Winter Outlook Discussion (2009)

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gllitz
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Winter Outlook Discussion (2009)

Unread post by gllitz »

Rupert, I imagine you have some thoughts on the below (as well as others! ;-) ...but probably mostly him):

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/2456980 ... inter-Niwa

...and possible shift to El Nino conditions, according to the above article...
"Saru mo ki kara ochiru"
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by spwill »

The current wintry pattern has forced a change in their thinking for June.
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by RWood »

Hmmm...sounds like something of a revision after the May-July outlook. Normally they don't mention conditions for a particular month (in this case June) but just for the season overall. The June-August outlook isn't posted on NIWA yet. For autumn, clearly the overall temps have been in the below normal category thanks to a very cold May. I don't have the assigned %ages for the autumn outlook any more (only the May-July is on the website), but I think the minority branch ("colder", since they preferred average or warmer than average) would have been set at 20%. Don't recall how TonyT assessed the autumn temp. outlook.
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by Myself »

If it does go El Nino, still a way off. We should be neutral or near-neutral for a while yet. An El Nino influenced Spring is not an inspiring prospect to be honest.
I'm not willing to chance it on increasing number of south-westerlies. It's all to easy for a south-westerly flow to change subtly and give Wellington gusty NW'erlies or straight southerlies.
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by RWood »

El Nino startup in the southern Spring is not a very commonly found beast, so we don't have a lot of well-documented examples to go on. I'm still hopeful of a greater incidence of critical southwesterlies - mainly because in the last 18 months or more there have been virtually none of them!
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by Philip Duncan »

I know someone who would beg to differ!
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i think i see the humour there, a bit abstract, but see it now,LOL
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by gllitz »

First name James....... ;)
"Saru mo ki kara ochiru"
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i was thinking more along the gale SWer and being critical of that?
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by Philip Duncan »

Spot on Brian
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by TonyT »

RWood wrote:Don't recall how TonyT assessed the autumn temp. outlook.
At the beginning of March we wrote:
“Looking further ahead to winter, there are some indications of a season similar to last year, with infrequent yet fairly severe cold outbreaks, generally dry cool conditions interspersed with storms and infrequent periods of heavy rainfall. There appears to be a significant risk of potentially flooding rainfalls from time to time.

... From April and through May temperatures may become cooler than usual, with more dry sunny weather over most of the country, but some troughs and potentially heavy rain in the far north and far south.”


Our April and May issues continued with the same theme.

Back at the beginning of February we wrote:
“Looking further ahead to winter, there are some indications of a season similar to last year, with infrequent yet fairly severe cold outbreaks, generally dry cool conditions interspersed with storms and infrequent periods of heavy rainfall.”

So, I’m pretty happy with that.

Certainly looks to me that June will be colder than normal as well, with temperatures nearer normal in July and August, but still making winter a colder than usual one overall. At least June should be more settled over the South Island with more anticyclones, but maybe more depressions affecting the North Island.
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

june is going to start with a large intense high
frosty in places,but sunny days
but coastal areas should have near normal temperatures
but when that slowly moves east, there will be warmer northerlies
so to me,for the first 2 weeks, there is nothing to make it colder than normal?
thoughts?
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by RWood »

philip duncan wrote:I know someone who would beg to differ!
The keyword is "critical" Philip - Auckland gets lots of SW regardless but how the flows hit W'gton is a different story..."critical" refers to the finer details of wind direction.
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by Razor »

El Nino...we'll takre an El Nino spring...temps in the mid - high 20's, plenty of water in the hydro lakes.
Just kick it before summer for the cockies :-$
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by NZstorm »

s going to start with a large intense high
frosty in places,but sunny days
but coastal areas should have near normal temperatures
but when that slowly moves east, there will be warmer northerlies
so to me,for the first 2 weeks, there is nothing to make it colder than normal?
thoughts?
Possibly take first 5 days of June for temps to recover as there will be cold air trapped in the high. But week after might be normal.

For some reason we are getting winter early this year but I can't see this cold lasting all winter. I agree with razor, the spring westerlies will come in early with milder conditions.
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by spwill »

we'll takre an El Nino spring

A disturbed westerly pattern this spring will far more interesting than the Anticyclonic no storm southwesterlies here in Auckland over the past two years.
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by RWood »

I've had a look at a NOAA site that monitors the Enso states. Going back to the 60s , I found 3 cases of El Nino events that started in Spring. In all 3 cases the indices attained were not very strong, and the events were fairly short-lived, in the 5-8 month range.

1969/70: The spring and summer were both quite warm and fairly settled. There was another episode just before this one, with only the briefest of breaks, so it should probably not be counted as a "true" spring onset.

1976/77: NZ temps had already been running below average most of the time from late 1975, and continued this way until the end of February, things improved considerably in March.

1977/78: Temperatures stayed below average until late December (actually dropped after a dull wet June-July with moderate temperatures, to a cold August and an exceptionally cold September), but then a spectacularly warm and dry period ran from January to almost mid-April.

These latter 2 events were not widely separated, so in the current case, where things have been neutral or Nina-like for some time nbow, puts us in territory that hasn't been visited since 1951, if an El Nino does develop in spring. It may be worth looking at the latter more closely (a shortish event started in the spring of 1951).
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by Michael »

Today is / was a good example of a critical wind in auckland,this morning clear S say 190° or anticlockwise ok,but SSW +195 or so to about 210 Beebop and cloudy with the wind increasing as the cloud increases in the N&W and after that usual SW with Showers etc
RWood wrote:
philip duncan wrote:I know someone who would beg to differ!
The keyword is "critical" Philip - Auckland gets lots of SW regardless but how the flows hit W'gton is a different story..."critical" refers to the finer details of wind direction.
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Re: NIWA: Colder start to winter...

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/i ... jsp?c=ssta

the whole tasman sea,and seas to the south of OZ, is colder than normal now
going to be a colder than normal winter I would say
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by jamie »

cold temps of late... coldest in a number of years id say... [someone] said it would be the coldest winter in a long time. Thoughts anyone?

P.S im only stirring ... in one of those moods i suppose.

[Edited by Nev: Sorry j--me--h, but think you might've been treading forum eggshells there]
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Re: Frosty High, 1-8th June

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

eventualy we would get a colder than normal winter, statistics would tell you that
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Re: Frosty High, 1-8th June

Unread post by RWood »

If they predict a cold winter for long enough, it will happen eventually. Doesn't tell you anything about the soundness of methods. A number of "coolists" have been making such calls, waiting and hoping for this. And just remember winter isn't exactly over yet - and NZ makes a miniscule contribution to the global mean temperatures. Warming scenarios do not require every season to be warm, or uniformly increasing curves.
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Re: Frosty High, 1-8th June

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

also were one area will be colder than normal, there will be another area warmer than normal (on the other side of that slow moving system)
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Re: Frosty High, 1-8th June

Unread post by jamie »


[Edited by Nev: Sorry j--me--h, but think you might've been treading forum eggshells there]
:lol: i was expecting it to be completely deleted. Well done on the editing.
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Doesn't tell you anything about the soundness of methods.
Niwa were well out with their Autumn prediction.
also were one area will be colder than normal, there will be another area warmer than normal (on the other side of that slow moving system)
East coast Australia.
Last edited by spwill on Tue 09/06/2009 10:27, edited 1 time in total.
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