NZ Weather Forum

midday CAPE levels are somewhat high at 200-230 or so...LI are 0 to -1...and dew points are hovering 11-13C...giving 60-70% humidity in some places...hmmmm...we'll see...

Nice lot of heavy showers moving up the coast, both trackers have plotted some strikes down that way too somewhere.
Wind is still E-NE but i have noticed the clouds are moving in from the SW now not the NW.
Cheers
Jason.

Still a good old nw here and 27 deg and only 35% humidity so far to dry up this way for T/S.
Haha yeah i have a 70% confidence to of no thunder

Hmmm i was thinking moderate risk this afternoon/ evening but id down grade that to low risk now.
NW up high as clearly seen and NE down below.
To me it appears very dry out there with not much sign either again that suggests thunder although it is a lil unstable further south at the moment

SW here at West Melton from 5:50pm.

JohnGaul
NZThS

interesting looking radar at 6:00... looks to be a small but sharp blow up near hamilton.

Dew point now up to 15 since the change came in about an hour ago and still 22deg.

A bit of rain here but nothing really interesting. Tomorrow Could? be better???

JohnGaul
NZThS

That blow up is a rain producer unfortunately nothing else! Man im glad i just did the lawn at 5.00pm.

Well a very impressive 8pm and 9pm radar in terms of intensity of rain, however it seems it is going out to sea and going to completely miss us, may not get a thing. I drove to Rakaia earlier on and caught a flash and some heavy rain but it doesnt seem it is going to make it this far

As usual the Auckland radar has stopped working. Sigh

Tomorrow Could? be better???

Still seems to be a low risk for isolated ts inland north Otago/Canterbury this afternoon.

Certainly a strong sou'wester today. Weather station just recorded a gust of 62km/h.

Forget storms for ChCh today folks, maybe a shower later but I'm pickign a mostly dry day and a continuation of the onset of drought

Im with you on this one Razor. 7.2mm recorded here overnight and looking at radar and models doesnt seem like anything going to redevelop this afternoon. Tomorrow meant to be a warm one reaching 26 degrees but could peak towards 30 given if the wind tends to the NW for a time. I wouldnt be surprised. A few fine spells developing now. If we get between 26-30 degrees tomorrow then the 7.2mm will count for nothing once again, and once again be back to square one!! However, the weekend looks quite interesting as a fast moving system crosses central New Zealand and will pack a brief punch by the looks of it with some heavy falls but due to the speed of it wont come to anything substancial. However, im not sure how 23 is going to be achieved today with a SW flow as it is. Maybe 20 if we are lucky later on.

Still a good 3 days away but something to watch....

MarkThomas wrote: 7.2mm recorded here overnight and looking at radar and models doesnt seem like anything going to redevelop this afternoon.

1.6mm here, very welcome, but I'd rather have the 7.2!

A few heavy showers to the north and west of the city working its way down, looks black to the north now too...

This friday , sat system is looking more and more interesting!

MarkThomas wrote:A few heavy showers to the north and west of the city working its way down, looks black to the north now too...

A weak Ne convergence moved across here at 4:20pm with a drop in temperature.

JohnGaul
NZThS

Went for a drive to Amberley to see if could catch any heavy showers, got some moderate to heavy rain from Kaiapoi to Amberley. Nothing here though, blue sky just to the SE. Doesnt look like will get anything as the rain band that formed was north of city and moving further north. Tony you might have got the 7.2mm since we are getting nothing this afternoon and you are getting some decent intesnity rain.

I reckon we will get a little bit tonight.
Few drops falling now

Yes, may get a brief period of rain or showers actually now having a look at the 6pm radar there is some new formation on the radar and it is starting to come together.

You should have headed inland Mark, i was doing some xmas shopping in Christchurch and hit the rain halfway down the northern motorway heading north.
Decided to coninue on as it looked heavy inland, so i went for a tiki tour up to North Loburn where there was very heavy rain and surface water around.
Steady to light rain here back in Kaiapoi with around 5mm so far, barly had 1mm here last night.
Interesting to see MS upgrading to a moderate risk, it was NE before no wind now and the cold front is still on its way up we shall see what happens.
Cheers
Jason.

NO thunderstorms today or tonight guys maybe few light showers as some are saying, just had a brief light shower just now, but nothing exciting.
More north of chch

Hmm been raining moderately for an hour now, it looks like that rain band is slowing right down now.