1st weekend in July (South Island)

[southerly-hunter]

I like the sound of that snow near Springfield, with any luck we might get a bit down here in dunedin's hill suburbs tues/wed but probably a 50/50 chance really. Almost looked like we could end up with a frost here tonight just before dark but still a bit of cloud out now. My pick is that in the morning it's 2 or 3 degrees around ashburton/timaru with a bit of sleet.

[mikestormchaser]

I would like to see your mini-reports there Mark
Maybe you should put them up on mini-You tube?

JohnGaul
mini-NZThS

hopefully you dont need a mini- computer to put them up either Mark

[Storm Struck]

Banks Peninsula certainly gave most of Canterbury a sheltering today except for the inland areas, very typical of the E-SE flow.
Still tomorrow and Tuesday for this system to continue firing cold showers, perhaps abit more persistant on Tuesday and the snow level slightly lower too.

Come on guys dont you think the mini jokes are being stretched on abit , we already know we dislike the media terms which can be annoying when hearing it on the TV.

[Fujita Phil]

Yep bit of a fizzer for canterbury by the looks, unless your in the mackenzie. Just the odd shower coming through Dunedin, and didn't get as cold as i thought it might. It's been 0 or 1 degree on campbell island all day but that cold air seems to be staying south. A bit of sleet Fujita Phil? How high are you? Halfway bush?

Phils in Opoho..

Currently in a LazyBoy!

Just drove back from Seacliff (no comments about the Asylum please ) and there was snow/sleet falling at the top of the motorway. Nothing really but a mini-mention

[trickytiger]

I like the sound of that snow near Springfield, with any luck we might get a bit down here in dunedin's hill suburbs tues/wed but probably a 50/50 chance really. Almost looked like we could end up with a frost here tonight just before dark but still a bit of cloud out now. My pick is that in the morning it's 2 or 3 degrees around ashburton/timaru with a bit of sleet.

Not far off there, we're currently on 4 degrees with a bit of sleet falling, i think i'd rather heavy snow though

[Nev]

...Come on guys dont you think the mini jokes are being stretched on abit , we already know we dislike the media terms which can be annoying when hearing it on the TV.

Yes, to be fair, of the numerous stories about the Kaitaia tornado, only the mini, er petite, one-news reporter used the 'm-word' (the presenter opted for 'powerful tornado' ). I guess Philip Duncan may be able to take some of the credit for that.

[southerly-hunter]

Well we've had a touch of frost and then the odd drizzly shower roll through (snow-dust level looks about 400m),
damn icey out though, black ice earlier. I see the latest maps from metvuw show not much precip at all for otago tues-tues night now, whats with all these fizzer's of late, all just clipping us, we need a 1939 dump!

[Razor]

Metservice and Blue Skies seem to have very differing opinons on rain/snowfall for Tuesday in Cantebruy. Will be of interest to see how much (or little) things develop. My pick is the same as the last few days, cool cloudy and very little precipitation around ChCh, maybe more up in the hills?

[tich]

Light dusting of snow down to about 400m above Akaroa, but only above 600m on west side of harbour. Not much precipitation overnight, and sun has come out occasionally this morning, though mostly cloudy with the odd spit here and there.

[Razor]

I'm actually quote staggered to see our two most prominent forecasting organisations sticking to such very different guns about tonight and tomorrow. Tony, perhaps you can elaborate is this one of those 50-50 scenarios?

Metservice say scattered rain and snow tonight to 400m, then rain to showers tomorrow. They have a road snow warning of 10-20cm on Porters Pass.

Blueskies say showers clearing tonight and dry but cloudy tomorrow.

Someone is going to be wrong!

