Unstable air to start the year?/Canterbury Thunderstorm

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spwill
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by spwill »

Tomorrow metservice now Forecasting a good chance of hail and of golf ball size!!
Hopefully the ODI series can finally get under way and not another wash out. The weather looks good for the Wellington game on Wendsday and good at this stage for the Auckland game next Saturday.

Brighter here now and 24C
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by NZstorm »

I see the temp at Kerikeri is 31C.

Todays sounding from Whenuapai shows a stable layer between 600-700mbs!
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

spwill wrote:
Tomorrow metservice now Forecasting a good chance of hail and of golf ball size!!
Hopefully the ODI series can finally get under way and not another wash out. The weather looks good for the Wellington game on Wendsday and good at this stage for the Auckland game next Saturday.

Brighter here now and 24C
Its still very nice 26 degrees here at the moment and with temps between 28 and 32 for the last 5 days the pitch is sure to be a batting paradise. Plenty of blue sky and some thin high cloud in some areas. Models suggest conditions clearing very early tomorrow morning and we should be fine for a start on time. Could be interesting tomorrow evening if the thunderstorms do evenuate but they dont usually happen here in CHCH and im confident the game will be completed. Will be a lot colder with only around 18 -20 degrees.
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by Nev »

Getting back to yesterday's 'high temps' around Akld, I thought it might be interesting to compare some 'official' T-maxs for New Years Day. Only the North Shore (near Glenfield) and Penrose (central isthmus) came close to or above 28°C. Auckland Aero was the lowest and similarly some of those in the south didn't quite make it to 25°C

T-maxs (°C) on Jan 01, 2009
26.6 - Warkworth
25.3 - Whangaparaoa
26.0 - Kumeu
27.6 - North Shore
26.2 - Whenuapai
25.6 - Henderson
27.3 - Khyber Pass
28.3 - Penrose
27.2 - Musick Pt
26.7 - Pakuranga
25.1 - Onehunga
24.9 - Mangere
25.0 - Wiri
24.2 - Auckland Aero
24.9 - Pukekohe

EDIT: Sorry folks - stuffed-up a little on my original posting. :-(
Have amended the figures and comments above.
Last edited by Nev on Sat 03/01/2009 12:36, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by gllitz »

For the CHCH area tomorrow, CAPE looking to be around 300-350 with a very low (0 to -2) lifted index...nice...the prediction of potentially having golf-ball sized hail is a bit of a worry...meep...winds are not looking all that favourable, though, and rel. humidity and dew points are a wee bit low...hmmm...still, best chance we've had in a while! Will charge the batteries for the camera, nonetheless...

EDIT: Just FYI...burwood weather station reporting 30+ temps now...sure feels it, too...
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Yes i went out 20 mins ago and it was 26 degrees and now it is 30.2 degrees! wow! and thats with sun still behind thin high cloud.
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by David »

Not sure why, but my thermo has recorded a peak of 27.8oC recently, and since that was higher than other stations I was wondering if it were my thermometer, but when I put another one I have outside (around the other side of the house - sensor shaded) it agreed with the other thermometer... :crazy:

Is it reasonable that it should be hotter here?? My thermometer is in a home-made radiation shield sitting in a shady spot in our otherwise sunny backyard at the moment. It has a decent breeze blowing past it too.
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by spwill »

Getting back to yesterday's supposedly 'high temps' around Akld, I thought it might be interesting to compare some 'official' T-maxs for New Years Day. Only the North Shore (near Glenfield) and Penrose (central isthmus) came close to or above 27°C. Henderson (Lincoln)
locations away from the water had the hot day due to the lack of wind (sea breeze)as shown with Glenfield and Penrose above. Lincoln is close to the water, Henderson was likely late 20s I'm guessing.
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

We don't want golf-sized hail stones here. [-X
Maybe some cricket-ball sized hail would be appreciated over Lancaster Park [-(
I think the chances look very good for thunderstorms tomorrow. \:D/
Indicators do look favourable, CAPE values etc. :D


