A Period of Hot, Dry Weather - Early January

CHCH Weather Chaser · Mon 05/01/2009 10:22

Beautiful morning here. Currently 21 degrees and climbing. Looking at the 5 day forecast tomorrow going for 27 degrees and Wednesday 32!!! Looking fine for the next 5 days here and Metservice 7 day maps show no rain in the north island until Saturday. The south looks much the same except for a few showers in Westland and Coastal Southland. Blue skies forecasting warm and pretty dry conditions for next 10 days as of last night with 30 degrees tomorrow.

Ryan Thomas · Unread post by **Ryan Thomas** » Mon 05/01/2009 10:57

Awesome, I was annoyed Tuesday was gonna be a warm day but since Weds + Thurs are my days off I'll enjoy this, might head to the beach for the first time in years!

Lacertae · Unread post by **Lacertae** » Mon 05/01/2009 11:12

32 degrees with norwesterlies ... it's gonna be "fun" ...

carrot · Unread post by **carrot** » Mon 05/01/2009 11:42

Chrischurch has had it good since a few days before new years

.
December seemed quite cool and not many hot, blue sky days here.
But looks like we've got almost the rest of the week for warm weather. Yay.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 05/01/2009 11:46

Perhaps a period of easterly weather starting later in the week with some low cloud/ drizzle for eastern coasts and humid in the north.

Very comfortable weather here today with the 12C dewpoints.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 05/01/2009 15:24

27 tomorrow, 32 on Wednesday according to Metservice.

I missed the storms on Saturday, was in Blenheim where there was not a drop of rain that afternoon (apparently a minor shower before I arrived in the morning)

It looks very very dry in the hinterland.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Mon 05/01/2009 15:42

Yes Razor extremely hot the next two days atleast, id say 30C tomorrow and 30+ on Wednesday as they are predicting.
Going to be some beautiful evenings though ahead

CHCH Weather Chaser · Mon 05/01/2009 15:59

I created a topic similar to this one earlier this morning. Perhaps one of the moderators could combine the two into one as they are talking about completely the same thing. Nice pleasent day today around 22 all day with freshening NE, not too strong.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 05/01/2009 16:10

Yes temperatures will sure get into the 30's from tomorrow onwards, maybe past the 35C mark.
Another beautiful day here up to 22C at the moment with a fresh NE wind, also been watching a blow up of towering CU in the last 30 minutes more inland somewhere.
Quite cool looking i will take a photo soon, looks like it might result into a thunderstorm later if it keeps growing the way it is.
Noticed Saturdays hailstorm has pitted bits off our roof tiles which is quite interesting considering the stones were not overly big just quite heavy for a time.
Cheers
Jason.

Lacertae · Unread post by **Lacertae** » Mon 05/01/2009 16:25

I confirm, that CU looks exciting !!! $\:D/$
My car's tank is fuel, the camera is ready, water and food on the passenger seat ... sounds like a "chasing alert level" here ...

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 05/01/2009 16:52

MarkThomas wrote:I created a topic similar to this one earlier this morning. Perhaps one of the moderators could combine the two into one as they are talking about completely the same thing. Nice pleasent day today around 22 all day with freshening NE, not too strong.

Yes I see that Mark, trying to combine the two, but dosen't seem to work

JohnGaul
NZThS

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 05/01/2009 17:06

There has been a weak thunderstorm near the Marlborough ranges also this afternoon, confirmed by a moderate risk update by MS this afternoon.
Some development out there more likely for a shower later on but we shall see, not quite chase able yet.
Change on Friday might bring a possibility for storms although the pressure is a little high.
Cheers
Jason.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 05/01/2009 17:15

Yes, I can see those clouds out to the west from here. Too flat and not enough oooomph to get going.

JohnGaul
NZThS

Lacertae · Unread post by **Lacertae** » Mon 05/01/2009 17:30

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Yes, I can see those clouds out to the west from here. Too flat and not enough oooomph to get going.

JohnGaul
NZThS

Not enough "oooomph" ? Sounds very scientific and rigourous ...

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 05/01/2009 21:25

spwill wrote:Perhaps a period of easterly weather starting later in the week with some low cloud/ drizzle for eastern coasts and humid in the north.

Wow check out a few of the latest model runs - lots of widespread heavy rain, but later forecasts will probably change...

Btw, how high are the temperatures in Auckland likely to reach Wed/Thu? Forecasts suggest could be quite high.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 05/01/2009 21:39

Btw, how high are the temperatures in Auckland likely to reach Wed/Thu? Forecasts suggest could be quite high.

yes, a warm up coming by Wednesday. Mid to high 20's in Auckland for Wed/Thurs I reckon and 30C temps possible inland/eastern NI. I'm basing that forecast on modeled 850mb temps. The humidity will creep up as well. Hopefully the warm sunny weather runs into the weekend.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 05/01/2009 21:39

David wrote:
Btw, how high are the temperatures in Auckland likely to reach Wed/Thu? Forecasts suggest could be quite high.

What's high for Auckland? 30C maybe?
If so, it would feel much warmer with high humidity readings.
At least when it gets to 36C here in ChCh or even Dunedin, the heat wouldn't be as uncomfortable.

JohnGaul
NZThS

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Mon 05/01/2009 22:14

David wrote:Wow check out a few of the latest model runs - lots of widespread heavy rain, but later forecasts will probably change...

See what you mean with the latest GFS run for the weekend. That's potentially one big slow moving storm affecting not just Auckland but most of the North Island. One to watch in the next day or two...

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 05/01/2009 22:27

I see there's a nice heavy shower sitting out in Pegasus Bay at the moment, trackers picked up a few strikes too.
My father is getting a plane fixed after it flew through Saturdays storm instead of diverting to Wellington.
The plane has suffered major denting on the nose and wings after hail believed to be the size of golf balls high up.
Latest model runs certainly prog an interesting low system for the North Island and even the top half of the South maybe.
Its at this time of the year a sub tropical low could form quite quickly.
Cheers
Jason.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 05/01/2009 22:28

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Yes I see that Mark, trying to combine the two, but dosen't seem to work

JohnGaul
NZThS

Might be a user issue there John.

Topics merged...

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 05/01/2009 22:36

Foggy wrote: Topics merged...

Thanks Will

JohnGaul
NZThS

Myself · Unread post by **Myself** » Mon 05/01/2009 23:46

30C seems a fair bet for tomorrow, but one thing that could put the brakes on is the high cloud. If you get too much of that, it might keep temperatures in the high 20s... (bone chilling, I know)
Here in Wellington, we can expect highs of about 20C, which probably will happen late morning, before the northerlies pick up and ruin the entire day. So, just a standard Wellington summers day in store.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Tue 06/01/2009 06:59

Northerlies or not, I'll be happy to see a year of more normal rainfall, last year being the 3rd wettest since the 1890s, thanks to regular soakings. Saturday afternoon was promising - the frontal passage was harmless here with no precip. and virtually no wind. We may get more critical SW changes this year - they were almost completely absent last year.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 06/01/2009 08:33

At least when it gets to 36C here in ChCh or even Dunedin, the heat wouldn't be as uncomfortable.

When the temp gets to 36C I dont think it matters what the dewpoints are, bloody hot.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 06/01/2009 12:58

Warm start to the day up to 25C before back to 24C now with thickening high cloud and a fresh gusty NWer.
I see MS have a moderate risk out tomorrow for areas south of Christchurch, talking about a possible NE undercutting.
Its abit iffy with it being so NW but then again the Dewpoints are not too bad for tomorrow considering.
Perhaps Paul could explain this in more detail?.
Cheers
Jason.

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