Tasman Sea trough 2nd week June

[NZstorm]

Looking like a trough builds over the Tasman this week with fronts affecting NZ from late Monday.
GFS suggests airmass will be unstable with this system (cold upper air, moist low level air) and it looks like the front mid week should be thundery in the west and north of the country. Further wet thundery episodes likely at the end the week as a strong system crosses the country.

CAPE chart for Thursday morning. Auckland tends to be in a thunder shadow with upper level NW flows although if we can get a surface NE we may not be.

[degreed]

What else would you expect? - its the Fieldays at Mystery Creek this week...

[NZstorm]

Maybe not such a bad week for the field days as inland Waikato can be a bit sheltered in northerly flows. Certainly a bit milder too. On the latest gfs Friday looks the wettest day.

[Manukau heads obs]

looks like you need to add a /
to the end of your station link URL in your forum profile there DavidG

[David]

I will be sitting exams Thu PM and Fri AM
So a thunderstorm better not come then!

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Looks like a few areas in the North Island are in for a pummerting over the next few days with a subtropical low affecting many. The South Island doesnt seem to get too much at all however. Bay of Plenty area looks like getting hit hardest and some central areas!

[Storm Struck]

It certainly is going to be abit milder than of recent weeks with double figure overnight lows for many .
More a complex trough and low system really, which will affect northern and western areas of both islands.
Some brief rain for the east tomorrow and perhaps a few spots on Wednesday or Thursday, otherwise remaining dry out east.
I am keeping watch on the low with some models showing it crossing central New Zealand and moving out into the southern ocean before swinging its arm back in over eastern regions of both islands.
So i wouldnt rule out the South Island at all at this stage.

[Tornado Tim]

GFS is suggesting this unstable air is being quite stubborn with shifting over NZ.
It seems with it will finally shift ova on the 13th.

[NZstorm]

GFS is suggesting this unstable air is being quite stubborn with shifting over NZ.
It seems with it will finally shift ova on the 13th

Darn, persistent ridging over the country keeps the colder upper air back in the Tasman.

[jamie]

anyone else finding the MS radars are stuck to 9am?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Doesn't look like an interesting week here in Canterbury with the incoming weather system

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Tornado Tim]

Yup Jamie same here, They haven't updated them.

[Andrew Massie]

Doesn't look like an interesting week here in Canterbury with the incoming weather system

JohnGaul
NZThS

We've had our fun! Somebody else's turn now!

[Nev]

Well, the ol' NE'ers certainly kicked-in up this way today.
Mean-winds at 6pm were, 96 km/h at Cape Reinga, 76 km/h at Tutukaka Harbour, 78 km/h at Tiritiri Matangi and 56 km/h in Akld's Waitemata Harbour.

[Manukau heads obs]

we got some reasonable speeds here too last night, 30 knots (55 kmh)
good rain has fallen here last hour or so

[Nev]

Just a little drizzly here this morn, but about 7mm since about midnight so far.

Are those gust-speeds Brian?

[Manukau heads obs]

yes, max gust
but we were averaging 20 to 25

[spwill]

Still quite cold, 12C with dewpoints around 10C.
Sat pic shows some Cb development on the Front, moderate rain here.

[Pelorus Pete]

Our 1st rain here in the Pelorus Sound since 18th May.
Been colder than normal but brilliant fine days - occasional fog in mornings

[Razor]

No one seems to have spooted that coming? Were there any warnings?

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/60372 ... ered-gales

[Manukau heads obs]

Dunedin sticks out into a NE wind, so not surprised they got strong winds there

[Myself]

None of those wind gusts are strong enough for warnings, and I don't think they issue warnings if it's only for a small area.

[Storm Struck]

Had some brief rain this morning from about 6-7am with 2.8mm in the gauge, certainly came through earlier than i was expecting.
The temperature still remains cold as the sun hasnt really broken out yet, with plenty of thick high cloud about and 11C.
The MS forecast early morning fog for Thurs/Fri this week for Christchurch, but they also say strong NE winds and easing on Friday.
Doesnt make sense to me as you wont see Fog if there is strong winds blowing, as it will just break it all up.

[Fujita Phil]

Dunedin sticks out into a NE wind, so not surprised they got strong winds there

Bimmin strong NE yesterday and over night. A tree was down further down the hill from me and unfortunately it was recycling day. I now have two recycling bins

[NZstorm]

GFS still points to a lightning active front on Thursday morning to be approaching the NI. I would say upper Northland and Taranaki are the regions most likely to catch some thunder activity.