NZ Weather Forum

M/S Warning: HEAVY SNOW HAWKES BAY : Strong, bitterly cold southerlies expected to spread north during Sunday. Expect 15 to 20cm of snow down to 300 metres and lighter falls to about 200 metres on the hills.

Yikes!

The likes of the Desert Road is likely to be closed Sunday afternoon into Monday due to snow

Models have been showing a lowish risk of Thunder for the upper NI tomorrow otherwise the cold surge for Auckland will be clearing skies Sunday and a sparkling fine Monday.

Snow to 200m in the north island? Crickey that would be an unusual happening

should get snow on the kaimais, etc, if enough of the shower activity survives across the ranges
maybe even pirongia?
?

I think snowflakes are possible to around 5 or 600 metres around Auckland which certainly includes Coromandel & Kaimai ranges. Pirongia too and the Hunua ranges. Don't think it'll go any further ... pretty sure the Waitakeres are only a few hundred metres high. But as you say, it needs the moisture to make it this far...and Sunday afternoon looks quite dry at this stage.

Unless its SW or probably SSW would be better and close to the centre of the departing low (if it snows this side) but has to overcast with persistant rain for any likely hood of flurries.

ie from precipitation dredged by the low itself rather than convective showers brought up the sea.

Hi Ive been checking these forum out for a while, following some of the cooler weather events and such.
I'm wondering about this snowfall on Sunday. I'm in Hamilton, and me and few freinds are considering driving down somewhere to see some snow-action, but I'm wondering, where can you go to watch snowfall, that wont be a closed road? for example it will no doubt snow on the Desert Rd, but they will close that and we may be left on the outskirts of Taupo or something. In the rain (with no snow)?

Hi dan

welcome! its about time we have more people from Hamilton. We seem to lack people from there on here.

As for the snow i would go for national park. Its not far from Taumaranui. Although it could possibly get shut you can easily drive down to Taumaranui if the snow gets too heavy and fear of getting caught there. Thats just my idea any way. Last year after the big snow up there, on our way to the mountain, we saw snow just 5 minutes out of Taumaranui on the side of the road. This was a few days after the snow fell.

I dont know much about the area, would Taumaranui be if you went down the west side as opposed to going through Taupo, then turning off to National Park?

I'm wondering about this snowfall on Sunday. I'm in Hamilton, and me and few freinds are considering driving down somewhere to see some snow-action, but I'm wondering, where can you go to watch snowfall, that wont be a closed road? for example it will no doubt snow on the Desert Rd, but they will close that and we may be left on the outskirts of Taupo or something. In the rain (with no snow)?

You might get snow before you even get to Taupo or Taumaranui, if there's moisture left when the very cold air arrivies - that could easily happen as there's a low expected to cross the North island immediately prior to the southerly.
Two polar blasts (3 in South Island?) over NZ in May - don't think that's happened before, even during the very cold May's recorded, such as 1959, 1977, and 1992.

about half way to Ohakune from national park is the turn off to taumanui...(i.e heading south) there is a ski shop there at the junction

yeah ive just been checking it all out on a map those three towns are all pretty close together think I'll just head towards National Park and see what happens! I'll post photos if i get sum pretty pictures

Here's the big question: how low will the snow go in Wellington? I think 200m is optimistic. 300-400m most likely.

sea temperatures are colder than normal to the east and south of NZ at the moment, yes?
that will help make this a big event, yes?

Dan, look forward to any photos of the winter weather down there.

I agree with tich, it will be cold enough for snow at Taupo but the problem will be a lack of precip as its quite sheltered there.

Myself, I think 300-400m.

I think it's a fair bet I'll be heading for the Desert Road summit on Sunday morning.

Fingers crossed I'll get there before it hits.

Need to be careful where you go, think about getting home again and such like. I have a good feeling about this one.

Mind you, it's still a little early. Ask me again Saturday night.

I have been considering a snow chase myself but I am not that keen on chasing a southerly. Often the best set up for North Island snow chasing is an unstable polar trough coming in from the west, bigger snow dumps!(on the western side of Tongariro anyway). And I find the central NI tends to get really blasted by wind on the southerly, not pleasant. But I will decide tommorrow evening whether its worth the trip.

Brian, I see what you mean by cold sea temps up the east of the South Island. Just 8 to 9C! It would have the effect of reducing low level warming and making the air more stable. Colder with less precip.

philip duncan wrote:I think snowflakes are possible to around 5 or 600 metres around Auckland which certainly includes Coromandel & Kaimai ranges. Pirongia too and the Hunua ranges. Don't think it'll go any further ... pretty sure the Waitakeres are only a few hundred metres high. But as you say, it needs the moisture to make it this far...and Sunday afternoon looks quite dry at this stage.

I'll be up the Waitakeres if it looks like any chance, the highest spot by the road is 396m ASL. I spent a freezing afternoon up there last winter getting rained and hailed on at 4.1 C willing it to snow for the camera

Cheers,

G

lol - nothing like willing for extreme weather! I doubt it will snow even at the tops of the Waitaks. I think all the showers may have gone by then... at 400m it will be very close...but probably 1 or 200 metres too low.

I hope for snow one day in my lifetime in Auckland city itself. That'd be something to tell the grandchildren.

philip duncan wrote:I hope for snow one day in my lifetime in Auckland city itself. That'd be something to tell the grandchildren.

so do i. its happened before so it is possible http://www.weatherforum.org.nz/phpBB3/v ... ch+#p52400. probably not so possible in today's warmer climate. If i have my dates right this was when the world was fearing about global COOLING not WARMING
It happened for Buenos Aires http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/ju ... na.weather a couple of years ago so.... we never know!

Yeah, Buenos Aires, same latitude as Sydney! I think in the SH though, there are major longitudinal variations in temperature. IIRC, somewhere in the Indian/Southern Ocean way west of Perth, cold water and cold air prevails at disturbingly low latitudes. We are kind of lucky in that regard.
So, not sure what the longitudinal factors are in Argentina. Of course, the landmass to their south/southwest would be colder than anything we can muster (by far), but moisture is another matter.

Buenos Aires has almost the same latitude as Sydney, just 1/2 deg further south. Its mean annual temperature is the same as that at Observatory Hill in Sydney, its summers being slightly hotter and winters slightly cooler.

this rain band approaching from the west has an impressive looking narrow band of what could be hail,
which looks to be heading to slide down and across the auckland area this afternoon
could be some thunder too

Gosh it's moving slowly!!

It's fair pelting down here at the moment, just got off the phone with a friend in kta and he says it's pelting down heavy there too, black looking out towards the west and it's coming my way.

Temps have dropped, wonder if there gonna be hail in that stuff... takecare.