Thunderstorms Mid June?

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Tornado Tim
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Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Well GFS is giving the impression of some good potential for thunderstorms for the 13th at least.
Have a look at theses:
Main areas of Interest are:
Northland, Auckland, Western Waikato and South Western Waikato.
Possibly: NP, Coromandel District?
It seems this Low may give thing a little push so hopefully the DP's will be a bit higher and some cloud cover will go.
Cross your fingers people.
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by gllitz »

Wowers...impressive! :eek:
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

The GFS just gets better and better....
Look at this...
If the majority of the island is getting a a higher CAPE Now.
Centralized around the Waikato and Western Waikato.
Hows thinking about chasing?
There is a very low cloud base atm here...
A person from Bombay is reporting Mammatus formations already.
Why have met service updated there thunderstorm outlook?
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

nice looking CB line out to the west of me at the moment
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by spwill »

Cb tops out to sea in the west.
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by NZstorm »

Its a case of watching out for any punch in the convection today. There needs to be some convergence, the daytime heating will help, even 9 days out from the shortest day. The daytime heating played a part in thursday afternooons storms over Northland I think.
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by Dale »

Heres another one taken about 30 or so minutes ago from here.. textbook Cb with flanking line just off the coast.
cb.jpg
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by jamie »

ill be chasing anything that is worth chasing. quite a nice warm sunny dat at the moment so thats a giant + for thunderstorms
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by NZstorm »

Sunny 16C here now. I see a weak cb has just sprang up to the NNE of Auckland.
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i think thats the start of a line of cb's to the east of northland thats going to swing down into the waikato?
they are nothing to write home about yet
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

suddenly looking better!
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Good to hear that it looks better in Auckland atm. Waikato not so good but this DTSH may help it get its act together.
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by NZstorm »

yes, more solid looking cells out to the ESE of Auckland. Obviously some convergence going on there.
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by jamie »

Yes a few local shoots heading up but seem to be quickly dying at this stage. My view atm. First one has that weak Cb which is now more NE of auckland.
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by David »

NZstorm wrote:yes, more solid looking cells out to the ESE of Auckland. Obviously some convergence going on there.
Just had 2mm here in a series of short heavy-ish bursts, moving south now and blue skies coming back.
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by NZstorm »

A quick snap of the convergence line from my place. Excuse the tree. This line is still a bit punchy, not weakening.
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by ricky »

I see there is some lightning showing up over the northern Coromandel..
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by Dale »

Northern Waikato guys should start getting prepped if not already.. just got sideswiped by a very heavy cold shower which is making a mess past the bombays now.. over the hunuas its building again for another onslaught.
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

lots of CU building around here due to the heating from the sun
(16C here now too)
if it was november it would be all go!
-but still get shower activity alter this afternoon here I would say
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by David »

Where's all the storms in the Tasman? Can't see any lightning being detected out there
Strange because we have warm temps and good humidity as well as an unstable atmosphere yet there is still nothing much happening
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by jamie »

on the 1.45pm radar scan it looks like there is something building between Huntly and Ngaruawahia
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by Cameo2 »

yeah I feel your pain David, looks like a fizzer today for us guys :-(
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by spwill »

Interesting Cb development today but not strong enough for thunder around here.
photo of a Cb just south of Auckland 15mins ago, a heavy shower line has formed down there.
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Here is CB that is around Bombay atm and has had 1 crack of lightning so far.
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Re: Thunderstorms Mid June?

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

Westerly wind change here now
CB's out to my west now have the top blown to the north instead of the south like the cb's out to the east of me.....s the trough axis is right over the auckland are now...but not much happening
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