Showery and unstable, mid-March, any and all parts of NZ

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Wed 18/03/2009 13:28

big towering Cu's going up over west auckland

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 18/03/2009 14:32

i just watched a punchy Cu try to break the cap. It failed on its first go but about 20mins later it smashed through it then just took off. The thing just exploded. Awesome stuff to watch... I have the feeling there will be something good today.

Paul Mallinson · Unread post by **Paul Mallinson** » Wed 18/03/2009 14:48

j--me--h wrote:i just watched a punchy Cu try to break the cap. It failed on its first go but about 20mins later it smashed through it then just took off. The thing just exploded. Awesome stuff to watch... I have the feeling there will be something good today.

Very useful report. Thanks j--me--h.

Paul

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Wed 18/03/2009 15:12

Yes Jamie, A very nice CB Calvus is developing to my NW...

Most convection is occurring to the north..
Seems Auckland is getting the action today...
Will post a photo....

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 18/03/2009 15:25

Weak onvergence line over West Auckland has pushed slowly east, Cumulus going up and down along it.
Photo, Line near my house now.

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Wed 18/03/2009 16:53

Hmmm i'm not convinced to be honest. I certainly dont think anything will happen for west auckland. Anything that has developed has followed the usual convergence pattern of being pushed to the east, so some showers may develop over Hunua maybe???

A convergence line has formed this afternoon but it seems to be struggling and i dont like the look of the clouds, not gutsy enough if you know what i mean.

Anyway, hopefully i'm wrong

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Wed 18/03/2009 17:41

Nothing to rave about in the BOP/Waikato sadly.

I can however beleive the local rainfall readings in the last 48 hours. It hosed down at times.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Wed 18/03/2009 18:05

What a shame, must have been due to the northerly winds shifting out the colder air.....
Man it got warm here... who else got the warmer temps with the high Dp's?

David · Unread post by **David** » Wed 18/03/2009 18:09

Tornado Tim wrote:What a shame, must have been due to the northerly winds shifting out the colder air.....
Man it got warm here... who else got the warmer temps with the high Dp's?

Yeah a warm humid day here too 25.2Â°C max and DP's around 19Â°C at times. Been really nice weather the last 2 days

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 18/03/2009 18:20

A little bit of summer for Auckland today. Isolated afternoon/ Evening showers over Northland and Waikato.

Dale · Unread post by **Dale** » Wed 18/03/2009 19:13

Only thing in the sky of interest right now is in the SE direction from home. Another has punched its way through on the flank at time of typing.

This, from my back deck. Bombay is at the far left of photo.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 18/03/2009 19:26

but I thought it was a black abyess beyond the bombay hills?

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Wed 18/03/2009 19:34

Very interesting here is another angle of it...

Manukau heads obs · Wed 18/03/2009 20:01

that shower shows up on the rain radar alright

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 18/03/2009 22:40

strange old day today. Auckland was actually looking far better than down Hamilton way at 3pm. Something very much missing today. But at around 6pm there was a shower to the E of my parents place which looked very nice. But other than that not alot to report.

Philip Duncan · Unread post by **Philip Duncan** » Wed 18/03/2009 22:42

Always felt it was too dry today... our forecast for Auckland pretty much said a dry day with only a slight risk of a shower, which we eventually dropped! Yesterday we said it'd be dry too. Just didn;t have that feeling that we'd get anything big, ya know?

Paul Mallinson · Unread post by **Paul Mallinson** » Thu 19/03/2009 07:00

philip duncan wrote:Always felt it was too dry today... our forecast for Auckland pretty much said a dry day with only a slight risk of a shower, which we eventually dropped! Yesterday we said it'd be dry too. Just didn;t have that feeling that we'd get anything big, ya know?

To achieve any measure of success over time, forecasts have to based on more than 'by gosh and by golly'!

Paul

Manukau heads obs · Thu 19/03/2009 07:34

the day did start out foggy here....so you cant get any more moisture than that ,under that weather pattern (light winds and clear at night)
there was some good build ups

what was missing was the NE /E wind was not strong enough.....not enough convergence forcing, when the weak sea breeze arrived
me thinks

Dale · Unread post by **Dale** » Thu 19/03/2009 07:38

Rather nice squall line type thingy moving in, looks impressive lit up by the rising sun (not to mention black as the ace of spades)

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Thu 19/03/2009 07:52

"Its raining cats and dogs here" A bit of change compared to the last 5 days.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 19/03/2009 08:02

approaching 5mm here now already!

Paul Mallinson · Unread post by **Paul Mallinson** » Thu 19/03/2009 08:04

Manukau heads observer wrote:the day did start out foggy here....so you cant get any more moisture than that ,under that weather pattern (light winds and clear at night)
there was some good build ups

what was missing was the NE /E wind was not strong enough.....not enough convergence forcing, when the weak sea breeze arrived
me thinks

Yes Brian, I think you are right about the strength of the convergence.
It is rather weak now at this time of year. To get a good convergence you need land temperatures significantly higher than sea surface temperatures, but at this time of year with the weaker heating from the sun (after all it is equivalent to early October), the sea temperatures are pretty warm and the resulting temperature difference is much less and so hence the sea breeze convergence is weaker. The forecasting challenge is to decide if they will be strong enough to pop the convection. The main threat areas yesterday were signalled to be over Northland and down through Waikato, but dew points over Waikato mixed down to lower values than expected.

Paul

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 19/03/2009 08:15

Yes, the moisture yesterday was a bit shallow and mixing out was an issue.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 19/03/2009 08:49

We had 1 flash of lightning thats it (i happened to look at the sky then as the change is arriving)now the SW is here with light rain. 16Â°.

Philip Duncan · Unread post by **Philip Duncan** » Thu 19/03/2009 08:54

To be fair Paul you were bang on with the heavy showers around the Bombays, western Hauraki Plains and western Kaimai Ranges. Some nice big afternoon showers formed around there.

NZ Weather Forum

Showery and unstable, mid-March, any and all parts of NZ

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI

Re: Showery and unstable, mid-March, NI