NZ Weather Forum

I know it's a week out but looking as though we could be in for our first decent blast of polar air from the south next weekend. Keep an eye on the models over the coming days. Im off down to Christchurch that weekend so will be a shock to the system after a mild Autumn in Auckland.

Already starting to fizzle on most recent model runs...

latest GFS has a vigourous early winter system from wedensday...very strong SW winds, etc, squally showers likely....cool, some weather action at last

I wouldnt say its a fizzer still along way out to call it but certainly looking like a polar blast alright, straight up from the ice caps and stretching the flow out into the Tasman so certainly not one of those coastal events.
See what the models do in the week ahead, definate squally thunderstorms and hail for the west of the South Island, Southland and Otago with the passage of the blast late Thursday and into Friday.
Cheers
Jason.

Lozza wrote:I know it's a week out but looking as though we could be in for our first decent blast of polar air from the south next weekend.

Third, we've had two already...

Numbers are up for the short but sharp southerly change on wednesday and Friday and into Saturday see's numbers up too (by numbers i mean rainfall totals predicted). Yes a long way out but something rather promising to look out for.

The latest ECMWF run looks quite 'depression-ing'' over NZ next WE or

JohnGaul
NZThS

Don't know hould cold it'll get, but probably not as wintry as this time last year - Chch being lashed by sleet and heavy snow on Port Hills early May.

Thanks for the warning you guys ---it will be interesting to see if we get a big one from this.
Some weeks ago we had snow down to around 600 metres on the ranges and I woke up and found more than 4 inches all over the ground here at Tekapo. Are we up for more now?

Wow, I'm impressed with the model runs and the size of the low pressure systems that are coming our way...still too far out, though.

Yes Glitz, something to keep an eye on for sure and the latest runs from M/S 7 day runs and the GFS both have big rainfall with low temps for Canterbury. I have attached the GFS run put out just an hour ago. Yes we are still 5 days off and chances are it will drop away but i notice weather watch have commented saying that even although the event is still a few days away they have moderate confidence of this occuring. If we were to go far too far ahead in time then the GFS suggests another 30mm on the backend of the graphy below as well. For now though we will just take it a day at a time.

Some big low systems coming up alright that model you show Mark still has rather high temperatures on the 500mb, really needs to be below 530mb for low level snow well thats one component i mean.
I do think as we get closer those numbers will drop abit more, but as we have learnt over the past with low systems other ingrediants can often bring the snow levels down.
It does look good and hopefully it keeps up, the models have been showing these lows since last Thursday so thats a bonus at this stage .
There could possibly be a thunder and hail scenerio for the East Coast of the South Island after dark on Thursday and into the early hours of Friday morning, perhaps a simular situation to the April storms in 2004.
It is a big call but one worth watching for, either way the skiers will be happy if the prolongued top up occurs.
Cheers
Jason.

Just looks like a run of the mill (ie boring) winter system chiefly affecting Auckland and western areas and few showers elsewhere according to ecmwf.

MMM yeah i just took wee look at that model run Mark, i dont really read modes but the 500mb temp is at its lowest on sat 9th may and even that is still bit to high really.
Things could change though.. we all know what it likes to do here in Canterbury " good or bad" for us enthueists.
But of course we want it good!

I think there is potential for things to get rather interesting, up high at least.

Perhaps several days of easterly rain for the SouthIsland so the likes of Mt Hutt Skii field could get a snow dump.

Please keep all mucky weather away from the Routeburn Track on Saturday Morning.
I am in the race
http://www.odt.co.nz/sport/athletics/53 ... enge-track

This system looks really nasty i may be a weather enthusiast but im not looking forward to this one haha

Razor wrote:Please keep all mucky weather away from the Routeburn Track on Saturday Morning.
I am in the race
http://www.odt.co.nz/sport/athletics/53 ... enge-track

You are gonna have a great time!

Please keep all mucky weather away from the Routeburn Track on Saturday Morning.
I am in the race

I dont think this race will be on.

You would be lucky to get a lull in this weekends weather system, as this is not just any ordinary low with rain like todays one.
So i would think at this stage the Routeburn track would be a certain no go.
Models continue to show its going to be very rough this weekend , no let up into early next week either.
Cheers
Jason.

Is this really going to amount to any thing but? Some guys at work say this is not going to have much impact on us down this way. So this will be an upper south isalnd and a north island happening only?

Ummmm there is potential for you to get hammered

gllitz wrote:Already starting to fizzle on most recent model runs...

Must have unfizzled itself now.

Looking like the East Coast is going to be in for a real pounding over the weekend. I think we'll see some some huge swells as well with the Metservice 7 day chart showing the low down to 954hpa at 12pm Saturday off the coast. Not looking as cold as I originally thought it could be but defintiely shaping up for an interesting weekend of weather watching. Looking foward to some heavy turbulence on the plane down to Chch on Friday night! This system gets more interesting to watch as the days go by!

Lozza wrote:

gllitz wrote:Already starting to fizzle on most recent model runs...

Must have unfizzled itself now.

Looking like the East Coast is going to be in for a real pounding over the weekend. I think we'll see some some huge swells as well with the Metservice 7 day chart showing the low down to 954hpa at 12pm Saturday off the coast. Not looking as cold as I originally thought it could be but defintiely shaping up for an interesting weekend of weather watching. Looking foward to some heavy turbulence on the plane down to Chch on Friday night! This system gets more interesting to watch as the days go by!

Shouldn't have opened my big fat mouth!

Yeah, I have to admit, the fact that the models have been so consistent over the past few days is kinda worrying...it looks as though the WHOLE of NZ will be affected by it...I mean, it's a sad state of affairs when you look on a weather map for all of NZ and the ONLY thing of note is a giant low pressure system....

I can't seem to remember when anything like this happened in the past 9 years? Anyone?

Anyway...we'll see...will be interesting to watch and see how the media hypes it up, if at all.....