15C,dewpoint only 8C. Upside is there should be plenty of sunshine today with that low cloud burning away soon.

[Vertigo]

overcast and boring! no sign of rain on the radar. booo.

[Tornado Tim]

I dont think any t-storms will eventuate today as there is no heat being applied since the overcast clouds are blocking it
Unless the winds pick up and the clouds moves along, it does not look good!

[Manukau heads obs]

we did get a line of brief heavy showers here last evening (1.5mm)
you could see the instability just before it got dark, with the upper part of the towering clouds being blown off from the NW

looks like stable conditions today, with SSW winds here
but
inland waikato might still get some action late afternoon this cloud should burn off, as there is that trough just to the east of the NI....

[Tornado Tim]

Some definite instability yesterday afternoon. I took a drive around Hautapu area looking into the ranges, looked like when the air hit the ranges it went upwards and upwards!

[Manukau heads obs]

met service latest update confirms my thoughts
http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... ormoutlook

[NZstorm]

both ukmet and gfs have a bit of a moisture return this afternoon so we'll see what happens.

There was an isolated tstorm yesterday evening over the high country near Waiouru.

[Tornado Tim]

Tomorrow Looks good for the north also.
The cloud atm is breaking up so there is a chance for t-storms but looking the clouds it does not seems so.

[Manukau heads obs]

note that the instability is higher up at the moment....i.e once the heating gets the lifting up to above the current anticyclonic gloom stable layer, things will take off,I would say

[Manukau heads obs]

looking good for this area tomorrow:
http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... ormoutlook

[Tornado Tim]

Nothings happening here, Just Cumulus Humilis (fair weather cloud) and there not much of those too..
Only some development by the ranges that I wouldn't call t-storm potential either.
Hopefully Friday might be better....... or today could give me a surprise and give out a t-storm.

[spwill]

Only some development by the ranges that I wouldn't call t-storm potential either.

Thats the convergence line, well to the east. Still the slight chance of a Cb out there.
fine 20c here, fresh SW.

[TokWW]

Some good afternoon cloud activity in Sth Waikato with plenty of lightning strikes - 95 in 10 mins on my mates website with 1-Wire lightning counter. Lovely flat top Cb over Rotorua and us at moment and it has just started raining and the sun is pouring in!! Max temp of 23.8ºC, dropped to 20.9ºC and DP of 14.8ºC, Wind has dropped from 15km/hr to 5km/hr ave. still WSW. Will share a photo later...

[Tornado Tim]

Yea just looked at the lightning detectors and there is definite activity over more east from where I am.
I can see this huge CB cloud in the distance to my SW.
Damb westerlys they never produce anything my way.

[Manukau heads obs]

yes, I can see the build ups in the SE waikato from here
the NP rain radar shows them up nicely....in a line running NW/SE over Tokoroa to north of Taupo way...

[TokWW]

P1010093Sml.jpg

203 counts in 30 mins, he hardly ever gets false positives. Goes for days with zero counts. The 30 min counter on his website always says zero so we will go through his setup to kick that into action. I was keeping count of his previous tally and refreshing to check a new value. The CB spread to the west over us to give us dark skies. Visible for a short while in my animated gifs...

http://www.inmanavenue.com/webcam.html

A good little blast just now - missed the flash while typing...

3.6mm in last 30 mins

Graeme

<EDIT> While this happened, the wind did shift to NE to spread the BOP cloud back over into Sth Waikato

realised my last hr video stopped production at 18:00 - missed the event. now to 20:00</EDIT>

[Manukau heads obs]

good one
yes, my Boltec is picking up strikes...and plotting them accuratley too

[NZstorm]

That SE change/covergence is coming in just a bit late. Can see the cb's popping up in the distance from here, pity its so late in the day now.

[spwill]

Much of the Lightning has been between Tokoroa and Taupo, would have been a good show down there.

[NZstorm]

Lightning activity looked good on tracker from Tokoroa thru to Te Kuiti.

Distant Cb's still look punchy from here but activity weakening now as you would expect with the cooling evening.

[NZstorm]

can actually see lightning from here now that its getting dark.

[Tornado Tim]

Tomorrow looks good as well With LI at -2 to -4 that is the prediction atm.
Hopefully hamilton gets some storms.

[spwill]

Moisture is on the rise with the arrival of the E/SE flow overnight and a lot of cloud cover. The more sheltered Western Waikato might be the best place for thunder later today and upper Northland catching showers in the unstable Easterly.
Overcaste 18C, dewpoint 15C, mod Easterly.

[Manukau heads obs]

there must be a lot of instability there
because with little heating, there is alot of cloud build ups around...troughy sort of stuff
we might get heavy showers here ......and my neighbour has hay down.....I told him we would not get the showers here, thinking the SW sea breeze would kick in early.....not enough heating for that either at the moment!

[Nev]

Had a few light showers here earlier this morn - 1mm.