Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

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Storm Struck
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Ah Huh :D thats why the ground was more wet than the deck was when i went outside earlier, it was lightly raining before and thought it was abit odd that the concrete was wetter than anything else.
Rain picked up briefly again about 10 minutes ago but just spoty stuff now with some mist wafting past the security lights, maybe fog might be on the agenda after all.
It actually feels like standing in one of South Westlands native forests so very moist, except the temperature is 11C.
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

starting to get interaction with the jet stream in the north tasman now, as the central tasman low cartwheels closer
surprised the trough line to the west of the NI did not move closer overnight
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes Brian, the ridge has done a good job at keeping Tasman Sea activity well to our west although I see there has been a thunderstorm over Taranaki last hour or two.
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

West Auckland now has risk according to the GFS.
This includes North Western Waikato too.
Latest GFS on CAPE and B4LLI:
and Conv Inhibition:
It doesn't seem there will be much resistance for thing to come up.
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by NZstorm »

While the atmosphere is a bit unstable over Auckland today Tornado Tim, there is nothing to push the air up. We are relying on the frontal boundary for the lift and that looks to be stuck out to sea. Looking like a chance for thunder over Auckland Saturday as the low moves over us.
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Thats unfortunate.
There are some awesome CB's in the Tasman atm.
Look at these Sat pics.
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by spwill »

Atleast we are on the warm :D side of the trough for a change, 17C here. The air is very moist for the time of year, 14C dewpoints.

Cold SE flow next week, perhaps a snow dump for Ruapehu.
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by NZstorm »

I notice the gfs wants to bring a slightly drier airmass into northern regions overnight Thursday and for it to interfere with instability tomorrow. I can't see any sign of the drier air on Raoul Island obs though.
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by jamie »

those clouds out east last night were amazing. Sitting in the library at uni 5 floors up studying for exams meant i had the perfect view. Watched them go from nothing all the way to full blown Cbs. As the sun set they were bright pink. Tried to take photos but my cell phone just wasnt doing the clouds justice.
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

CB's developing over the far north now :)
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by spwill »

There have been one or two towering Cu clouds over the Waitaks this afternoon but they have been short lived. I see there are some Cb clouds developing over Northland currently.
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Some Nice red blotches on the rain radar.
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by jamie »

the northern - north western sky had an angry look to it on sunset.
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by spwill »

There has been Thunderstorm activity over Northland over the few hours also there is storm activity out to sea NW of Ak.
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by jamie »

Check out the radar :shock: looks like a wild ride out there. Got some green in there and on a path toward raglan possibly a bit further north.
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by Dale »

Can see a bit of lightning off to the west from here.. sporadically lighting up the Cb's offshore.
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by DT-NZ »

LAM (local area microburst) rain DB area 0610-0620hrs - rain has stopped, no wind, surface flooding in low lying area's in and around Kaitaia. Will take a look around later on today.
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

lots of thunder/heavy showers etc in the M/S severe weather forecast for the upper NI :) :)
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, tomorrow is the day for thunderstorms in the north, certainly a high risk for Northland/Auckland. Can't see anything firing today though as there is zero CAPE. But that all changes tomorrow. :smile:
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by David »

We have good persistent rain here, 7mm in the last 2 hours.
Tomorrow looks very nice! I will be shocked if there is nothing again!
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by jamie »

why is the cloud base dropping so low? its almost like raining fog in the city now
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

due to the relatively high DP airmass moving south, which has been slowly cooling, and has now reached saturation point
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by spwill »

I see Kerikeri had 63mm today.

Looks to be a line of Cb/thunderstorms out to the west of upper NI currently.
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Re: Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Yea Spwill,
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