Unstable weekend ahead, 17-18th Jan!!!

[Storm Struck]

As we have been aware the models all week have lead up to this weekend and plotting fairly well for instability across the South Island and parts of the North Island.
Lightning strikes are already flaring off Fiordland and Westland right now, with rain expected to get heavier overnight.
Tomorrow the risk remains more or so better for Southland, Otago,South Canterbury, and parts of the West Coast. However a better set up is on Sunday with a low crossing the central South Island, with thunderstorms and hail likely from Southland to Canterbury.
Cheers
Jason.

[Vertigo]

it does look great indeed at this time.

[Storm Struck]

Beautiful arch over Canterbury this morning with a breezy N-NW wind here, around 23C at the moment which might warm up if the upper level moves through.
Should be an active 48 hours ahead especailly for the South Island, Look towards the Alps tonight and we should be seeing some nice lightning with storms getting near the Foothills also the mention of them spilling eastwards on the thunder outlook.
Just seen tomorrows chart from MS, I still would have thought a high risk exists rather than moderate.
Also I think with lighter winds the CB tops should reach good heights and develope strong cells, with slighty larger hail than 5-15mm.
Cheers
Jason.

[NZstorm]

Also I think with lighter winds the CB tops should reach good heights and develope strong cells, with slighty larger hail than 5-15mm.

Jason, generaly there needs to be good wind shear in place for large hail in Canterbury. Wind shear allows storms to become organised and persistent, whereas the lighter upper winds favour pulse type storms. The Ashburton hail storm occured on a day where the 500mb wind was 45kts.

[mikestormchaser]

Hows it looking all up for tomorrow anyways NZstorm? still looking good for canterbury/ chch?

[03Stormchaser]

Still looks on, metservice seems to still be in agreement.

[melja]

TM forum has thunder north and south of timaru

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I think it is CAPE -able tomorrow

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Tornado Tim]

Very Funny NZ T/storm Soc!
Looking at the models again It will about 200-400j/kg of CAPE to the SI.
Quite good!

[mikestormchaser]

wahoooo well you experts know the models better then me, sounding good!

[03Stormchaser]

Looks like Invercargill has had a decent thunderstorm this evening.

[gllitz]

Looks like good CAPE (~300) and LI (-1.4) values for Chch later today...should be a good day for storms....fingers crossed!

[spwill]

Daytime heating should be enough today to trigger storms down there.

[Andrew Massie]

Some CB's coming up already... Aaron and I are on standby for a chase..!

18-jan-09 019.jpg

[Lacertae]

Yeah, quite amazing CB's this morning ! I've got a few shots, I will see if I have time to show them.

EDIT : well, not good ... I wanted to try the HDR imaging but the clouds are changing so quickly that I cannot stack the images !!! Only one single pic is quite OK ...

18-01-09-01.jpg

[mikestormchaser]

Well jase and I are going to be heading out ourselves Andrew do you have my number? could meet up somewhere during the day?

[NZstorm]

The upper trough looks to nose into the central North Island later today so maybe a storm or two over the southern Waikato. But looks good for regions Taranaki to Canterbury.

That area of cb's out to the west of the SI on the sat pic looks like a winter cold pool!

[Lacertae]

What do you reckon about the best place ? North, south, west of the city ?
And just in case, here is my cellphone number : 021 163 6094. I'm not used to hear the ringtone so it's normal if I'm a bit long to pick up a call ...

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Just had a report of a waterspout off Scarborough
Nice CB inthat direction observed from here.

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Tornado Tim]

Wow this is amazing that CB's are popping up so early not much of a Cap then eh?

[Lacertae]

Here it is :

pan_18-01-09-01.JPG

[Ryan Thomas]

What a day to work 2:30pm-1am, , hopefully see some storms on my breaks if I'm lucky! Looks very nice outside at the moment..

[03Stormchaser]

NE has picked up now, should push the dew points up a little, although there is quite abit of cloud cover about that may hinder some heating.

[Lacertae]

Great stuff over the hills this morning ! And do you think I've caught something interesting on the second picture (also visible on the first one) ? May be the remains of that waterspout ?

18-01-09-02.jpg

18-01-09-03.jpg

[03Stormchaser]

Yea could have been something there. Will be interesting if any photos surface of the waterspout.

Currently we have 5 chasers sround here all staring to the heavens waiting... lol