Multiple Lows & several very cold outbreaks 15th -24th May

[waterboy]

Has any one ever sat down and worked out the stats for acurracy of the amature sites like this and weather watch and the weather zone compared to the proffesionals like the Met serice and Niwa? There was a snow fall back in 2006 that no one predicted as far as I no. It wasn't a big snow just a few inches in most places but it covered a really huge area. I have been told that ever since that one the weather services have said 'snows coming!!!'every time some cloud appears from the south now. And also because people like exitement and the web sites with the ads on it make loads more cash when they say stuff like storms and snow is coming because more people visit the sites.

[TonyT]

There was a snow fall back in 2006 that no one predicted as far as I no.

Um, I did.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

What on earth is going on? The metservice have got rid of their weather warnings for Canterbury northwards.....must be a site problem.

[waterboy]

ha ha ok sorry I meant that no one predicted how wide it would be and how much fell. All the weather sites said some snow would fall and that it would be mainly on the ranges and only a small amount. Every one down here was surprised because we were expecting only an inch or to maybe but there was something like six inches and up to a foot in some places like Cook and in parts of the village here. No one predicted that and no one was expecting it to cover such a big area like from central up to passed Chch.

Back then the weather guys were heavly critisised for missing it. It makes sense that they panic now when they see cloud on a sat photo specially when the others are screaming snow to! Its like feedback it just builds up fast as one site trys to out scream the others!!! Plus they want those web link clicks so they get ad money. $$$$$$

What I think would be interesting is to compare amature forcasts with the ones from the pros ( Niwa and Met service) to see who gets it right more.
Oh looks like the Met srvice have down graded there warnings?

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Weather warnings back up again now.

[TonyT]

Well, its easy to pick one event and generalise from it to criticise, but since 2006 (not to mention before) there have been many snow events which have been accurately forecast, many more than those which havent. Take this last event for example, I think the predictions (well certainly our predictions) have been spot on for snow level, snow amount, snow type etc. There will always be some forecasts which go wrong (they are, after all, forecasts, and inherent in that word is the idea that the outcome will sometimes differ from what is predicted). There will also be times when the forecast is right for most people but wrong for some others (eg the conditions at Lake Tekapo may not be the same as in Christchurch, which may be frustrating for 1000 people living in Tekapo, but satisfactory for 400,000 people living in Christchurch). I dont think you can absolve yourself of making the effort to interpret a genralised forecast for your own location or own circumstances (unless of course you are paying a forecaster to produce something specifically for you).

[Storm Struck]

Hey Gary didnt you already talk about this a few years ago before you took off , Because i recall a simular topic.

There's some good steady showers coming through at the moment with strong gusty winds, and the rain gauge coninues to fill up since Tuesday night up to 45mm.

[mikestormchaser]

Yes still some good showers wafting on through had some hail actually earlier.
The wind is a bone chillr and looks to get worse tomorrow with the showers turning to rain.

[Willoughby]

Hey Gary didnt you already talk about this a few years ago before you took off , Because i recall a simular topic.

waterboy is not Gary.

[Myself]

Haha just seen this on weatherwatch's site.
"Motorists driving on State Highway 2 over the Rimutaka Ranges may also face hazardous conditions with gusts as high as 13km/h".

A wee error perhaps , sorry just had to add that.

I personally don't think it's right anyway. Mt Kaukau no doubt will see 140km/h gusts. The Rimutaka Road? It's not too exposed to southerlies. Yes it will be gusty. But 130km/h sounds like overkill for that road.

[melja]

Very steady rain here in rangiora for the last hour and a steady drop of temp too 1.2deg drop in the last hour to 4.9deg with wind gusts to 70kph.... if this keeps up i think some flakes may show up at some stage

[Manukau heads obs]

acts like, smells like, looks like Gary, but you say its not?
must be his brother then!

[Razor]

Very steady rain here in rangiora for the last hour and a steady drop of temp too 1.2deg drop in the last hour to 4.9deg with wind gusts to 70kph.... if this keeps up i think some flakes may show up at some stage

not a hope, its warmer than the last few days- a lot of rain coming today though

[Dale]

I've been asking myself that same question the last few days (no not if i'm Gary.. dont know the story behind it but sounds like fun) but when you nut it out.. only takes a couple of severe weather events for everyone to come out of the woodwork and join the amateur bandwagon.

I'll use weatherzone as an example, it being my home forum & place of residence whilst learning the trade.. The "Gap" microburst last year in Brisbane.. membership grew exponentially in a matter of hours after that.. it takes 1 person to say something, spread a link, they will tell another which will eventually get into the media.. then everyone spreads the link and it snowballs from there. Out of all whom joined after that, probably 10% actually knew what they were talking about & provide excellent real time input to this day.. the huge Brisbane ECL happening currently is testimony to that.. whos the guy down in Christchurch that just moved over there in the last week.. Ryan or someone? I have been watching his WZ posts over the last few years.. he will be invaluable to realtime situations..

Sure enough when the hit counters blows a gasket, its good for business.. but in this day of media hype climate change etc *yawn* everyone becomes a met

[NZstorm]

yes, that particularly cold airmass of a day or two back has gone and we have less cold air coming in. Maybe a warm frontal snow effect today for some regions such as the Volcanic Plateau.

[RWood]

Haha just seen this on weatherwatch's site.
"Motorists driving on State Highway 2 over the Rimutaka Ranges may also face hazardous conditions with gusts as high as 13km/h".

A wee error perhaps , sorry just had to add that.

I personally don't think it's right anyway. Mt Kaukau no doubt will see 140km/h gusts. The Rimutaka Road? It's not too exposed to southerlies. Yes it will be gusty. But 130km/h sounds like overkill for that road.

I agree. It can be dead calm up there in some southerly setups. Overkill.

[RWood]

acts like, smells like, looks like Gary, but you say its not?
must be his brother then!

No, Gary's spelling and sentence construction was better.

[Nev]

No, Gary's spelling and sentence construction was better.

My thoughts exactly RWood ... and who cares anyway?
Can we please restrict criticism to ideas, not people!


Quote of the day (well a couple of weeks ago anyway)...

Weather is a mixture of pattern and chaos - I work with pattern - I can't work with chaos. Pattern is isobar land on the weather maps, chaos is in the real world.
- Bob McDavitt

[waterboy]

The met service has removed most of the snow warning and forcasts from there site now.

[Philip Duncan]

Have spoken with MetService - they believe it would be unwise to use the Rimutaka wx station to measure winds from this direction for that particular highway as it's not indicative as to what the entire highway is getting. Gusts to 120km/h this morning rising to 140km/h this afternoon are being predicted on parts of the highway.

Waterboy - all the warnings are still in force that I can see?

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Come on Rain, open up from the Heavens!

[Chris Raine]

Raining steadily in Oamaru 5mm since 0600

[David]

Weather warnings back up again now.

The met service has removed most of the snow warning and forcasts from there site now.

Come on guys, you gotta give them a chance to update the warnings every now and then?

[Lacertae]

Strong wind this morning ...

[Storm Struck]

I can see the rain hooking in over Banks Peninnsula now on the latest radars, which also means the winds are going to pick up very soon.
Already starting to get some strong gusts, i certainly wouldnt want to be driving on the road with high sided vehicles today.
Hold on to your Cantab Hats and swords .