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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by Vertigo »

west coast looks like its getting hammered.. and the christchurch/malborough area looks like its next too, suprised were not hearing reports! come on people, let us know whats happening!
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by carrot »

Warm, overcast and the windiest its been in a long time here in Chch.
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by Vertigo »

and yes, that whenuapai sounding is great looking! but its now 5pm, not much heating left in the day, and nothings happening yet.. hope some explosively convective storms fire off soon, or itll just be another muggy and uncomfortable night :(

edit: it hasnt been reported here yet, but theres been a severe thunderstorm warning for the alps and west coast since 1:40pm. you lucky sods.
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by Jac »

Hi all, I'm new to these forums and dont know about weather as much as you all seem to do haha, but I do have a great interest in it.

Was a very warm day in Gisborne today with temperatures in Wainui (beach suburb 10 minutes from city centre) reaching a maximum of 32.8, and the humidex reaching a max of 37.6. West of Gisborne, a maximum temp of 29.9 was recorded, and the humidex reaching a max of 34.9. Definitely the hottest day so far this summer!
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by carrot »

Welcome to the forum.

Sure looks like it was warm and humid across much of the north island.
The humindex was apparently around 40 of Wanganui according to the weatherwatch centre.

Btw i also know pretty much nothing about weather (But i have been learning after having been reading around the forum)
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Very bluster out there now and few spots of rain out there now. 26 degrees still however.

Infact steady rain falling now.
Last edited by CHCH Weather Chaser on Fri 02/01/2009 18:29, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Raining now here in West Melton with the temperature dropping away to 19C now.
The wind did ease for a while but now it's back to gusty NW
Thundery looking towards the Alps, with some distant sferics being picked up.

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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by Vertigo »

temperature also dropping in auckland.. feels like a new airmass has moved in. its not looking good for afternoon storms, after all.
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

sure was high DP here today, reached 22C DP at one stage!
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by Myself »

Vertigo wrote:temperature also dropping in auckland.. feels like a new airmass has moved in. its not looking good for afternoon storms, after all.
If there is a new air mass, it's pretty insignificant compared with the main change, which is still a long way from Auckland.
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by Vertigo »

yes i know, but that front is still 12 or so hour away by my reckoning. it is significantly less muggy here now, possibly a weak cold front following the small warm front earlier this morning.
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Sun out now and warming up a bit, trying hard to get to 20C.
NW still very strong and gusty
Lots of wispy related thundery cloud along the Alps.
Can't wait until it gets dark so I see a flash or 2 :popcorn:

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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

I was just about to say its cleared very nicely here as well! Infact clearist all day now. The sun is out fully now and the temperature rising back to 22 degrees. If the sun got out of the thin high cloud when it was 31 degrees earlier who knows what we would have got to! Northwester 40km/h at the moment. Maximum gust today of 54km/h.
Currently 28 degrees in the city centre however!
Last edited by CHCH Weather Chaser on Fri 02/01/2009 19:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by spwill »

feels like a new airmass has moved in
Our dewpoints are still around 19- 20C so an uncomfortable night ahead for us.

Cold air mioving up the SI, Dunedin 10C, Oamaru 12C at 6pm
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by Myself »

Vertigo wrote:yes i know, but that front is still 12 or so hour away by my reckoning. it is significantly less muggy here now, possibly a weak cold front following the small warm front earlier this morning.
Yeah I'd say that's possible. Looking at the older MS analysis charts, there was a warm sector over northern NZ this morning, it's entirely possible that the cold front associated with that has now passed over Auckland. The fact that it was no longer drawn on the analysis charts after this morning does suggest though that it was very weak, and probably weakening. May have indicated a theta W drop of about 2 degrees or so.
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Re: Unstable air to start the year?

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

ooh yeh does sound abit thundery by what people are saying on here, i originally thought was just going to be a shower or so in the morning and clearing by about midday! :D
I don't think id mind at all if theres good thunderstorm tomorrow, even though i am actually going to the game :P

Happy new year to everyone on the forum aswel, hopefully will get a good year with storms and snow if you live in the south :)
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