Cold Surge To End May [South Island]
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- Lawrence
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Cold Surge To End May [South Island]
Yes I know, although quite a way out, models are persistently suggesting a cold surge to the end of May, Just one for every one to keep their eye on I thought.
It may come to nothing I know but forewarned is forearmed
It may come to nothing I know but forewarned is forearmed
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Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
Met Service Rural outlook for Oamaru has snow for 1 May
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- CHCH Weather Chaser
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Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
Yes there does seem to be a nasty looking wintery storm Next weekend, however latest runs have that pushed further east not hitting New Zealand now due to an intense high of 1041hpa. We will have to see if that high weakens in the future runs.
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
- NZstorm
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Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
12Z gfs looks alright. I've posted the chart below more as a test of gfs accuracy. But I think we can be reasonably confident of a polar outbreak considering the ECMRF is on board as well.
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Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
ECMWF has been consistent with wintry weather arriving onto NZ late week on a southWesterly.But I think we can be reasonably confident of a polar outbreak considering the ECMRF is on board as well.
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Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
Of course- its Queens Birthday weekend, rotten weather is a given!
Christchurch Rocks
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Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
Blue Skies are onto this already as well. "Becoming very cold next Sunday and Monday with heavy rain possible, and snow developing to low levels; strong to gale force southerlies."
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
- gllitz
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Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
Still a fair ways out, I know, but....
EDIT: Having problems seeing the ECMWF models...and NOGAPS not showing this at all, as it shows it moving further east...anyone else having problems with ECMWF runs?
EDIT: Having problems seeing the ECMWF models...and NOGAPS not showing this at all, as it shows it moving further east...anyone else having problems with ECMWF runs?
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"Saru mo ki kara ochiru"
Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
Would like to think that this is to southwesterly to clobber Wellington. Think we will get off relatively lightly at this stage...
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Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
current GFS model run for next sunday looks impressive!
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/in ... 8&focus=mh
if holds true, will be a hum dinger!
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/in ... 8&focus=mh
if holds true, will be a hum dinger!
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Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
fantastical might be a better word....will be interesting to see how it does work out!
- Michael
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Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
Where can I go to escape it....Hawaii sounds good enough
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Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
That is a better word! I love this weather...after such a quiet March and April it's nice to see Mother Nature stepping up a gear!Manukau heads observer wrote:fantastical might be a better word....will be interesting to see how it does work out!
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Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
We deserve a SW instead of more southerly directions. Perhaps the (almost certainly) upcoming El Nino will rectify the imbalance.Myself wrote:Would like to think that this is to southwesterly to clobber Wellington. Think we will get off relatively lightly at this stage...
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Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
I hope that the incoming anticyclone will peak at or over 1040hPa, much better than this one which only got up to 1038hPa, which should drive the cold air up from the deep south according to how active the low pressure system will be out to the east of NZ. This depending if this current weather pattern continues.
With such a high hPa reading for today, despite the winds,it was like having anticyclonic gloom without an anticyclone, if that makes sense.
JohnGaul
NZThS
With such a high hPa reading for today, despite the winds,it was like having anticyclonic gloom without an anticyclone, if that makes sense.
JohnGaul
NZThS
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
Michael wrote:Where can I go to escape it....Hawaii sounds good enough
...if you moved to Hawaii, I fear we would hear no end of the "NE Gales" and their effects on your constitution.
- CHCH Weather Chaser
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Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
Latest Runs for the Polar Outbreak this weekend show the high at 1045hpa in the southern tasman. 500MB thickness temps up on this run from 516 to 520
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
- tgsnoopy
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Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
Oh man, I'm going to melt so bad when I got to Cairns next month.
It's going to be great! (so long as it doesn't rain all the time).
Fingers crossed for more action weather out of the next system.
It's going to be great! (so long as it doesn't rain all the time).
Fingers crossed for more action weather out of the next system.
- gllitz
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Re: Models Suggest Cold Surge For End of May
...nice numbers!...but pretty sure 500MB THK levels are measured in DECAMETRES, not deg C.....read your charts, don't just look at them!MarkThomas wrote:Latest Runs for the Polar Outbreak this weekend show the high at 1045hpa in the southern tasman. 500MB thickness temps up on this run from 516 to 520
...and don't be disappointed when they all fizzle away to over 530!
"Saru mo ki kara ochiru"