Deep Subtropical Low (2nd twin) - affecting ANZAC/Weekend

[David]

Check out the latest metservice severe outlook page, they are still holding strong onto the weekend low scenario, hope they are right despite the model disagreement

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

The last 6 or 7 runs have consistantly shown the low passing to the West of the North Island thanks to a high to the east of New Zealand. I dont see how metservice can have moderate confidence when the chances are low, if zilch! The high to the east has been strong for the last 3 or 4 days in the forecast and 1023 is forecast over Canterbury at lunchtime today and right now its 1026 already, so the high has strengthened even more than the charts show. Its a pitty really, there is also another subtropical low to the Northeast of New Zealand too that is very intense but it doesnt come near New Zealand that one. Probably just a windy couple of days in the north with no rain, the odd shower im guessing.

[Manukau heads obs]

but the low does not have to be all that close
its the moist onshore NE flow that will bring rain to the far north, as the front from the low moves SE closer to the NI

this low to our NW almost looks like a TC with its intense circulation a "cold TC",LOL

[spwill]

I dont see how metservice can have moderate confidence when the chances are low, if zilch!

A Slow moving Front in a moist flow, perhaps the High will keep the heavier rain out, time will tell.

[Dale]

Hybrid low, not pure cold cored nor TC although sustained wind speeds point that way. It's one to watch though, already interacting with an upper trough, give it an extra kick and anythings possible.

[Manukau heads obs]

I think because it has a strong upper low above it as well ?(Ricky pointed that out to me)

[Nev]

Yes, it's possible there may have been some weak core warming around 850 to 500hpa during its return to the subtropics yesterday. Weird

[DT-NZ]

there is also another subtropical low to the Northeast of New Zealand too that is very intense but it doesnt come near New Zealand that one. Probably just a windy couple of days in the north with no rain, the odd shower im guessing.

Had strong winds howl through on and off today here in this part of the country, squally rain nothing much to exciting.

Right now though its really cold, the wind has quietened down again, no significant heavy rain yet.

Take care.

[DT-NZ]

just a windy couple of days in the north with no rain, the odd shower im guessing.

I just remembered

I sure hope your odd shower's will happen, I can handle odd showers, but days of rain... expecially heavy rain (BLUK) I'm just not looking foward to the ANZAC weekend at all... not one bit.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Right now though its really cold, the wind has quietened down again, no significant heavy rain yet.

Latest runs have shown that the outskirts of the low will affect Northland with a spell of heavy rain but should be relatively short lived. The reason there isnt any heavy rain yet is because it is not expected until tomorrow afternoon. I think the most interesting thing to watch is the west coast of the south. It looks as if they are in for a right soaking with days of heavy rain. Maybe some low level snow in the east on the back of the system later next week!

[Vertigo]

that really is a nice looking low at this stage, i really hope it keeps its intensity as it makes its way towards auckland. check out the lightning acticity in its western half this morning!

[NZstorm]

Yes, a very unstable warm sector. Certainly top of Northland will get thunderstorms later today.

[DT-NZ]

that really is a nice looking low at this stage, i really hope it keeps its intensity as it makes its way towards auckland. check out the lightning acticity in its western half this morning!

Morning Vertigo

Nice satellite image, it could be me but that area to the left of the blue looks just like an eye forming (albeit weak)

I'm looking west out over the horizon right now - no visible distant light flashes in the early morning sky yet. take care.

[DT-NZ]

Right now though its really cold, the wind has quietened down again, no significant heavy rain yet.

Latest runs have shown that the outskirts of the low will affect Northland with a spell of heavy rain but should be relatively short lived. The reason there isnt any heavy rain yet is because it is not expected until tomorrow afternoon. I think the most interesting thing to watch is the west coast of the south. It looks as if they are in for a right soaking with days of heavy rain. Maybe some low level snow in the east on the back of the system later next week!

Goodmorning MarkThomas,

Thanks for that rain short lived albeit heavy GREAT I can handle that, not days of it though... not days of it... anyway, take care.

