Unstable air to start the year?/Canterbury Thunderstorm

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Fri 02/01/2009 21:36

Few clouds this evening coming in over the city from the NW look quite thundery, nothing as yet.
Could be something later perhaps? maybe even a sporadic

Wind has died completely, not a breeze to think of!! turned out to be another very nice evening so far $\:D/$

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 02/01/2009 21:57

This front/change is huge! It goes from (on the satellite) Christchurch all the way just north west of Alice Springs. It also looks like a nice and sharp change too. Satellite images look very nice.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... mscol.html just one for nice viewing

Manukau heads obs · Fri 02/01/2009 22:04

the sharp look is from the jet stream cloud (the back edge of it)
but there is embedded CB's on the front (to the east of the back edge high cloud jet stream line)

Our dewpoints are still around 19- 20C so an uncomfortable night ahead for us.

awfull for sleeping here now ....basicly 100% humidity, with 20C air temperature here now

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 02/01/2009 22:07

Sporadic flashes visible to the northwest, look closer than the main divide, I would expect on the more eastern foothills.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Fri 02/01/2009 22:18

TonyT wrote:Sporadic flashes visible to the northwest, look closer than the main divide, I would expect on the more eastern foothills.

I am wondering whether we might see an effect tonight, we saw last year in winter..
Thunderstorms had spilled over from the alps weakened as they moved eastwards, but when the Southerly came up, it fired the old CB up again and pushed it into the city.
Was goodie that storm aswel.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 02/01/2009 22:28

Lots of lightning seen flashing away to the NW from here from 10pm onwards with some bright horizontal streaks of lightning. Distant thunder giving some nice elongated 'dump' sounds

Probably will die away now as it has turned to the SW, sadly

JohnGaul
NZThS

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Fri 02/01/2009 23:30

looking great in the tasman tonight, heading aucklands way. tomorrow should be cracka.

lightning.jpg

looks like cantabrians will get lucky too!

warning.gif

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 03/01/2009 00:00

Raining again tonight after 10pm from the SW. Much cooler now.
The thunderstorms tomorrow could be interesting ...or not very interesting at all

JohnGaul
NZThS

carrot · Unread post by **carrot** » Sat 03/01/2009 00:04

Looks decent for east coast of the south island and upper regions of the north island.
Metservice now saying thunder/hail for chch not just showers too

Fingers crossed guys

Philip Duncan · Unread post by **Philip Duncan** » Sat 03/01/2009 00:07

As Im sure many of you know we use data supplied by the weather channel in Atlanta. They're usually bang on as far as POP is concerned... Saturday they give an 80% chance for New Plymouth, 50% for Hamilton and 30% for Auckland. Perhaps the air pressure will be too high for thunderstorms in Auckland? I think their POP for Auckland is wrong, but it does indicate that perhaps it's not favourable for big cloud build ups?

Mind you, it's midnight (too hot too sleep!) and very humid...and with that cooler wind behind it's certainly a possibility. But like JohnGaul I can't help but think we may miss out! Sigh!

I am bias though... I love a good thunderstorm and over 2008 Auckland missed out!

p.s. Happy New Year all.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 03/01/2009 05:53

I am picking up lots of strikes out to my WNW

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 03/01/2009 07:32

Yes, still some thundery activity on that front out there. Tasman Sea fronts in summer are always unreliable for northern regions so we'll see what comes of it. The dews still look okay at 18-19C this morning.

The colder air in the South Island is giving some chilly temps in the south. Dunedin Airport 4C. The upper trough down there looked good on the 12Z Invercargill sounding.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 03/01/2009 08:14

Might get some surface heating in before the Front arrives, thin high cloud at the moment, 22C.
At warm night for much of the NorthIsland with temp mins down to about 20C.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Sat 03/01/2009 08:26

Wow look at the SI CAPE Levels....300 j/kg they must get some TS's.

Update: New Plymouth has a severe thunderstorm Watch. Now if all of those storms would happen more north I would be happy.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 03/01/2009 08:28

Will be good to finally have a cooler night tonight. The NW wind has been particularly bad here sending the daytime temperatures into the high twenties for the last two days. Low of 20.0C overnight and already a warm 24C under the trees in our backyard. Looking good for thunder later

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Sat 03/01/2009 08:43

latest lightning map:

CHCH Weather Chaser · Sat 03/01/2009 09:44

Hey Folks, Im pleased to say that it is fine down here this morning and apart from a very light shower, the weather station recorded 0.0mm overnight and today so far so basically its not rained here. Currently 16 degrees with fine and cloudy periods and a light southerly

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sat 03/01/2009 10:18

MarkThomas wrote:Hey Folks, Im pleased to say that it is fine down here this morning and apart from a very light shower, the weather station recorded 0.0mm overnight and today so far so basically its not rained here. Currently 16 degrees with fine and cloudy periods and a light southerly

Raind rather heavy for a time over this part of the city last night Mark id say a quick 4mm overnight just at a guess.
Still sounds good for thunder later on, im off to the game today, so might be bit of excitement half way through the match

hehehe

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 03/01/2009 10:40

tornadoman18 wrote: Still sounds good for thunder later on, im off to the game today, so might be bit of excitement half way through the match hehehe

Yes, Mike. It should hail cricket balls there during the game

JohnGaul
NZThS

CHCH Weather Chaser · Sat 03/01/2009 10:57

Hey im gonna be at that game!!! MInd you ill get hurt for extreme weather i guess

. LOoking better and better to the south hardly any cloud at all now. I just went and got my ticket. Seems to be a decent crowd going as very limited lower seating now available.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sat 03/01/2009 11:21

MarkThomas wrote:Hey im gonna be at that game!!! MInd you ill get hurt for extreme weather i guess . LOoking better and better to the south hardly any cloud at all now. I just went and got my ticket. Seems to be a decent crowd going as very limited lower seating now available.

Might see ya there then mark, if ya see a guy with canty thunderstorm chaser on my back

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sat 03/01/2009 11:53

Starting to get unstable now, winds going in all directions up there, and big CU starting to develop as i type

Looking good already

Weather Watcher · Unread post by **Weather Watcher** » Sat 03/01/2009 12:06

Convection has started in eastern Otago and South Canterbury. First lightning strikes now occurring just north of Dunedin (midday). It should be a very interesting afternoon and evening!

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Sat 03/01/2009 12:24

nothing happening in auckland yet

all electrical activity has ceased in the front, near us.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 03/01/2009 12:46

Just a quick note to say I stuffed-up on that New Years Day temp list for Akld - sorry folks

- have amended those figures and comments overleaf...

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