Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

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Andrew Massie
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Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

I see MS have snow to sea level in the SI next Sat following a NW flow. Time for a new thread!
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by gllitz »

From what in the models? Can't see anything there?!? A bit confused...:? :?
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i think refering to ECMWF showing a bit of a resurgence of the SW-> S with a new front moving up from the S, on Friday or so...
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

It is possible because this sytem heads back from attaching with a new low and the high weakening and heads back to NZ but the high is still intense enough to be pushing it east. We need that to weaken. Models do not back this up or maps atm.
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by spwill »

showing a bit of a resurgence of the SW-> S with a new front moving up from the S, on Friday or so...
Cold upper air will be out to the east.
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by Michael »

Accrding to Metservice as of today it has Showers with a SW in Auckland,a few clearing showers in the far south and its about it.
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by gllitz »

Looks a bit deja-vu-ish to me at this stage.... :rolleyes: :wave:
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by Janos »

gllitz wrote:Looks a bit deja-vu-ish to me at this stage.... :rolleyes: :wave:
Yep back to sheffield pies quickly.
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

GFS now has come into line with ECMWF on this brief southerly outbreak for next saturday as well, I see
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by Myself »

The high moves in pretty quick after this one. Could be much more of a "classic" southerly - wintry/snow showers followed shortly after by clearing skies and a truly crisp Sunday (Razor will be delighted!). :)
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by Razor »

Razor will be in Wellington so will not be at all perturbed. :wave:
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by TonyT »

Razor wrote:Razor will be in Wellington so will not be at all perturbed. :wave:
If you are taking the ferry you might be extremely perturbed, all over the deck... >_< :rolleyes:
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by gopolks »

Should this thread now be closed?, since nothing is expected at all on June 6th.
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by Razor »

gopolks wrote:Should this thread now be closed?, since nothing is expected at all on June 6th.
metservice- Saturday

North Island, cold southerlies spreading north,with showers in many places. South Island, few early showers in the west clearing and becoming fine, showers elsewhere, mainly about the coast, with snow to 300 metres.

Blueskies- Saturday

Saturday 70% 1-3mm Very cold Strong SW Snow to low levels

What, prey tell, is your definition of "nothing" Gopolks?
Last edited by Razor on Tue 02/06/2009 12:34, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by melja »

May i reminde you that other people do live and do other things outside of chch so even if this event does not effect you in chch it may well effect people doing things outside of chch, im going tramping so it may effect me at 5-600m asl.
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by gopolks »

Razor wrote:
gopolks wrote:Should this thread now be closed?, since nothing is expected at all on June 6th.
metservice- Saturday

North Island, cold southerlies spreading north,with showers in many places. South Island, few early showers in the west clearing and becoming fine, showers elsewhere, mainly about the coast, with snow to 300 metres.

Blueskies- Saturday

Saturday 70% 1-3mm Very cold Strong SW Snow to low levels

What, prey tell, is your definition of "nothing" Gopolks?
Well they must of just changed it? because no warnings to be seen, about an hour or two ago.
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by gllitz »

COMPLETELY OT: just waiting for moderators (or is it Foggy only?) to change the banner on the home page/banner of the forum to read "Winter 2009" instead of Autumn? _b :D :D :D :wave: ;)

Back on-topic: meh.........:I
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by Nev »

Think the banner is Foggy's dept.

Not sure what gopolks is on about? Might not be snow to sea-level, but MetService's Severe Weather Outlook hasn't really changed since yesterday...
MetService - Severe Weather Outlook
Issued: Tue 2 June 2009 at 0247 pm, Valid from Thu 4 June 2009 to Sun 7 June 2009

...On Saturday even colder southerlies should spread over much of the country. At this stage the coldest air is expected to pass between the Chatham Islands and the mainland. Sleet or snow showers will probably fall briefly to fairly low levels in the south and east of the South Island and to between 300 and 500 metres in the southern North Island. People are advised to keep up to date with weather forecasts. On Sunday a narrow ridge should pass over the country followed by a milder northerly flow.
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Metservice are forecasting snow to near sea level for the south on Friday and the south and east on Saturday in their brief forecast. 500 thickness has had 522 on 2 of the 3 runs today through GFS and this includes the one just through.
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by Myself »

gopolks, they have been talking about snow to sea level for the last day or so, but no severe weather outlook confidence level is given probably because they don't think the accumulations will be enough to warrant a warning. Likewise, warnings aren't issued until the lead-up to an event. It's far too early.
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by Lawrence »

Not enough moisture at this stage,unfourtunatly.Very cold though. :(
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes, this should be weaker than the last 2.

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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by Storm Struck »

A brief flick of wintry showers for Saturday afternoon may well bring the snow levels close to sea level, more or so for Banks Peninnsula.
Then a clearence should follow by Saturday night so very brief indeed.
A mild to warm spell next week with a N-NW flow will be very welcome, more snow for the Southern Alps too if going by what the snowforecast site predicts.
Then maybe later next week a significant polar blast could follow after such a warm spell in winter, anyone got any really longrange model outlooks?.
I noticed the one of the GFS models has a deep low to the far south of Australia next Tuesday, shouldnt really be talking about something so far out but just thought something might follow with such a warm week ahead.
Edit. Just looking at the longrange Metrogram is picking up a low system down to about 980hpa by late next week with some reasonable rainfall totals :-# :-$ no more said.
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Jasestrm wrote: shouldnt really be talking about something so far out but just thought something might follow with such a warm week ahead.
Edit. Just looking at the longrange Metrogram is picking up a low system down to about 980hpa by late next week with some reasonable rainfall totals :-# :-$ no more said.
Dont you often talk about potential cold blasts that are way out quite often though? ;)
No big deal, good to hope!! as i always do!! :wave:
Beautiful day in Christchurch today after a frosty start.. very cold infact -2C is what i thought it got down to.
Tonight maybe even colder.
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Re: Brief cold spell Saturday 6th June

Unread post by Storm Struck »

tornadoman18 wrote:
Jasestrm wrote: shouldnt really be talking about something so far out but just thought something might follow with such a warm week ahead.
Edit. Just looking at the longrange Metrogram is picking up a low system down to about 980hpa by late next week with some reasonable rainfall totals :-# :-$ no more said.
Dont you often talk about potential cold blasts that are way out quite often though? ;)
No big deal, good to hope!! as i always do!! :wave:
Beautiful day in Christchurch today after a frosty start.. very cold infact -2C is what i thought it got down to.
Tonight maybe even colder.
Your point is what exactly, i already stated twice that its along way out.
There is nothing wrong with talking about possible cold snaps coming up as we all do talk about it as members on here.
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