Waikato Stormchasers United - Calling Akldrs

[Tornado Tim]

So ricky and tgsnoopy are you saying that you want to take your cars and pick people up for the chase?

[Myself]

If you really want better charts someone could download the MM5 source code (or WRF) and initialise it off the GFS, then take that laptop along with you. The GFS by itself is too coarse, and of course it's easily the worst of all the models.

[TokWW]

Well Tim, tgsnoopy hails from Tauranga and is often on the road already, so he will always be independent. Ricky often travels for his job and as stated is already setup on board. So often, its just a matter of tagging along with or following "The Professionals"!! And I would love to be a part of the chase...

[jamie]

comming home a month early... recession has caused me big head aches. Will be back midnight saturday and will be spending Feb at the olds. I should have the wind up and running by early nest week too. I cant wait to see the wind speeds we will see on that.

[Andrew Massie]

We have the Canterbury Weather Watchers, have met up a few times in the past to view videos havea chat etc but storms seem few and far between recently.

Ha ha, 03! If you knew what the day AFTER that post was going to bring...!

[TokWW]

comming home a month early... recession has caused me big head aches. Will be back midnight saturday and will be spending Feb at the olds. I should have the wind up and running by early nest week too. I cant wait to see the wind speeds we will see on that.

Good news for us, bad news for earning more funds...

Look forward to seeing Foggy's Boltek back on line too.

Graeme

[Tornado Tim]

Graeme just told me, Thunderstorm potential is 80 %
Cape very good at 310J/KG.
DP @ 17.9 C.
I think we may be chasing today....YAY!

[Manukau heads obs]

clouds to the east of me are looking nice and punchy after breaking through an inversion

[jamie]

Well im looking at the motorway south and its already crawling so id say within an hour it will be standstill. O wait its stoped right now. Im going to head down to Hamilton in the nest few minutes. Im not waiting any longer or i wont get out of this poorly roaded city.

[Vertigo]

yea, i dont think its a good time for a storm chase from auckland south.. or north for that matter. but hey, heres hoping something fires up above us

just noticed the Cb to the east of auckland, looks to be above the coromandel and dumping some rain at the moment. radar shows it moving this way slowly and growing.

[TokWW]

The MS indicates a Convergence line along the west coast from Te Kuiti up to northland:

North of a line from about East Cape to Wanganui, there is a low risk of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Most convective activity will be along the main sea breeze convergence line, which is expected to lie close to the west coast. With slow storm motions, any thunderstorms are likely to be accompanied by heavy rain.


Within this convergence zone, there is a slightly higher risk in a band between about Manukau Harbour and Te Kuiti. This moderate area is now extended further north through Auckland to about Hokianga. Rainfall rates could reach as high as 25mm per hour in this area, with small hail.

So less likely for Sth Waikato now but definitely from Hamilton Nth to Hokianga Harbour, so as Jamie says - the traffic out of town will be diabolical so may be best to stay put.

I'll see if we three at least can get together at for a chat if nothing else! I'll learn something from young Tim just listening to him...

Tgsnoopy - well its up to him if he wants to come over, I'll text to let him know if there is any activity at all. The first buildup I saw have broken up or moved away - I can't really see to the north fom here at work at the Kinleith millsite.

Have a great weekend folks! Stay safe if you're driving...

[Manukau heads obs]

not alot happening here...maybe still might...
we do have a sw sea breeze, and did reach 27C at one stage, and the DP is good at 16C
but I dont think there is enough instability at the moment...
but does look to be a shower building over Pukekohe way...

[Tornado Tim]

Here are pic looking North...I am still humming haaring about it, it isnt terribly unstable as MHO said.
It could turn into a night time Thunderstorm.

[Michael]

theres showers in papakura at the moment.

[Tornado Tim]

People that live more south of Hamilton that might get this nice CB coming there way.

[TokWW]

17:30: Sth Waikato: AM radio still just ticks away with the neighbour's elec fence signal, rain to SE of Tokoroa, convergence zone just 5km to west of here again, so all I can see is grey bottoms of cloud... and some small sun breakthrough. Very still and calm, T 22.9ºC; DP 16.9ºC. Clouds seem stationary, should get some rain out of this at least. May be 30 mins yet...

[jamie]

MetService: AMENDED TO ADD RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT WESTERN PARTS OF NORTHLAND,AUCKLAND, WAIKATO AND WAITOMO

North of a line from about East Cape to Wanganui, there is a low risk of afternoon and evening thunderstorms, which could produce heavy rain and small hail. Most convective activity will be along the main sea breeze convergence line, which is expected to lie close to the west coast from Northland down to Waitomo. In this area there is a moderate risk of locally heavy downpours late this afternoon or evening from slow moving showers or thunderstorms, with rainfall rates between 25 and 40mm per hour, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued. Rainfall of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding,especially about low-lying areas such as streams,rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips.

Cant see the justification in this. There is didly squat out there.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4839072a11.html

[Manukau heads obs]

wasnt home, but we got 4mm from a heavy shower of rain at 7pm
that shower had moved out to sea, and had some nice structure with it at the base....