Thunderstorms & Cold Outbreak , March 8-13th!!

[Storm Struck]

It certainly will be alot cooler ahead this week coming with several SW changes and possibly some instability in the air.
Tomorrow there might be some isolated showers about south Canterbury which may turn thundery and down to Southland Otago as well.
Tuesday possibly looks like the best bet for thunderstorms and hail in the afternoon/evening on a strong SW change right up to about Wellington, and then that continued risk could well affect some parts of the North Island into Wednesday.
There is another front sweeping through on Wednesday also, but the wind will already be SW so it just depends on daytime heating.
There is a change coming up this evening but i dont think anything other than a few very coastal showers.
Thoughts people .
Edit- This is to now include today which might produce something thundery, Wind has shifted to a NE with day time heating and some CU clouds towards the West and SW now.
Cheers
Jason.

[Storm Struck]

Looks like a thunderstorm has developed about inland Southland, nothing much in our skies yet the CU before has dissapeared now.
Cheers
Jason.

[mikestormchaser]

Hmm well i noticed fencepost was saying some thundery showers possible later, nothing out there looks thundery at all though, its a beautiful day out there, and it sure has a feel to autumn in the air aswel!
However still alot of heat in that sun

[NZstorm]

A shot of polar air moves across NZ Tuesday/Wednesday. Certainly looks good for thunder/hail in both east and west coasts as far north possibly as Auckland early Wednesday.

This 500mb temp chart from 00Z GFS for 09Z Tuesday evening.

[melja]

Hmm well i noticed fencepost was saying some thundery showers possible later, nothing out there looks thundery at all though, its a beautiful day out there, and it sure has a feel to autumn in the air aswel!
However still alot of heat in that sun

What feels like autum about the 29deg we had both today and yesturday it feels very summer like to me

[mikestormchaser]

Hmm well i noticed fencepost was saying some thundery showers possible later, nothing out there looks thundery at all though, its a beautiful day out there, and it sure has a feel to autumn in the air aswel!
However still alot of heat in that sun

What feels like autum about the 29deg we had both today and yesturday it feels very summer like to me

well what i meant was, just the light winds, clear skies and the sun is definitely lower now aswel

[Storm Struck]

Wasnt light winds out this way, had a strong gusty westerly from mid afternoon and certainly felt more like summer to me.
Strong Southerly arrived about an hour ago quite gusty at times with some lower stratus cloud rocketing through.
Still a few CB's firing off occasionally down south with that developing Trough, but this southerly will loose gas overnight i think.
Cheers
Jason.

[gllitz]

Certainly looking much more CAPEable with 12Z model run...will have to keep an eye on this one...LI pretty low and CAPE around 400 J/Kg for tomorrow (TUES) arvo/evening around here in Canty...interesting....dew points not overly promising, though.

[NZstorm]

The issue for Canterbury Tuesday is the general wind direction being NW tending WSW evening. Nothing onshore in the modelling for Tuesday atm. Flow tends SSW early Wed. Upper air sure will be very cold though. Looks like thunder risk stretches as far north as Wanganui to HB atm.

[spwill]

Looks like thunder risk stretches as far north as Wanganui to HB atm.

Those cold upper level temps alone suggest a strong thunder risk given the time of year.


Looks cold over the SouthIsland this morning.

[RWood]

Heavy squally showers passed throughthere 8.30-9.00, several hours early in terms of the 7am forecasts.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Nice morning here. Just 1.4mm last night but we missed the brunt of what could have produced a heavy period of rain with maybe over 10mm from that (went out to sea). The 2nd front is moving its way up just to the south now but well out to sea now. Its a bit of a pitty because very intense falls in this smallish band. Currently very still and 15.5 degrees

[gllitz]

Looks like M/S have gone for a moderate confidence for thunder-boomers tomorrow arvo/evening for quite a bit of the SI...

[Storm Struck]

Couldnt believe it woke up at 1am this morning to some rather intense bursts of rain on the roof, i was waiting for a clap of thunder.
4.6mm overnight from the trough i believe not the initial cold front that produced the very strong wind change.
Some punchy looking CU about this morning too, even some developing overhead.
There is alot of firing power in those cells tomorrow with some rather strong gale force gusts in those squalls.
Cheers
Jason.

