Cold Surge To End May [South Island]

[Lawrence]

Yes I know, although quite a way out, models are persistently suggesting a cold surge to the end of May, Just one for every one to keep their eye on I thought.
It may come to nothing I know but forewarned is forearmed

[Chris Raine]

Met Service Rural outlook for Oamaru has snow for 1 May

[carrot]

That was 3 weeks ago

[Chris Raine]

Try 1 June

[spwill]

It is looking very wintry for later next week.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yes there does seem to be a nasty looking wintery storm Next weekend, however latest runs have that pushed further east not hitting New Zealand now due to an intense high of 1041hpa. We will have to see if that high weakens in the future runs.

[NZstorm]

12Z gfs looks alright. I've posted the chart below more as a test of gfs accuracy. But I think we can be reasonably confident of a polar outbreak considering the ECMRF is on board as well.

[spwill]

But I think we can be reasonably confident of a polar outbreak considering the ECMRF is on board as well.

ECMWF has been consistent with wintry weather arriving onto NZ late week on a southWesterly.

[Razor]

Of course- its Queens Birthday weekend, rotten weather is a given!

[RWood]

I seem to recall last QB weather being quite good.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Blue Skies are onto this already as well. "Becoming very cold next Sunday and Monday with heavy rain possible, and snow developing to low levels; strong to gale force southerlies."

[gllitz]

Still a fair ways out, I know, but....

EDIT: Having problems seeing the ECMWF models...and NOGAPS not showing this at all, as it shows it moving further east...anyone else having problems with ECMWF runs?

[David]

Next Sunday looks like "SW gales"

[Myself]

Would like to think that this is to southwesterly to clobber Wellington. Think we will get off relatively lightly at this stage...

[Manukau heads obs]

current GFS model run for next sunday looks impressive!
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/in ... 8&focus=mh


if holds true, will be a hum dinger!

[Philip Duncan]

Isn't that a fantastic image Brian!?

[Manukau heads obs]

fantastical might be a better word....will be interesting to see how it does work out!

[Michael]

Where can I go to escape it....Hawaii sounds good enough

[Philip Duncan]

fantastical might be a better word....will be interesting to see how it does work out!

That is a better word! I love this weather...after such a quiet March and April it's nice to see Mother Nature stepping up a gear!

[RWood]

Would like to think that this is to southwesterly to clobber Wellington. Think we will get off relatively lightly at this stage...

We deserve a SW instead of more southerly directions. Perhaps the (almost certainly) upcoming El Nino will rectify the imbalance.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I hope that the incoming anticyclone will peak at or over 1040hPa, much better than this one which only got up to 1038hPa, which should drive the cold air up from the deep south according to how active the low pressure system will be out to the east of NZ. This depending if this current weather pattern continues.
With such a high hPa reading for today, despite the winds,it was like having anticyclonic gloom without an anticyclone, if that makes sense.
JohnGaul
NZThS

[Myself]

Where can I go to escape it....Hawaii sounds good enough

...if you moved to Hawaii, I fear we would hear no end of the "NE Gales" and their effects on your constitution.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Latest Runs for the Polar Outbreak this weekend show the high at 1045hpa in the southern tasman. 500MB thickness temps up on this run from 516 to 520

[tgsnoopy]

Oh man, I'm going to melt so bad when I got to Cairns next month.

It's going to be great! (so long as it doesn't rain all the time).

Fingers crossed for more action weather out of the next system.

[gllitz]

Latest Runs for the Polar Outbreak this weekend show the high at 1045hpa in the southern tasman. 500MB thickness temps up on this run from 516 to 520

...nice numbers!...but pretty sure 500MB THK levels are measured in DECAMETRES, not deg C.....read your charts, don't just look at them!

...and don't be disappointed when they all fizzle away to over 530!