Christmas day weather!

[03Stormchaser]

Any one game enough to make any calls 2 weeks out??
Currently NW looks on the cards for Canterbury, this far out its as hit or miss. Just as long as its sunny im happy!!

[spwill]

Looking at the long range models there seems to be a trend for Tasman Sea Lows over the next couple of weeks so perhaps a higher chance of a Xmas washout this year.

[tgsnoopy]

Hmm, since we are peering into crystal balls and considering waving wands...

Can I order calm flights accross the tasman on the big day and the 6th of Jan please. Thunderstorms every evening except New Years between Boxing Day & the 5th Jan would be good too

If only.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

"I'm dreaming of a White Christmas"

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Lacertae]

Could someone tell Santa I would like a nice tornado or a waterspout for Christmas ? Or a super cell ? I've lost his email address ...

[Vertigo]

im going to call.... a stunner day, with not a cloud in the sky. let it be so!

[spwill]

ECMWF has a Tasman Low approaching NZ on Xmas Eve meaning rain for some on Xmas day. Its a long way out but it fits in with the current December pattern.

[Janos]

Oh good no surprises then just a continuation of the murk....

[NZstorm]

Updated GFS model for Xmas eve here.

GFS and ECMRF have dropped the idea of a low moving onto northern NZ.

[Michael]

Looks as it will be a SE for us,plenty of sunshine for the flies to land on your Christmas turkey.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Looks as it will be a SE for us,plenty of sunshine for the flies to land on your Christmas turkey.

Yes, it looks like it with a ridge hanging back over the country with fine but not all that really warm weather over the country.
Who want's severe weather over Christmas when there are other things we must concentrate on over the festive period

JohnGaul
NZThS

[tgsnoopy]

Xmas eve 1972 had a really severe thunderstorm here in Tauranga, I wouldn't mind a repeat of that

As long as my flight to Sydney out of Auckland on Xmas day isn't affected it'll be all good.

[spwill]

not all that really warm weather over the country.

Stays warm this end of NZ regardless .
The weather is looking much better now with the Low moving away to the east by Xmas day.

[Tornado Tim]

Yes looks like Xmas eve might have thunderstorms for the Middle NI as a southerly might be present and temperatures @500 is -30 C, that means there is Cape as far as i can see so far it may be around 1200 j/Kg.

[Manukau heads obs]

i see the low from the north is back on the cards in the latest GFS

[NZstorm]

GFS has been all over the place last few days. Looks like the low of tropical origin will pass just to the east of us now but could well give a period of heavy rain to Gisborne/eastern BOP as it passes Xmas eve. Xmas day looks brighter with a ridge over the North Island. Rain on SI West Coast.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I keep saying the Christmas Day will be an ordinary day here in Christchurch or Canterbury

JohnGaul
NZThS

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Looks like xmas day could bring a thunderstorm to Canterbury as low from the southern tasmen sea and the subtropical low from the north meet out in the pacific. This causing unstable conditions as a strong quick southerly change (possibly gale) sweeps up the south islands east coast.

[Philip Duncan]

Looking like a cold one for Invercargill and Dunedin....temperature could be around 12 for much of the day!! (Just like London!)

[spwill]

Invercargill and Dunedin....temperature could be around 12 for much of the day!! (Just like London!)

Wanaka's population at Xmas swells for good reason.

[NZstorm]

Surface temp chart for NZ 4pm Xmas day. Don't know how realistic these figures are. They look a bit too low on the gfs but give the general idea.

[Tornado Tim]

@NZ Storm: How did you get the picture zoomed up?
I can only find the southern Pacific map, is there something I am missing?

[mikestormchaser]

Probably going to be a boring weather day for xmas day tomorrow is it guys?
I'd love the day to bring a thunderstorm or two as im free to chase in the afternoon, with a pretty laid back sort of day.
Merry christmas to everyone on the forum aswel!! hope you have a good one!

[Vertigo]

its looking fairly wet for most people, but auckland and up might get some sun

[carrot]

This thread is lacking pictures of santa.









Merry xmas. Enjoy the boring weather