Low 15-17th December

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NZstorm
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Low 15-17th December

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks like a reasonable system will pass through early to mid week. Upper air will not be unduly cold but very moist low level air means some decent rainfall could be on the way for many areas with the chance of thunderstorms. GFS is plotting instability with the front crossing the North Island Tuesday and also over the east of the South Island Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Too early to go into details but we'll see how this system eventuates.
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

This front is dumping a condsiderable amount of rain over Australia atm.
Severe thunderstorm warnings were issued for Brisbane yesterday, and some other areas also.
Cricket ball sized hail was reported also, so NZ is going to get something i am allready experiencing now (being in Sydney).
I have to live through this front twice how lovely? Rain it gets kind of depressing when you have for 1 week non stop of it.
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by carrot »

Cricket ball sized? :eek:
Sounds exciting over there :B
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Looks like some decent falls of rain into Monday evening and much needed if all goes to plan.
Certainly some reasonable instability about for Tuesday,Wednesday as well for much of the South Island, so this could be an interesting week ahead indeed.
Thunderstorm about the Marlborough Ranges at the moment, and also some weak instability about here in Canterbury with black looking skies more inland.
There was also some heavy showers about inland south canterbury last night with some lighter showers overnight here and lighter drizzle this morning.
Cheers
Jason.
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Yes been a tad unstable this evening and still does look that way, nothing predicted but at this time of year who knows what can happen! we are in storm season now so yeah.
:D have to keep watch next week by the sounds of it ;)
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Upper level cloud thickened this afternoon from this incoming low system, also abit cooler than of recent weeks too.
Looks like the change comes through abit too early on Wednesday for Thunderstorms now which is a bugger, although Tuesday looks interesting.
Maybe a few heavy showers about tomorrow afternoon with some heating kicking in too.
The system actually looks quite busy on the isobaric maps this evening in the Tasman, hopefully it brings us all a surprise.
Cheers
Jason.
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Razor »

Pennies from heaven falling from Canterbury skies this monring. First decent rain we've seen in weeks and weeks.
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Yes heavy rain here as of the last half an hour everything is soaked with a good 4mm so far.
Rather mild out too, if we get some heating later on there might be a clap of thunder in some heavy showers.
Cheers
Jason.
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Yes, Heavy rain on the rain radar for the area, if it comes together it potentially could bring a lot of rain for this area and hopefully it becomes slow moving and stuck over us. Rainfall here so far is 2mm.

Metservice says:

"Canterbury to Southland
Scattered rain, becoming more persistent in southern Canterbury tomorrow morning. Rain spreading north to Christchurch Tuesday evening, with isolated thundery falls. "
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
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2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Nothing else heavy since before just lighter rain with some sporadic drops at times.
Blue sky is appearing to the west now, so some welcome heating and it could be an interesting afternnon.
I can already see some unstable forms of CU from here more N-NW, wind is NE with 87% humidity and 15C.
Cheers
Jason.
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Sun is out now and its very mild indeed! Could get up to that 23 with fine spells.
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by TonyT »

Barely enough to wet the ground here :(

Edit - 0.4mm
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Skies have turned unstable towards the west in the last hour or so with some nice looking CU building up rather quickly.
Sun has been out in full force all afternoon here, looks like that will change soon with some heavy showers perhaps.
Cheers
Jason.
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Razor »

I think you are a bit optimisitc re the heavy showers Jasestrm....lovely evening here with scattered harmless cloud and a steady northerly.

Maybe tomorrow.....
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Evening isn't over yet [-X , we had skies turn rather black here before with some unstable threatning looking skies.
Lots of CU building more or so to the NE now but still some to the west, keen NE wind fresh and gusty at times.
Cooling temperatures this evening should hopefully see some showers return.
Cheers
Jason.
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Tomorrow is the day i am picking for the week so far for storms, in the afternoon.
Nothing suggesting to me of thunder today, but some nice rain we had this morning, not to heavy but moderate and steady, it hanged around for awhile to. :)
Interesting to note some scattered cloud coming from NW up high though this afternoon, as it was NE below.
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Vertigo »

thunderstorms incoming on the west coast
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Storm Struck »

There was a few showers about this evening possibly around the Prebbleton Hornby area.
Also quite abit of lightning on the alps and west coast at the moment, if you go outside and look west its a lovely sight to see.
Just some piccys from todays CU forms which did look promising for awhile.
Cheers
Jason.
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by NZstorm »

Western areas from Taranaki to Wellington may well catch a Thunderstorm overnight with the front.
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Lacertae »

Hey guys, did you see that orographic-like cloud, NW-SE going eastward (against the wind, of course ...) over the dunes ? It did last for a while and I would be curious to know what it was (apart from a Sc I mean ...) ! Almost looked like a morning glory but much much slower ... :?:

Around 7:45pm, from North New Brighton
http://alphalacertae.net/IC/15-12-08-01.jpg

Around 7:55pm, from South Brighton
http://alphalacertae.net/IC/15-12-08-02.jpg

Around 8:00pm, from South Brighton
http://alphalacertae.net/IC/15-12-08-03.jpg
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

No I didn't.

Been looking to the west haven't seen much that exciting.

Looks like we are buggered for thunderstorms this summer. Too La Nina -ish :o

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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by NZstorm »

Interesting stuff Lacertae. Winds off the surface were forecast to back NE into N early evening, that must have something to do with it.
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I have just fallen asleep watching the lightning flashes to the west o_O
...but i woke up again to post this :smile: message
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Area51 »

Hokitika AWS has been recording thunderstorm activity since 2100 tonight.
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Nev »

Very disappointing 2.5mm here last night, although that looks like more than most managed around Ak - anyone top that? Also a very warm muggy 19°C overnight.

Next system looks to potentially give most of South Island a good dump on Sat/Sun night and may provide Ak with a few more mm from Sunday to Monday - still a little ways out though...
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