Showery and unstable, mid-March, any and all parts of NZ

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Fri 13/03/2009 20:19

Looking at the GFS Models, The 18th looks really good for t/storms for Auckland area.
19th Looks good for Waikato and down south of the NI.
Hopefully for Aucklanders sake will get a t/storm.
It's a long shot with the models but it looks good anyway.
Cross your fingers Aucklanders.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 14/03/2009 12:58

yes Tim, looking like some unstable air coming thru mid to late week due to moist low level air destabilising a trough. Maybe an embedded scenario though, instability within a rain area. The South Island could be more interesting with a sharp upper trough crossing Thursday or Friday. Could be worth a new thread in a day or two.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sat 14/03/2009 13:04

beauty looking pics up there NZstorm NS spwill does look like a supercell thunderstorm!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 14/03/2009 19:21

Looks like an interesting trough later next week. Looking forward to the warmer weather, cool today, overcaste, some light showers.

Looks like High preasure south of NZ later next week and a slow moving low east of the SI, ingredients there for a cold damp South/SE flow.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 15/03/2009 10:04

Starting to look a bit ridgy this week in the north for a CAPEable thunderstorm environment. Aucklands forecast sounding for Wednesday doesn't look good with a large inversion between 650-750mb. The effects of upper level ridging. By thurday the surface trough axis is thru with the moisture going east. South Island still has a chance thursady based of 12Zgfs with some colder upper level air moving thru. But we are getting to the time of year now where the sea breeze convergence is getting weak.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 16/03/2009 19:48

Was it me or was there a teny tiny bit of sea breeze convergence in auckland this afternoon around 5pm?

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 16/03/2009 19:57

I checked the Auckland airport metar and no sign of the SW sea breeze there today. But the lower atmos was unstable hence those cumulus. Should see larger cumulus by Wednesday as the air moistens up with isolated heavy afternoon/evening showers.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 16/03/2009 20:06

we do have a very slight sea breeze here in the last hour

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 17/03/2009 11:19

The fine weather continues here, currently 22C, dp 14C, calm.
A few small towering Cu around again today, Radar shows a few heavy showers in the Bay of Plenty.

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Tue 17/03/2009 11:28

yes, nice punchy Cu. 1am sounding shows a degree of CAPE under 760mb, but a large and persistant cap from there upwards. 1pm sounding will be interesting.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 17/03/2009 12:27

That stable layer above 750mb is forecast to remain in place today and tomorrow. But with the more moist air coming in we should see an increase in low level CAPE under that stable layer. T/cu tops to 4000m look possible by tomorrow hence my comment for the possibility of a heavy shower by tomorrow.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Tue 17/03/2009 12:51

Doesnt look as good anymore for today:

Too warm upper level temps.
Tomorrow looks better

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 17/03/2009 13:08

There has been a narrow but very slow moving shower line running onto the BOP coast this morning, some locations around Tauranga must have had quite a bit of rain this morning.

Fine warm weather here, Greylynn showing 24C dp 15C.

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Tue 17/03/2009 14:12

Yes, it's been raining all day. Getting heavier too!

Luckily not enough to be problematic so far at least.

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Tue 17/03/2009 18:00

Man it is friggen hosing down here! Place is starting to flood

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 17/03/2009 18:21

Beautiful day here, nearly reached 25Â°C too - and to think I was wondering whether or not to take my umbrella into uni this morning when looking at the forecast...glad I didn't!

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Tue 17/03/2009 18:55

Phew, thank heavens that's over with.

Fire got a fair few calls to flooding.

Blue sky appearing now and it's now lighter outside than it has been all day.

It certainly was persistant slow moving localised rain, I didn't see that coming.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 17/03/2009 19:30

According to Jim Hickey over 50mm fell in Tuaranga today. Not sure exactly where that reading was.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 17/03/2009 19:49

54mm for the day, 18.6mm in one hour, the heavy falls would have been very local.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Tue 17/03/2009 22:19

I might be wrong but, wasn't it Whakatane that got the 54mm, and Tauranga that got the 18.6mm in one hour?

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Wed 18/03/2009 07:04

Wow this a ideal day.... All CAPE is centralized around the North of NI all the way to waikato.
LI of 0 cape around 500-800j/kg. There is a slight cap but that can be broken very easily.
Just as a reference: Met service does not think a thunderstorm will occur today as of 7 AM on the 18th.
DPs will have to hold for this pan out.. cross your fingers because this effects Aucky, Northland, and Waikato.
Storm chasing potential today! $\:D/$

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 18/03/2009 07:40

The stable area mentioned yesterday certainly looks weaker today so isolated thunderstorms do look possible if we can get some convergence. The moisture could be a bit iffy today as its quite shallow and will mix out a bit with heating. But we'll see. Heavy shower or two certainly on the cards.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 18/03/2009 09:34

Today must be nearly worth a thread of its own?? i sure like the looks of it. Im heading down to Hamilton for a dinner and leaving at 3pm so hopefully i catch a developing storm on my drive down. Might even take a bit of a detour to follow one if there are any.

David · Unread post by **David** » Wed 18/03/2009 09:46

I see Tauranga aero had 71mm of rain to 9am yesterday. Further heavy showers up until now in the area means maybe 100mm could have fallen just from local showers!!

I also looked at the Environment BOP rainfall data and one site reported 185mm total with a fall of 60mm in one hour, but I don't think this is a reasonable reading.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 18/03/2009 10:06

I might be wrong but, wasn't it Whakatane that got the 54mm, and Tauranga that got the 18.6mm in one hour?

I think the heavy rainfall was just in the Tauranga area, a narrow showerline was almost stationary there.

Humid here today, dewpoints around 18C.

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