A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
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A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
According to forecasts given from MetService, we are in for a Thunderstormic WE here in Canterbury
Lets see what happens or
Is it CAPE - able?
JohnGaul
NZThS
Lets see what happens or
Is it CAPE - able?
JohnGaul
NZThS
JohnGaul
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
Hmmm...CAPE only showing at 50 or so...with LI around 2...not all that favourable....for CHCH, anyway...don't know about further inland...NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:According to forecasts given from MetService, we are in for a Thunderstormic WE here in Canterbury
Lets see what happens or
Is it CAPE - able?
JohnGaul
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"Saru mo ki kara ochiru"
Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
I hope you mean -2...or this thing is over even before it began!gllitz wrote:Hmmm...CAPE only showing at 50 or so...with LI around 2...not all that favourable....for CHCH, anyway...don't know about further inland...NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:According to forecasts given from MetService, we are in for a Thunderstormic WE here in Canterbury
Lets see what happens or
Is it CAPE - able?
JohnGaul
NZThS
Remember though GFS CAPEs are not all that trustworthy, because it can't estimate ground temperatures very well at all (assuming it uses surface based CAPE).
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
It has a chance, but the levels are are on the low end scale.
I usually go by a rough guide for CAPE as only 1 condition req for a thunderstorm, You need to factor in the other conditions such as sea breeze conversion, cold fronts undercutting the whole thing ect.
Guides for CAPE alone:
0-75 j/kg No thunderstorm
75-150 j/kg Possible thunderstorm
151-300 j/kg Likely thunderstorm
301-750 j/kg Definite thunderstorm
750-"x" j/kg Severe thunderstorm
This is only going by what I have seen in the CAPE models compared to how many thunderstorms eventuated from the CAPE Levels alone.
As from what I have seen it is possible: But looking at the pic below to christchurch residents it does not look good 4 you.
Merge in other factors and make your own mind up..
I usually go by a rough guide for CAPE as only 1 condition req for a thunderstorm, You need to factor in the other conditions such as sea breeze conversion, cold fronts undercutting the whole thing ect.
Guides for CAPE alone:
0-75 j/kg No thunderstorm
75-150 j/kg Possible thunderstorm
151-300 j/kg Likely thunderstorm
301-750 j/kg Definite thunderstorm
750-"x" j/kg Severe thunderstorm
This is only going by what I have seen in the CAPE models compared to how many thunderstorms eventuated from the CAPE Levels alone.
As from what I have seen it is possible: But looking at the pic below to christchurch residents it does not look good 4 you.
Merge in other factors and make your own mind up..
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
Yup, they are using surface values. So really the GFS has no clue. It is not factoring in whether there will be added moisture drawn in from the sea, and I bet they underestimate the surface temperatures. So the real CAPE is probably going to be more than that.
But really CAPE is just a number. Nothing beats having a sounding in front of you and doing the trace yourself, then you see if the CAPE is capped at low levels, or a very thin one that extends up high (and hence could get high cloud tops) but probably very marginal for surface parcels to ever get up there (due to mixing out).
But really CAPE is just a number. Nothing beats having a sounding in front of you and doing the trace yourself, then you see if the CAPE is capped at low levels, or a very thin one that extends up high (and hence could get high cloud tops) but probably very marginal for surface parcels to ever get up there (due to mixing out).
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
Thats what I thought, thinking nothing much will eventuate, mind you I haven't checked MetService's Thunderstorm outlook yet, as well, so I don't really know their prospective?spwill wrote:Has been looking warm in the upper levels.
JohnGaul
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
Tomorrow any activity will only be inland as a fine sunny day is forecast here in Christchurch. Sunday maybe....
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
Yes, I thought the forecasts for Canterbury in this morning's PRESS sounded a bit strange for tomorrow and Sunday?
How could you get thunderstorms around midday with a 31C temperature with SW and becoming NE in the afternoon?
JohnGaul
NZThS
How could you get thunderstorms around midday with a 31C temperature with SW and becoming NE in the afternoon?
JohnGaul
NZThS
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
Yes id agree Mark! i don't think we will get a thunderstorm in Christchurch tomorrow, but again yeah inland would be the key.MarkThomas wrote:Tomorrow any activity will only be inland as a fine sunny day is forecast here in Christchurch. Sunday maybe....
Sunday though with a colder airflow moving in yes that sounds more promising.
Mike
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
There will be some decent convergence running up the interior of the South Island Saturday afternoon, onshore SE/NE winds converging with inland W. But there won't be enough moisture there to produce the instability for thunderstorms.
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
Towering thunderclouds should be easily visible from the Port Hills (or from high buildings in Chch) though.Yes id agree Mark! i don't think we will get a thunderstorm in Christchurch tomorrow, but again yeah inland would be the key.
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
Ok - looking for photos tomorrow evening guys... I mean whether there is any build up or not. There may be a convergence inland but upper temps may not be cool enough... we'll all wait and see.
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
More of an inland event if anything for tomorrow as i said before, with Sunday being the pick of the litter for the rest of Canterbury and Christchurch.
A more favourable cold southerly change going up against a moist onshore NE flow as the norm goes.
Yes it will be mostly fine tomorrow and warm, but there is likely to be some cumulus about in areas i would imagine maybe leading to a shower in the evening for the CBD and other eastern areas.
Can we be cheecky and get a 3rd thunderstorm day for 2009 why not aye.
Cheers
Jason.
A more favourable cold southerly change going up against a moist onshore NE flow as the norm goes.
Yes it will be mostly fine tomorrow and warm, but there is likely to be some cumulus about in areas i would imagine maybe leading to a shower in the evening for the CBD and other eastern areas.
Can we be cheecky and get a 3rd thunderstorm day for 2009 why not aye.
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
Problem with Sunday is the southerly change leaves the cold upper air down in the south seas. But the southerly looks to run into some quite moist air over the bottom of the North Island Sunday evening so looks to be a thundery risk there.
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
all these things i wouldn't know of NZstorm its very good to know.. so i dont get my hopes upNZstorm wrote:Problem with Sunday is the southerly change leaves the cold upper air down in the south seas. But the southerly looks to run into some quite moist air over the bottom of the North Island Sunday evening so looks to be a thundery risk there.
Mike
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
Very warm upper etc. I don't think Sunday looks any good. Perhaps, I say perhaps if those surface moisture figures and temps overcome the warm upper air then maybe an inland thunderstorm could be on the cards.
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
Very muggy here in rangiora this morning with 22deg and 80% humidity so lots of mosture around.
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
I still dont understand why MS are going for a greater risk today than tomorrow, when i think the slightly better chance is tomorrow if anything.
No signs of any development inland yet although they are saying late afternoon/evening.
Cheers
Jason.
No signs of any development inland yet although they are saying late afternoon/evening.
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
Just had a few random spots of rain out here with some weaker CU forms about, also abit of virga in the sky.
Looks like a few showers popping up further south on the 1pm radar.
Cheers
Jason.
Looks like a few showers popping up further south on the 1pm radar.
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
Shower activity seems to be concentrated south of about Timaru instead of the Canterbury foothills so far this afternoon.
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
Hey guys, is that some sort of a pileus ?
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
I noticed some as well at about 19:40, also looking north.
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- NZstorm
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Re: A Canterbury Thunderstormic WE
Great photos! Looks like some elevated convection on the front which looks to have been sliding gradually north all day. Interesting.