Subtropical Low/TC Innis 20th-21st Feb

[Tornado Tim]

Had another 1.2mm last night.
Yea I cant believe how slow the Low is going too...

[Tornado Tim]

Mid South Islanders maybe rather pleased with the latest GFS model run.
When the ex cyclone passes through you have a second low coming through bringing with it a lot of CAPE with it.
On the 26th the GFS is suggesting very good conditions to produce thunderstorms over the West then drag them on through to the East on towards christchurch overnight.
CAPE levels as i said are looking impressive with 680.00 j/kg and Lifted index of -3
Convective Inhibition is looking good with hardly any resistance to any parcels of air rising from the surface: Level 0.
Just looking ahead.. don't take this seriously yet as it might just flop out.
Ill look at GFS when it is closer to the time.
But it maybe something to look forward to anyway especially if you want to do some night time lightning shots!

[Andy]

Nice one Tim. Keep us informed as it gets closer.

We could still do with some more rain as it was very dry before this last bit, maybe some more tomorrow.

[Manukau heads obs]

how much rain has fallen in central otago in total now from the ex TC?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Looking thundery westwards along the Alps from here, now. sure that CAPE wasn't for today or tomorrow???
Nothing on the long range so far for Thursday?

By the way, it is now 23.5C with a NW, not 15C as suggested in yesterday's PRESS ?

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Ryan Thomas]

Nearly cracking 26 here, I was surprised how they were forecasting 15 in the press and on metservice for a while with NW winds coming up..

[spwill]

Looks cool/cold south of Chch, at 1pm Timaru 16C, Oamaru 14C, Invercargill 12C.

More comfortable weather here today with falling dewpoints, now down to 15C. Auckland temps around 24C this afternoon.

[NZstorm]

I like todays 00Z GFS lifted index chart for next Sunday over northern NZ.

[trickytiger]

went for a drive down to Oamaru today and was lots of surface flooding, main road near the airport was closed because of it and had to take a 20min detour which also had surface flooding, up to around a foot deep that we had to drive through.

[Manukau heads obs]

possibly another low of tropical origin next Friday?

[ricky]

Yes I like the look of the similarity between GFS and ECMWF, will be worth a new topic if the next few runs hold up..

[Brassnz]

This is possibly not the most useful information (I was away for the weekend - camping near Whitianga, which was certainly hit with some good rain), but for the 72hrs from 5pm Thursday 19th to 5pm Sunday 22nd, we received 82mm rain from this event at Laingholm.

[Manukau heads obs]

Hi
what type of rain gauge?
(size, etc)
as you always seem to maybe over read on the rain totals a bit I think?

[Brassnz]

Hi Brian

just a cheapo round plastic tube gauge I was given a few years ago. Am not home at present but I'd guess approx an inch diameter. I'd certainly never suggest it was terribly accurate, but it does seem to offer an indication of trend over time, and generally seems to read fairly consistently with the trends of other nearby stations such as yours. For example there have been occasions recently where West Akld has received higher (or lower) rainfall than across town.

Of course, more often than not the readings are run-of-the-mill, and unless there's a large variation cf readings elsewhere I won't bother posting them. Small variations would be absolutely meaningless given lack of accuracy.

If anything, my main issue is the UNDER-reading of the gauge, as it's difficult finding a suitably clear area away from the rain shadow of the house or the native bush we are surrounded by.

Cheers
Andy

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Plenty of heavy scattered showers inland mid and north canterbury. Decent rain falling in South Canterbury most the day with a decent rain band. Just a quick shower early this morning is all we have had here in CHCH. Mainly fine day with cloudy periods and cold southerlies. Metservice a little of the money with their forecast of "periods of rain". Blue skies forecast much more accurate. Good work Tony!

[Storm Struck]

Not a drop here all day until now with a few spots falling.
The upper level trough is obviously going over as MS pointed out on the thunder outlook, clouds starting to become unstable with some virga even .
Not too cold though with the SW wind which is now more SE, just slightly on the cool/mild side.
Abit of a patchy week ahead really with some instability thrown in there somewhere .
Cheers
Jason.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yeah i think you might get some heavy showers tonight as may inland areas. Unfortunately its not coastal stuff at the moment. At least not around CHCH

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Nothing sexy here regarding today's weather, sadly mad:

JohnGaul
NZThS

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Man the 6pm and 7pm radar are almost identical in everyway!

[mikestormchaser]

Whats the thunder outlook looking like this week you storm experts? NZstorm?
Glittz said looked like a "possible" thunder chance on thursday..

[Storm Struck]

Overcast here now no major rain though seems to be sticking more inland, even a rainbow before how lucky.
Are you coming to the meeting on Wednesday Mark?.
Cheers
Jason.

[Tornado Tim]

Whats the thunder outlook looking like this week you storm experts? NZstorm?
Glittz said looked like a "possible" thunder chance on thursday..

When did Glittz post? I looked back couldn't find anything for a forecast for Thursday. Did the Mods remove it?
The GFS is saying atm that the CAPE is backing off as it hits the West of the SI.
Still enough for a thunderstorm... depends if there will be enough daytime surface heating going on over the water to make enough water to evaporate and shift over the island and get pushed up by the Terrain.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Did the Mods remove it?

....um no

JohnGaul
NZThS

[mikestormchaser]

Whats the thunder outlook looking like this week you storm experts? NZstorm?
Glittz said looked like a "possible" thunder chance on thursday..

When did Glittz post? I looked back couldn't find anything for a forecast for Thursday. Did the Mods remove it?
The GFS is saying atm that the CAPE is backing off as it hits the West of the SI.
Still enough for a thunderstorm... depends if there will be enough daytime surface heating going on over the water to make enough water to evaporate and shift over the island and get pushed up by the Terrain.

oh no he didn't post it tornado Tim i was just chatten to him via messenger on the weekend.

[gllitz]

AGGGH!!!!
Yes, I DID mention in a PM on messenger that the initial numbers looked good...CAPE WAS over 300 and LI around -1......and then every model run since then has backed off......grrrrr....mikey....you know better than that!!