Deep Subtropical Low (2nd twin) - affecting ANZAC/Weekend

[Nev]

Just looking at the Kerikeri WS - 16.4mm fell mostly between about 3pm and 11pm yesterday and another 30mm so far in the last 2.5 hours.

[iomkiwi]

A little bit more than drizzle up here, about 30mm since 6 am and more to come going by the fact I can't get satellite reception at present!

[Nev]

Snap! That's some heavy rain iomkiwi - should pass over shortly...

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

9am radar shows no movement of that small but intense band of rain over Kerikeri. Infact it has grown in size and intensity over the past hour if anything. Could be interesting it it stays stationery over the area for another couple of hours. Keep us posted up there!

[spwill]

9am radar shows no movement of that small but intense band of rain over Kerikeri.

Yes, could be some big local falls under that area of development.
I see Kerikeri has had 38mm in the past 3-4 hours

[DT-NZ]

9am radar shows no movement of that small but intense band of rain over Kerikeri. Infact it has grown in size and intensity over the past hour if anything. Could be interesting it it stays stationery over the area for another couple of hours. Keep us posted up there!

Goodmorning MarkThomas,

We've had steady persistent rain here in the DB (doubtless bay ) area since 09.00hrs, with heavier falls of rain intermingled in that. I hope though it does not stay stationary - high tide this morning Mangonui 08:38hrs, will keep you posted, take care.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

9am radar shows no movement of that small but intense band of rain over Kerikeri. Infact it has grown in size and intensity over the past hour if anything. Could be interesting it it stays stationery over the area for another couple of hours. Keep us posted up there!

Goodmorning MarkThomas,

We've had steady persistent rain here in the DB (doubtless bay ) area since 09.00hrs, with heavier falls of rain intermingled in that. I hope though it does not stay stationary - high tide this morning Mangonui 08:38hrs, will keep you posted, take care.

Thanks DTNZ. The 11am radar has just came through and once again there remains very little change. Still very stationery. I see Kerikeri is up to 57.7mm for today and could be a little more yet.

[Vertigo]

yep, looks like the flow lost its puff and moved east anyway.. kaitaia still getting a dousing tho.

interestingly, and as i suspected, the front from australia has interacted with the low and distrupted it.

[Storm Struck]

A reasonably quiet April might be about to change in the next 6 days , 3 different low systems busy skies ahead indeed.
I quite like how the New Caledonia low comes down hits the west coast tonight and then influences another low in the southern ocean as it skips past Fiordland and pushes the high away.
Met Service have picked up on this very well in thier warnings 200-300mm for the west coast sounds about right for a 48-60 hour period if not more as there sure is going to be alot of rain on the coast.
Strong to gale N-NE tonight east of the Alps and again Monday except more NW by then.
Mid week brings a third low which looks to cross the central south island at this stage firing up a very cold airflow, so one to watch for low level snow and possible thunderstorms.
We will see what happens in the next 5-6 days, one thing many will enjoy is the return to warm temperatures.
High cloud is thickening here now with those scatterd spots of rain expected overnight, took some photo's of a halo before which looked rather cool.

Cheers
Jason.

[Tornado Tim]

A Medium-low risk of thunderstorms tomorrow.
GFS is suggesting that some unstable air air will be around North Waikato, Auckland and some bits north from there.
DP's look good but this very much depends if some daytime surface heating gets the thing initialized.
But this warm front has heaps of clouds with it it is less likely that the DTSH will occur.
So looks like Weather Enthusiasts in the Aucky area will have to check if any convection starts going.
Latest GFS Run: CAPE and LI

[Manukau heads obs]

can see bits of blue skies here first thing this morning...so might get a big of day time heating
DP has come up here now, nearly 15C
still a few weak shower lines around on the rain radar

[Dale]

For the first time since this flop.. finally getting some decent rain (if you will call it that) here in the franklin. Yesterday was just blow your umbrella inside out wx, last night around 2200 got really hairy with some quite severe gusts I would be at my best guesstimate, pushing into the 70km/h range.

[Nev]

Yes, just 2.8mm of varying degrees of drizzle since early yesterday morn here. Some brief 'blue bits' early this morn preceded 9mm from this latest rainband.

[Manukau heads obs]

would be at my best guesstimate, pushing into the 70km/h range

I would not call 70kmh a severe gust
120kmh I would!

most inland places were getting gusts to 30kts (55kmh)
I would be surprised if you got to 70kmh Dale

[David]

6mm rain here since 9am from light rain at times with a few brief moderate showers. Last 2 nights here have had lows of 17.2°C - big contrast to that 3.2°C night about 2 weeks ago!

[Dale]

Ta Brian. I dont have anemometers up on the hill here at this stage, hence being a guesstimate. But you when you see a 100 year old pine bent over almost to breaking point those sorts of winds are not mucking about. Also found a couple of pieces of roofing iron just now, from the sheds a few paddocks over.

I would put some washing on the line to give you a better estimate, but every time I tried to yesterday, it got blown off and landed over in the neighbours backyard

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Very warm day here for April in CHCH. Currently 25 degrees with a strengthening NNE kickin in over the past half hour. However, high cloud has decreased so the mercury hasnt dropped off with the pick up in wind. If the winds change to the NW we could see maybe 26 or 27 degrees which would be a great effort for what is effectively almost may!

[Manukau heads obs]

if you are on an exposed hill top then you will get stronger winds, by up to 10 knots more, so, 40 knots, and yes, in the 70kmh range

but for this area, the winds have not been anything out of the ordinary

[Dale]

Sorry, I re-read my post earlier & did not mean to sound condescending (from my point of view anyway). Where I am located pretty much look out over all of Paerata towards Pukekohe, Glenbrook, & Waiuku back around to Hunua Papakura & south again all the way to the Bombays & beyond, it is a very exposed area & only just hit me how much difference a bit of elevation makes compared to other stations in the immediate vicinity.

[Manukau heads obs]

Sounds like a good candiate for a weather station
then you will know what windspeeds you are getting

[Andrew Massie]

I see MS have a 'weak tornados possible' risk for the west coast... Quite gusty Northerly wind here now.. Temp has jumped 8 degrees in 4 hours.

Was too windy down the beach for my daughter's kite!

[Dale]

Sounds like a good candiate for a weather station
then you will know what windspeeds you are getting

Yes, my gear is on "backload" from Christchurch & should be here either the end of this week or early next. Had some customs issues when it was all being shipped from Brisbane.

[Tornado Tim]

Someone should make up another thread about this low that is going to hit the SI, If you have a look at the Australian site Weatherzone, the storm tracker is picking up on large amounts of lightning strikes in the band of cloud coming towards the SI.
West Coast Residents in the SI, get prepared!

[Vertigo]

those fronts are looking nice and active!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, I was thinking about starting up a new thread as it looks as though 12983 lightning strikes will affect the West coast in the next 24 hours, but I haven't got around to it.
Maybe someone else could take up introducing the thread?

JohnGaul
NZThS