Low 15-17th December

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gllitz
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by gllitz »

midday CAPE levels are somewhat high at 200-230 or so...LI are 0 to -1...and dew points are hovering 11-13C...giving 60-70% humidity in some places...hmmmm...we'll see...
"Saru mo ki kara ochiru"
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Storm Struck
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Nice lot of heavy showers moving up the coast, both trackers have plotted some strikes down that way too somewhere.
Wind is still E-NE but i have noticed the clouds are moving in from the SW now not the NW.
Cheers
Jason.
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melja
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by melja »

Still a good old nw here and 27 deg and only 35% humidity so far to dry up this way for T/S.
Haha yeah i have a 70% confidence to \:D/ of no thunder =D>
mikestormchaser
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Hmmm i was thinking moderate risk this afternoon/ evening but id down grade that to low risk now.
NW up high as clearly seen and NE down below.
To me it appears very dry out there with not much sign either again that suggests thunder although it is a lil unstable further south at the moment
Mike
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

SW here at West Melton from 5:50pm.

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Vertigo
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Vertigo »

interesting looking radar at 6:00... looks to be a small but sharp blow up near hamilton.
melja
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by melja »

Dew point now up to 15 since the change came in about an hour ago and still 22deg.
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

A bit of rain here but nothing really interesting. Tomorrow Could? be better??? :-k

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Tornado Tim
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

That blow up is a rain producer unfortunately nothing else! Man im glad i just did the lawn at 5.00pm. ;)
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CHCH Weather Chaser
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Well a very impressive 8pm and 9pm radar in terms of intensity of rain, however it seems it is going out to sea and going to completely miss us, may not get a thing. I drove to Rakaia earlier on and caught a flash and some heavy rain but it doesnt seem it is going to make it this far
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Leighton Thomas

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tgsnoopy
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

As usual the Auckland radar has stopped working. Sigh :(
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NZstorm
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by NZstorm »

Tomorrow Could? be better???
Still seems to be a low risk for isolated ts inland north Otago/Canterbury this afternoon.
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David
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by David »

Certainly a strong sou'wester today. Weather station just recorded a gust of 62km/h.
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Razor
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Razor »

Forget storms for ChCh today folks, maybe a shower later but I'm pickign a mostly dry day and a continuation of the onset of drought
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Im with you on this one Razor. 7.2mm recorded here overnight and looking at radar and models doesnt seem like anything going to redevelop this afternoon. Tomorrow meant to be a warm one reaching 26 degrees but could peak towards 30 given if the wind tends to the NW for a time. I wouldnt be surprised. A few fine spells developing now. If we get between 26-30 degrees tomorrow then the 7.2mm will count for nothing once again, and once again be back to square one!! However, the weekend looks quite interesting as a fast moving system crosses central New Zealand and will pack a brief punch by the looks of it with some heavy falls but due to the speed of it wont come to anything substancial. However, im not sure how 23 is going to be achieved today with a SW flow as it is. Maybe 20 if we are lucky later on.
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Leighton Thomas

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CHCH Weather Chaser
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Still a good 3 days away but something to watch.... 8-o
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Leighton Thomas

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TonyT
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by TonyT »

MarkThomas wrote: 7.2mm recorded here overnight and looking at radar and models doesnt seem like anything going to redevelop this afternoon.
1.6mm here, very welcome, but I'd rather have the 7.2!
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

A few heavy showers to the north and west of the city working its way down, looks black to the north now too...

This friday , sat system is looking more and more interesting!
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Leighton Thomas

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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

MarkThomas wrote:A few heavy showers to the north and west of the city working its way down, looks black to the north now too...
A weak Ne convergence moved across here at 4:20pm with a drop in temperature.

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CHCH Weather Chaser
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Went for a drive to Amberley to see if could catch any heavy showers, got some moderate to heavy rain from Kaiapoi to Amberley. Nothing here though, blue sky just to the SE. Doesnt look like will get anything as the rain band that formed was north of city and moving further north. Tony you might have got the 7.2mm since we are getting nothing this afternoon and you are getting some decent intesnity rain.
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Leighton Thomas

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carrot
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by carrot »

I reckon we will get a little bit tonight.
Few drops falling now
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CHCH Weather Chaser
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Yes, may get a brief period of rain or showers actually now having a look at the 6pm radar there is some new formation on the radar and it is starting to come together.
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Leighton Thomas

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Storm Struck
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Storm Struck »

You should have headed inland Mark, i was doing some xmas shopping in Christchurch and hit the rain halfway down the northern motorway heading north.
Decided to coninue on as it looked heavy inland, so i went for a tiki tour up to North Loburn where there was very heavy rain and surface water around.
Steady to light rain here back in Kaiapoi with around 5mm so far, barly had 1mm here last night.
Interesting to see MS upgrading to a moderate risk, it was NE before no wind now and the cold front is still on its way up we shall see what happens.
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
mikestormchaser
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

NO thunderstorms today or tonight guys :) maybe few light showers as some are saying, just had a brief light shower just now, but nothing exciting.
More north of chch
Mike
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Inny Binny
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Re: Low 15-17th December

Unread post by Inny Binny »

Hmm been raining moderately for an hour now, it looks like that rain band is slowing right down now.