[DT-NZ]

Yes, a very unstable warm sector. Certainly top of Northland will get thunderstorms later today.

Great I'll let you know when I hear the sound of those boons coming in... the thing is they build up... and build up... well, a grey and rather bleak day out ... a nor easter with strong gusts and an ocassional heavy spit of rain now and again.. high tide mangonui 07:51hrs, seas moderate.

[Nev]

Yes, quite a remarkable hybrid depression this one. Not to mention that it's been hanging around the Tasman for about 10 days now.

Mean winds at Cape Reinga this morn have remained up around 93 km/h (Storm-force), as have Gale-force winds from the outer Hauraki Gulf northwards - only about 2/3 that speed in Akld's Waitemata Harbour though. MetService's Severe Weather Warnings also remain largely unchanged this morn...

MetService - SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 8:14 am 24-Apr-2009

HEAVY RAIN WARNING AREA/S AFFECTED: NORTHLAND. In the 15 to 18 hours starting about 2pm Friday north of the Bay of Islands and starting about 8pm Friday further south, 60 to 80mm of rain is expected in many places. However, there could be 90 to 120mm in parts of the the hill country north of Whangarei, peaking at 20 to 30mm per hour on Friday night in a few embedded thunderstorms from about Bay of Islands northwards. Following this rain, bands of showers are expected until Sunday afternoon but would probably only amount to 15 to 25mm.

Btw, that's not an 'eye'. Subtropical and mid-latitude lows (even hybrids) don't develop 'eyes', and you'd only expect to see one in a TC greater than Cat 2. The term 'making landfall' (bandied about by the media) is also never used when referring to these lows, mainly because their strongest winds are normally found around the low's outer peripheries (unlike TC's).

[DT-NZ]

Mean winds at Cape Reinga this morn have remained up around 93 km/h (Storm-force)

Hi Nev

The winds have intensified here in DB region since my earlier post bringing with it strong gusts that come in with a sudden punch (best way I can describe it ).

Btw, that's not an 'eye'. Subtropical and mid-latitude lows (even hybrids) don't develop 'eyes', and you'd only expect to see one in a TC greater than Cat 2. The term 'making landfall' (bandied about by the media) is also never used when referring to these lows, mainly because their strongest winds are normally found around the low's outer peripheries (unlike TC's).

This is what I love and appreciate about this place and it is the wisdom and knowledge that come from great people (like you) who teach the newbies to learn (like me, thank you) those things weather related.

I have shared what you wrote with my children this monring and my son was just full of questions, we all learn together...

Anyway... i am waiting to hear those approaching thunder boons, for now nothing interesting or eventful to report take care.

[spwill]

Good to have your reports from the far North DT-NZ. Showery rain is onto the top of Doubtless Bay now.

Cloudy 18C here, fresh NE.

[DT-NZ]

Good to have your reports from the far North DT-NZ. Showery rain is onto the top of Doubtless Bay now.

Cloudy 18C here, fresh NE.

Hi spwill and yes the showery rains have started though on and off, no steady rain yet... anyway, it could have been my imagination but, I thought I heard thunder out in the far distance... rumbling... take care.

[Tornado Tim]

Can see dark clouds up north, Whats happening in Aucky?

[spwill]

Whats happening in Aucky?

Cloudy, dry and mild here, 18C.

More persistent rain now north of the Bay of Islands, plenty of rain out to the NE of Northland and more thundery Cb clouds forming out to the NW of Northland

[Manukau heads obs]

looks like alot of rain coming down to me...
and yet the met service rain model does not show that, it shows the main rain band retreating....

[Vertigo]

yes brian, a very moist northerly being dragged down onto us now, with cloud tops approaching -65C! wouldnt be suprised to see a lot of intense rain out of this system overnight and into tomorrow morning. i see heavy rain hitting the kaitaia area already.

[spwill]

A warm ANZAC morning here, 18C with a couple of very light showers, fresh NE which was strong at times overnight.
Weakening Rain cloud south of Whangarei.

[Manukau heads obs]

yeah, just some drizzle..the high is too strong!