[Storm Struck]

Took a drive to the NW from here and out the back of Sefton where the clouds looked black and shafty.
Drove into some heavy rain there and also heard one silent rumble of thunder towards the foothills while stopped on the side road.
Still dry back here in Kaiapoi but it is spanning out towards the coast now.
Cheers
Jason.

[Lacertae]

It looks a bit "messy" for tomorrow ...
Hope I do not start my shift at 1pm !

[carrot]

Now a low risk for Christchurch for thunderstorms, with snow possible in the south down to 300 meters in some cells

[Storm Struck]

That is weird considering conditions are fully ripe for thunderstorms, i would like to know thier reasoning as to the change in thunderstorm risk i guess thats MS for ya though .
Maybe its the strong westerly beforehand which i dont think will affect any convective development, everything else matches up apart from low dew points.
But that sure is low level snow for early march brrr.
Either way its going to be a rough night across the whole south island by tomorrow night.
Cheers
Jason.

[tgsnoopy]

That is weird considering conditions are fully ripe for thunderstorms

They'll sit on the fence then change to high risk after the event starts if recent experience here is anything to go by

[mikestormchaser]

my eyes will be open and waiting with baited breath! my risk tomorrow will be a moderate risk.

[Lacertae]

Unfortunately I will be working all afternoon and evening tomorrow ... just when the storms are back I've asked for more hours, I can't believe it !
And I don't know why, but I'm sure the show will be great from the western shores of Lake Ellesmere where I intended to go ... with probably something like a waterspout, of course ...

[Ryan Thomas]

Unfortunately I will be working all afternoon and evening tomorrow ... just when the storms are back I've asked for more hours, I can't believe it !
And I don't know why, but I'm sure the show will be great from the western shores of Lake Ellesmere where I intended to go ... with probably something like a waterspout, of course ...

I work 2:30pm-1am 4 days a week, soon to be 2:30pm-11 5 day week.. I missed out on the last great thunderstorm that caused flooding in my area that I'll never see again here, and I'm probably going to miss out on a another storm . Take videos and photographs so I can see what I missed out on.. Knowing my luck I'll land a night shift job in Brisbane and miss out on their storms

Any chance of a storm on Weds / Thurs?

[melja]

BRRRR down to 4.2 here this morning.

Just read a news article about the cold weather on the way and M/S said it would get down to a very cold 6deg in Q-town but the silly thing is we all ready have a much colder temp here in rangiora.

Im picking much colder temps than that being forcasted, i think they are a little under done.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Down to 9 here overnight so quite a variety by the sounds of things. It seems this low has moved a little further east of New Zealand thanks to the high in the Tasman strengthening overnight. No sign of the remains of Hamish show up on the maps anymore either. Im not so sure we will get much here in Christchurch now due to the low just clipping very briefly tonight. Tomorrow looks to be the day with the greater chance of rain. Having said that though there is a good rain band developing in the deep south intensifying in the last hour. The other good news at the moment is the wind is from the ENE currently. This will prob change ahead of the cold blast but we will just have to wait and see.

The latest thunderstorm outlook shows no risk of thunder at all now for Christchurch. Just the north canterbury ranges.

[gllitz]

Down to 9 here overnight so quite a variety by the sounds of things. It seems this low has moved a little further east of New Zealand thanks to the high in the Tasman strengthening overnight. No sign of the remains of Hamish show up on the maps anymore either. Im not so sure we will get much here in Christchurch now due to the low just clipping very briefly tonight. Tomorrow looks to be the day with the greater chance of rain. Having said that though there is a good rain band developing in the deep south intensifying in the last hour. The other good news at the moment is the wind is from the ENE currently. This will prob change ahead of the cold blast but we will just have to wait and see.

The latest thunderstorm outlook shows no risk of thunder at all now for Christchurch. Just the north canterbury ranges.

Not sure what page you're reading from Mark...the M/S just released at 8:54 a.m. their T/S outlook for today until midnight tonight and it shows a moderate risk for the arvo and evening here...need to refresh you browser, maybe?

EDIT: I personally don't like our chances, as someone has pointed out the westerly winds will probably push everything out to sea before it gets this far north...but, we'll see...