CAPEable Late February and Early March

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Tue 24/02/2009 11:02

Started a new Topic as this is unrelated the ex-tropical cyclone.
Here are some CB's developing on the 24th of Feb at 10.24 AM
Metservice I would post a Moderate risk for Waikato thunderstorms as more are developing to the west and shifting into very moist warm air which will fuel it to the east.
Sun out in full force after 4.8mm of rain fell here.
DP is increasing here currently @ 17 Â°C.
Update: DP has risen to 18Â°C these CB's are certainly getting moisture fed into them.

Dale · Unread post by **Dale** » Tue 24/02/2009 11:17

Everything going up over Pukekohe atm has pileus caps, so there is a huge amount of energy available & it is certainly being tapped in.. along with the shear pushing the towers over but being so early in the day, isnt quite the best sign.. hopefully a little more heating throughout the afternoon might change things. Looking directly over the Bombay Hills now a huge one has just gone up again with pileus.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 24/02/2009 11:46

Trough has moved over Auckland now, would have been more interesting if it came across in the late afternoon.
Dry at my place but some local heavy showers around Auckland this morning, now sunny and 22C.
photo shows a heavy shower over Devonport.

Dale · Unread post by **Dale** » Tue 24/02/2009 11:59

That explains things a little better re trough.. its been a mad rush since daybreak, moving premises etc didnt have a chance to do a specific model run until just now. Doh.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Tue 24/02/2009 16:44

Wow March 6 looks really good on GFS for thunderstorms.
Hopefully it wont change to much, but GFS always changes so...

South Islanders, Hopefully you will get some daytime surface heating going on on the 27th around midday to 6PM.
GFS is saying that the low is getting allot of moisture as it will be hovering over the Tasman.
I really hope it pans out for guys.
Regards
Tim

Lacertae · Unread post by **Lacertae** » Tue 24/02/2009 17:04

Nice picture Spwill !

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Sun 01/03/2009 11:56

WOW Look at this I have never seen so much CAPE on the outskirts of NZ...
1250 j/kg.. Im interested to find out how much CAPE Was around in Sept 2005 around Hamilton when the tornado hit....

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 01/03/2009 12:35

Im interested to find out how much CAPE Was around in Sept 2005 around Hamilton when the tornado hit....

It was a low CAPE, high shear set up. Likely CAPE was only a few hundred j/kg.

Maybe a slight chance of some thundery activity over northern Waikato later Tuesday due to an easterly surge.
We'll need to see the surface dps hold up around 16-17C though.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 03/03/2009 07:22

Thunderstorm risk still looks there for late this afternoon/evening. We are looking for convergence, sea breezes versus the incoming E/SE flow.

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Tue 03/03/2009 08:08

NZstorm wrote:Thunderstorm risk still looks there for late this afternoon/evening. We are looking for convergence, sea breezes versus the incoming E/SE flow.

Useless Metservice site is on the fritz again this morning.

Severe Convection/Thunderstorm Outlook

Rural 3 Day Rain Forecast

Just two examples and they have been down for a while

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Tue 03/03/2009 11:06

NZstorm, it does look good today.
And as you say depends if the DP's are high enough.
OK atm: 16Â°C @ Matangi

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Tue 03/03/2009 13:49

This is a bit strange... Relatively high dew points 17Â°C and yet not a cloud in the sky? Hmmm.
The Sw breeze should blow some colder breeze aloft as well...

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Tue 03/03/2009 14:35

the sounding today in whenuapai is awful. not at all favourable for thunderstorms, and even an LI of 1.1C.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 03/03/2009 16:46

Building up inland now on the wind change, probably over the Ranges.

edit Thunderstorm SW of Tauranga on the high country.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 03/03/2009 16:53

Can see large T/cu distant east from here in Grey Lynn. Also observed that cb go up last hr in direction of western BOP.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Tue 03/03/2009 17:28

Nice CB developing to the SE of me...

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 03/03/2009 17:46

Hamilton detector picking the T-storm in the BOP up well but plotting it all way out over the ocean.

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Tue 03/03/2009 18:12

yes, can see that storm from auckland. very clear day. lets hope it sparks up significantly.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Tue 03/03/2009 18:38

Im Sure it will....., it is very dark looking East from where I am.
WOW the lightning radar is going nuts!!!

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 03/03/2009 18:40

up to 17 strikes per min. looks like places like Matamata could get a doozy!

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 03/03/2009 18:48

wow up to 18 now..... and it looks like its current path it could get rather close to hamilton if it stays alive. Wish i was down there damit!!! i would be out there chasing it.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 03/03/2009 18:50

heres how the closet cb looks from here

yes, picking up lots of strikes from them

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Tue 03/03/2009 18:52

WOW this CB is giving us heavy rain!! al of a sudden within a few sec winds picked up and dumped whole lot of heavy rain and still doing so... with quite strong gusts have look at my station...

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Tue 03/03/2009 18:55

Crap this CB is intense!!!

Manukau heads obs · Tue 03/03/2009 18:59

looks impressive from here!
i see its moving WNW too

I see the M/S updated their severe CB risk at 5:56pm to say CB's for the waikato!

they should have listended to you guys this morning, LOL!

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CAPEable Late February and Early March

CAPEable Late February and Early March

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Re: CAPEable Late February and Early March

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Re: CAPEable Late February and Early March

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Re: CAPEable Late February and Early March

Re: CAPEable Late February and Early March

Re: CAPEable Late February and Early March