Multiple Lows & several very cold outbreaks 15th -24th May

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Multiple Lows & several very cold outbreaks 15th -24th May

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Well today and tomorrow a bit of respite for most. However a nasty looking low for the west of the South Island from Friday with Gales and warm temps likely in the east followed by a brief bitter southerly flow early next week. It looks as if a subtropical low will hit the north island early next week as well so plenty more activity on the way.
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Thanks Mark for stating a new topic for this possible event.

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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by Ryan Thomas »

Weekends gonna be great before I move to Brisbane next Wednesday!
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

You will certainly see more Thunderstorms in Brisbane.
Keep us updated of what conditions you get into....

I hope this Low does take hold, but I am not too sure about the potential of thunderstorm within it.
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Choice, some activity worth chasing on Sunday would be good :)
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by mattyj46 »

I see Metservice has predicted snow for Invercargill and Gore on Monday, hopefully it holds true but I dobut it.
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by Fujita Phil »

I should have stayed up in Queenstown for the next few days. Coronet Peak looked great from below this week and I risked the "chains must be carried" over the Crown Range on Wednesday. Heavy snow at the top and I just made it :-w
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by Storm Struck »

What a nice mild day today was, winds mainly light NE for most of the day but turned breezy N-NW from late afternoon.
Strip of high cloud went through this afternoon rather quickly but had some evidence in the cloud forms that there was still some cold air left behind from the previous system.
Observed some flashes towards the west before and i am sure if i looked now i would see more, quite big flashes too so more likely to be over the Alps abit closer i would think.
Looks like some good rainfall through the Mckensie Basin perhaps at the moment, maybe some of that showing up on the radars could be snow.
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by southernthrash »

mattyj46 wrote:I see Metservice has predicted snow for Invercargill and Gore on Monday, hopefully it holds true but I dobut it.
Setting up well for it at this stage.
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by Storm Struck »

There was a good burst of rain here between 5-6:30am, heavy at times with strong gusty NW winds also very horizontal as the door mats on our deck are soaked.
Its not often a front will cross from the west with such punch,as nobody really predicted the rain except for the few spots of rain but that was for tomorrow.
I did hear some thunder rumbles around 4am briefly but then went back to sleep, up to a total of 6mm in the gauge.
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

3mm rain from the North this morning with 50kph gusts... Unusual for Chch!
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by gopolks »

Some gusty winds for chch tomorrow, very surprised that this unusual warm weather is not going to be followed by a severe cold snap, judging by all reports we might get some rain on Monday, then its back to fine weather.
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

gopolks wrote:Some gusty winds for chch tomorrow, very surprised that this unusual warm weather is not going to be followed by a severe cold snap, judging by all reports we might get some rain on Monday, then its back to fine weather.
Really?!! I feel all ripped off!
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by gopolks »

Yep, couldnt believe it when I read the long term forecast, but fine on sat,sun, brief rain on Monday and them fine and sunny, Tuesday.

Must be the first time in a long time that temps of 20+ with a north wester in May, isn't followed up by some nasty stuff.
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Dont right off the cold snap just yet. Got to 17 today but 15.3 now with a fresh NW, due to the snow on the alps i would say as well. I think there may be some brief rain sat and sun from the west again. Back to that southerly on Monday, it all depends on the high in the tasman and whether that holds true or not. If that weakens some what then we could well have a little action. The low is a little too far east for the moment. That could change still 72-84 hours away from the event so who knows. 4mm recorded here this morning with 1.2mm falling in a 10min period.
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

In fact GFS is now showing reasonable totals with 35mm approx and temps around 5 degrees. So gopolks ya never know! I think we will see something after these norwesters.
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Well its always a fact or a old tail that when you get a period of rather warm weather in winter followed by a cold Southerly, its a sure sign of snow.
And quite often it has happened where we have had temps around 18-19C in winter then the next day its snowing and 0C..
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by Janos »

The big fall of 2006 followed in the tail of a warm period.
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by southernthrash »

Early next week looking interesting...
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by tich »

Coldest weather is forecast to arrive on Wednesday and stick around through to the weekend.
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by Vertigo »

the sounding last night in whenuapai looks very thundery.. wonder what the midday one will look like..
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by spwill »

Snow for the Hill Suburbs of Dunedin next week.

Some warm temps around NZ today :D , humid over the NI, dewpoints 15C at Auckland and 13C at Wellington.
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Very Humid here and a DP of 16°C, Once again the GFS is off the mark with the instability today as convergence is already occurring.
Hopefully something will push through the Cap.
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Is it summer or autumn out there :?: :-) , as its such a warm day currently 21C with a breezy Northerly.
There was strong gusty Northerly winds from about midnight last night, but they eased off by this morning then a few big gusts from the NW came in around midday and now its calm again.
Places like Queenstown and Wanaka will be watching those lake levels at the moment, apparently they are very high and right on the edges of the lakefront.
We certainly dont want a repeat of what happend to Queenstown years ago but it might happen yet with a further 24 hours of heavy rain in them hills yet down there.
Wow :eek: at those GFS numbers for next week they sure have come down, here's hoping it continues to show like that.
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Re: Yet Another Low (maybe followed by sub-low) 15th -22nd May

Unread post by waterboy »

Man tons of rain today but no way will it be snow. Chch had 20+???? It is no more than 10 all day here at Tekapo!
The gc is spilling Benmore-Avimore-Waitaki now but it doesnt look like he will have to spill the upper valley tonight. Maybe tommorow he will if this rain keeps up.
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