Major Low Pressure system - 8th to 12th May

[Razor]

Looks like a S-SE flow with only a few showers in the fiordland region. Routeburn is often at its finest in such conditions

[Tornado Tim]

It looks awesome on the SAT image, clouds feeding into it.
It is about time we get some more interesting weather.

[spwill]

only a few showers in the fiordland region.

Snow lying, a gale force southerly on exposed parts of the Routeburn track with atleast snow flurries, good luck.

[waterboy]

Ummmm there is potential for you to get hammered

I get hammered every night already!

I look on metvue and there forecast maps show only lighter stuff for my area but some quite heavy looking weather for up north. If they are wrong then may be we will get some heavy weather down here to but it is looking like a northern event to me.
Still we can't complain about the amount of rain we got! The lakes are fuller than they have been for years and specially so for this time of year. I was operating at Benmore while we were spilling more a 1000 cumecs and it was bloody spectacular.

[Razor]

be just like last year then...usually is snow of the track this time of year

[southernthrash]

Ummmm there is potential for you to get hammered

I get hammered every night already!

I look on metvue and there forecast maps show only lighter stuff for my area but some quite heavy looking weather for up north. If they are wrong then may be we will get some heavy weather down here to but it is looking like a northern event to me.
Still we can't complain about the amount of rain we got! The lakes are fuller than they have been for years and specially so for this time of year. I was operating at Benmore while we were spilling more a 1000 cumecs and it was bloody spectacular.

I wouldn't rely on metvuw, great resource no doubt, but shop around.

[spwill]

be just like last year then...usually is snow of the track this time of year

Usually bugger all snow if any.

[Razor]

be just like last year then...usually is snow of the track this time of year

Usually bugger all snow if any.

I've been on that track most may's, for around 15 years and most mays there is a resonable dusting of snow. Not enough to be bad news, just enough to make it photogenic

[waterboy]

I wouldn't rely on metvuw, great resource no doubt, but shop around.

Hee hee! Shop around??? I'm not trying to buy the weather I want!!
The weather and climate guys at work say that we could get quite a bit of rain on Thursday but the most of this stuff will be up north.
Thats good to know and let them get the bloody white stuff for a change! I can certanly live with out it!

[Razor]

Looking at the overnight rain radars it looks like that low formed just off the coast of Rakaia.
Good rain.

This system looks like developing into a 7-10 day event!

[gllitz]

Check out what TonyT has said here:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/2 ... ales-in-SI

I love this quote:

"All bets are off. It is an 'anything goes' weather pattern"

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Latest GFS run showing good numbers again for Canterbury. Metservice forecast for Christchurch on Sunday is "Rain, Sleet at times" Rural forecast suggesting snow to 400m from Sunday through to Tuesday. Rain as eased to a few showers in the past hour. Some of the showers have been short but sharp (heavy). This system is now up to 36mm

Just had a very heavy downpoor laced with hail

[TonyT]

[waterboy]

Will south canty cop this? All the road snow warnings were removed over night and the guys who came up from manapouri this morning said there was none on the Lindis pass. There doesnt seem to be any over night on the mountains around Tekapo or south. The light showers last night looks like it thinned out the snow from last weeks.
The weather section at work is still saying heavy rain for the catchemnet Thursday is what we will see and that we won't get any thing except rain and the real heavy stuff will be north of here if it happens at all. Interesting this weather game!

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Will south canty cop this? All the road snow warnings were removed over night and the guys who came up from manapouri this morning said there was none on the Lindis pass. There doesnt seem to be any over night on the mountains around Tekapo or south. The light showers last night looks like it thinned out the snow from last weeks.
The weather section at work is still saying heavy rain for the catchemnet Thursday is what we will see and that we won't get any thing except rain and the real heavy stuff will be north of here if it happens at all. Interesting this weather game!

The snow warnings were for the "pre system of the low" if ya like. Dont read anything into those being lifted. The main system is due to start on Friday and go down hill from then then the coldest air looks like Sun to Tuesday. So thats when to keep ya eyes out.

[Storm Struck]

Well a reasonable amount of rain from this weaker low system so far which is almost on the clear, up to 21mm of rain since 8pm last night which got heavy around midnight-2am for awhile.
Heavy showers on and off today and a shower just before came down in a melted hail form, also known as a cheaters version to sleet .
Any idea why yesterdays posts were moved to the May Topic? i think that it is fair and sqaure that yesterdays and todays weather is related as a warm up to the big low system at the weekend.
By the way the posts are out of order who ever did it , i think we need to be abit more clearer on categorising topics more fairly.
Just as i thought latest models bring the numbers down again which is good, i did enjoy reading the article in the press this morning well worded Tony I was wondering when the media were going to jump in.
Cheers
Jason.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

numbers down? interms of rain totals do you mean?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Any idea why yesterdays posts were moved to the May Topic? i think that it is fair and sqaure that yesterdays and todays weather is related as a warm up to the big low system at the weekend.
By the way the posts are out of order who ever did it , i think we need to be abit more clearer on categorising topics more fairly.

Not guilty

32.7mm to 2:30pm today


JohnGaul
NZThS

[Tornado Tim]

The forecast seems to have all the lows dance around new zealand for the rest of this week and next week.

[TonyT]

Any idea why yesterdays posts were moved to the May Topic? i think that it is fair and sqaure that yesterdays and todays weather is related as a warm up to the big low system at the weekend.
By the way the posts are out of order who ever did it , i think we need to be abit more clearer on categorising topics more fairly.

Not guilty
JohnGaul
NZThS

Me either?

[windwatcher]

Just a question for anyone who wants to answer, why isnt metservice forcasting severe weather for places like KeriKeri and Kaikohe because when i look at the Met VUW it looks a whole lot worse than whats being forcasted? Just curious

[Michael]

I never been north of Pahia so how bad are the SWers there,but Cape Reianga seems to get them like Auckland guess youre on the lee side in Keri Keri.

Just a question for anyone who wants to answer, why isnt metservice forcasting severe weather for places like KeriKeri and Kaikohe because when i look at the Met VUW it looks a whole lot worse than whats being forcasted? Just curious

[windwatcher]

Thanks a lot This site is so awesome. The SWers arent as bad as up at the cape, we seem to be pretty sheltered where I live. The forest seems to have some part in it.

[Myself]

Remember that MetVuw is exclusively GFS. So the worst model of the lot. Always makes me chuckle when you see people commenting (on that site) that MetVuw is the only place that always gets it right. As if the GFS is always right. As if any computer generated forecast with no human input can always be right.

[windwatcher]

wow i didnt know that. So what they show isnt exact? That explains my confusion at what they showed compared to what metservice was forcasting, thanks for that. I was looking at the isobars and thinking how windy it was going to get but metservice hadnt got anything about that. You learn something new everyday