NZ Weather Forum

A beautiful day in Auckland today, clear skies, light winds, 18C.

saw some decent convection building south of auckland earlier today..

Ment to get down to -3C here tonight, so far outside its a cool 4.8C.

Shes gana be a chilly one when I head to work.

4C outside at the moment, clear blue skies, what a day!

Looks like we are in for a rough unsettled week after about Mon, and quite a deep low over the country by Sat. Some instability modeled too, should be interesting.

Some cold upper air looks to scoot across the country about Wednesday with a low. Forecast 500mb temps -25C for Auckland. Should see a bit of thundery/squally activity Wednesday.

Long range looks like a very impressive low pressure system over Tasman Sea/NZ weekend into early next week.

nice and cold this morning with a lot of - numbers around.

looking like a rough week for sure. this low pressure system looks very impresive the way it sits on us the entire week and gets bigger and deepens. Just have to hope the models stay true.

going to be a bit of a wake up call to winter alright
could cause problems around the country this weather system I would say!

Sunny 16C here after a cold start 6C, looks like we will have unstable skies around Auckland from Wendsday into early next week.

What a cracker day after a frosty start this morning, really felt the cold being the first bite of the coming winter season.
Better make the most of the calm sunny weather today, as the rest of the week isnt going to be that flash.
Even tomorrow's front which moves up the country is slightly on the cold side, especially when the MS suggest hail in the thunderstorms for the West Coast.
Cheers
Jason.

Widespread amounts of unstable air are possible around the NI for the 6th according to the GFS.
Hopefully the sky wont be overcast so some DTSH can spark something off.
Seems rather cool as of late, only a max of 17.7°C even though it doesn't feel it.

Interesting CAPE chart there Tim. While daytime heating at this time of year can still be useful for enhancing convection we are now looking for frontal boundaries to trigger the cb's for us. The ole daytime heating/sea breeze convergence thing is more or less finished now until next October. Look for fast moving fronts within polar maritime airmass, some moisture in advance and good wind shear. Wednesday 00Z is looking very encouraging with surface dps of 11C under a very cold airmass (500mb -25C). Good speed shear with 850mb wind 38kts, 500mb 58kts. Just need a front within that environment and we have thunder.

Also Cb cloud forms in cold upper air over warm sea, looks like some very cold upper air will move across the Tasman onto the NI friday.

Thanks for the info Steven. I hope we can get some night time thunder going on, I have hardly heard any a night time. Hopefully the front some will feed some CBs that may blow up later on.

Also Cb cloud forms in cold upper air over warm sea,

Those wintry airmass type of thunderstorms tend to be junk, especially when they move onto land. To get the lightning active clouds there needs to be a front I reckon.

I am not sure if this instability over the northland in the GFS map is the front?
It looks like it....
Perhaps a chance a night time thunderstorms if it is....

Just after 5pm a photogenic cell passed through Henderson, dumping a short burst of heavy rain.

Thunderstorms have been reported in Wellington.
Today is going to be very interesting.
Hopefully thunderstorms don't initiate while I have a lecture.
Update: Nice CB to the North West of Me.
Here is a pic.

Looks cold and unstable out there this morning. gfs has the lifted index down to -2.4 for Auckland and a very unstable -3.9 for New Plymouth. They are forecasts for 00Z today.

lots of cold topped Cb's making their way east currently. Needs surface heating to really get things going.

Mostly dry here, 17C. Some Cb cloud about, photo.
Sat pic shows the active Cb cloud is south of Waikato. Edit Thunderstorms into the Waikato now.

Yes Spwill, But it seems to be a 1 clap wonder..

NZstorm wrote:Looks cold and unstable out there this morning. gfs has the lifted index down to -2.4 for Auckland and a very unstable -3.9 for New Plymouth. They are forecasts for 00Z today.

You'd never think it was this unstable judging by the weather (or lack of) today! Another fizzer...perhaps Friday will end the t-storm drought

Thundery cells stayed south of the Bombay Hills. I drove down to Bombay mid afternoon, had one thunderclap and small hail from this Cb which moved east into the Bay of Plenty late afternoon.

I like that first photo