Thought id start a thread on this so we can end discussion in the Innis thread.
Models seem to show this low passing right over us, dumping the majority of its heavy rain on the eastern half of the north island, tho this picture might change.
At this stage there should be warnings for the Kaimais and the surrounding area.
Possible storm chase on? Might be a bit far away for me (wheres the dedication!? )
its places like TeArhoa and Paeroa, and Thames that will get the worst of the wind, being in the lee of the ranges, i.e getting gusts that fall down the side of those ranges and a lee trough effect as well
but for other areas there will be a NE gale
note its not a TC but a deepning low of sub tropical origin
Does any one know how damaging these winds could get for places like Kaikohe? At this stage anyways
I'll add that if the atmosphere can destablise in the warm sector then thunderstorm squall gusts to 60knots (110km/h) on the cards from Northland to Bay of Plenty overnight Saturday/Sunday am.
for rain, it will be different as the rain bands are going to affect eastern areas more this time
the wind wont be as bad as the early winter easterly gales we have had over the last 2 winters
Hi Windwatcher - it could be worse for NZ generally as it's going to be travelling directly over the top of the North Island and quite possibly the upper South Island. All depends on how much it deepens and how firmly the high to the south holds (boosting those easterlies). Most models I've seen show the low scooting by in 48 hours...but I think Northland will be more affected by this low than Innis. Saturday morning may be the peak of the storm in Northland.
NZstorm - I agree that winds in Northland could gust around 110km/h in some areas although I don't think it'll need squalls to get there..the squash zone may be strong enough to do that on its own!
This low reminds me a bit of the July storm last year that brought all the flooding and wind damage to Te Aroha and Horowhenua. Winds in Te Aroha can gust up to 150 even 180km/h in this stuff. I remember NIWA telling me the weather station was blown apart on Mt Te Aroha during Cyclone Fergus with it measuring 225km/h (average I think...of course it's a kilometre high).
Looking at the models and charts, I think that the winds you're suggesting at this point are a bit on the high side. I think there will be some good blows too but I wonder just how significant this whole storm system will be.
I think it's easy to get excited about these set ups but they so often change.
I bet it must be a challenge to try and not create panic through the mass media and just deliver the facts.
Yeah Northland at this stage definately looks like getting the brunt of the storm and therefore most rain. However, it still appears very quick moving. Doesnt even look like it will last more than 18 hours (the rain) in most areas. Intense yes, but rain warnings i dont think will be anything like Innis, at least not at this point in time. Long as Saturday is fine here. Metservice need to change their forecast once again. Says showers retreating to the coast for Canterbury and showers clearing tomorrow for CHCH. The showers cleared around 1pm this afternoon. Radars show it clear too. To be honest i'm finding the more and more problems with the Metservice. Often errors and not accurate and overloading to extremity!
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
Skywatch: Oh i don't think Te Aroha will see winds that strong...was really just being reflective as this low is following a similar plot to last July. I had actually edited my posting but it appears it didn't work! The edit (after the squash zone line) said that I thought the winds would mostly be under 70km/h for most places but gusts around certain areas like Tutukaka Harbour may reach 110km/h. But to be guessing wind speeds this far out is simply that - guessing. Even the charts aren't yet agreeing on the depth of air pressure so it's hard to know wind speeds.
Eastern Waikato may see winds gusting to well into the 100s - maybe up to 130 in Te Aroha if it pans out the right way...I know this from living there for a long time and judging on past experience...but it always comes down to wind direction...a SE wind is nothing like an Easterly. Most places, like Auckland, will probably think it's a "storm in a teacup"...time will tell.
As far as heavy rain goes - looks like it will be out to the east mostly, although latest models seem to be showing a shift to the low moving in a SW direction...again like last Julys storm.
This low definitely has the potential to change... but talking about them in advance is healthy and gives people the chance to learn more about the unpredictability of these systems. Watching a system develop and grow (or die) is what creates forums like this.
It's a challenge when journalists edit your stories for time - and cut out important lines that are needed to give a "bigger picture". I have the tough job of getting people excited about the weather but at the same time ensuring we don't hype everything up. Trust me that isn't always easy...this forum is good for grounding sometimes though.
Overnight models have changed. M/S maps shows the low back further east with Northland getting some heavy rain and intense fairly short lived rain in eastern areas of the North. Nothing at all for the South Island from this subtropical low. Temperatures back up into mid 20's in the weekend. Saturday says "drizzle turning to rain" for Christchurch but im pretty sure this needs to be changed to a fine day and i think possibly mid 20's with clear skies. Next Wednesday maybe a return to the Northwesterlies with a bit of luck. My lawn needs some moisture taken out of it.
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
MarkThomas wrote:...Temperatures back up into mid 20's in the weekend. Saturday says "drizzle turning to rain" for Christchurch but im pretty sure this needs to be changed to a fine day and i think possibly mid 20's with clear skies....
Oh you do, do you? Can you please provide a meteorological reasoning as to why your gut feeling is better than the M/S? Don't just willy-nilly post on here w/out telling us why... (I 'm NOT calling the kettle black, here...I'd like to think that I haven't done it...at least, not recently )...but I might as well say it's gonna hail green lollipops on SAT....
No glitz i have been looking at the latest models and maps etc etc and metservice is forecasting early 20's with drizzly light rain but i have seen other things that suggests drizzle or rain wont develop on Saturday till early evening so im thinking due to this a couple degrees more on the highs due to some fine spells that seem more than possible on Saturday.
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
but I might as well say it's gonna hail green lollipops on SAT....
Well that would suck
Sorry, first post. i'll get my coat.
Having just emigrated from Brisvegas I have to admit I'm excited about the forecast for Auckland as well as looking forward to a real winter.
I am having trouble finding the Subtropical low unless the reference is to the low east of tazzie? Pretty sure that doesn't have a subtropical origin though.
)
Can you please provide a meteorological reasoning as to why your gut feeling is better than the M/S? Don't just willy-nilly post on here w/out telling us why... 
(I 'm NOT calling the kettle black, here...I'd like to think that I haven't done it...at least, not recently 
)...but I might as well say it's gonna hail green lollipops on SAT.... 