For the record, dry all day again here in ChCh,

[Storm Struck]

I know there is a low crossing overnight from the west coast, which might bring some scatterd showers for awhile and brief snow to the 400m mark.
But i would think slowly easing up by tomorrow with as you say razor ditto like today.
Look forward to some sunshine from Thursday onwards atleast, i think thats what alot of people need right now especailly considering we have been under overcast gloomy skies for weeks now.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

In Westport from noon today and from 1pm the heavens opened and it has been raining hard and constant all afternoon long and no sign at all of a let up at all. I would say around 25mm from thr 4-5 hours it has been raining at least, if not more. Isolated thunderstroms in the forecast as well. Saw some snow, quite a bit in the lewis pass and a few flurries at times. Got a few pics and videos to put on when get back. Hopefully a few thunderstorms tonight would be good I am west of the alps after all so if im going to see something it is over here.

[TonyT]

I'm actually quote staggered to see our two most prominent forecasting organisations sticking to such very different guns about tonight and tomorrow. Tony, perhaps you can elaborate is this one of those 50-50 scenarios?

I dont see the flow being onshore much (if any) at all tomorrow, so apart from morning drizzle patches I cant really see any showers or rain over Canterbury. Hence a mostly dry forecast. It does look as though there will be more SE flow on Wednesday than previously anticipated, so maybe a few showers then.

[Philip Duncan]

...Come on guys dont you think the mini jokes are being stretched on abit , we already know we dislike the media terms which can be annoying when hearing it on the TV.

Yes, to be fair, of the numerous stories about the Kaitaia tornado, only the mini, er petite, one-news reporter used the 'm-word' (the presenter opted for 'powerful tornado' ). I guess Philip Duncan may be able to take some of the credit for that.

What have I done now!?

[Nev]

Phil, I was referring to one of your past blogs about the correct terminology of tornadoes etc (I think it was entitled something about weather geeks). Anyway perhaps the media etc took some notice, as the 'm-word' was barely used this time round. Either that or the recent publicity about MetService's new Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings.

[Lawrence]

I'm actually quote staggered to see our two most prominent forecasting organisations sticking to such very different guns about tonight and tomorrow. Tony, perhaps you can elaborate is this one of those 50-50 scenarios?

I dont see the flow being onshore much (if any) at all tomorrow, so apart from morning drizzle patches I cant really see any showers or rain over Canterbury. Hence a mostly dry forecast. It does look as though there will be more SE flow on Wednesday than previously anticipated, so maybe a few showers then.

Just out of interest Tony,I was fairly disappointed with this last event,everything seemed to be well except the low level temps but even then I was expecting some boundary layer decoupling.
I know that to have a good chance of snow in Canterbury to low levels we have to have certain readings like the the temp should be say about >2.7c depending on humidity, the wind should be either Southerly or tending South Easterly and fairly brisk,534-522 dam thickness values are usually present I find,a deep ridge or cold front usually present, or cold air being trapped over a period by the alps being over run by moist warm air.

I would just like to get every ones thoughts on what they think are the basic criteria for a low level event in the plains are, using memory and charts or examples.
I look foward to everyones thoughts and inputs to this question.

[Storm Struck]

Well patchy showers have formed this evening so far, patchy stuff here too with some reasonable sized drops.
Looks like it may well just increase over the next few hours to become a more persistant rain perhaps.

[Razor]

Thanks for the response there Tony, makes good sense. We have had the wee shower that Jasestrm was talking about too, lightish rain with large drops. Too warm for any action weather, it does seem that inland Canterbury is getting the good stuff this year, unlike last year when cold spells were more light the Karsh scenarios and stayed coastal.

[teanaumalone]

moderate rain here in Hoki and only 7 degrees. 24mm today. 14mm since 5pm with light E 1/4 winds. Cloud top temps have really cooled heaps on latest sat photos. There is quite the feature showing mid SI at the mo. Might be some more inland canterbury snowfall overnight.

[Storm Struck]

Now its starting to rain nicly with moderate falls, the 11pm radar shows what could be possible snow echo inland perhaps.

[MoorfNZ]

Snowing hard here, laying on ground - HUGE flakes. An hour ago it was tipping it down with rain.... if this keeps up overnight we may have to play 'hunt the car' in the morning!

[Razor]

3degrees and raining in ChCh, rain radar showing a clearance soon. Should be pretty sweet inland this morning!

[spwill]

what they think are the basic criteria for a low level event in the plains are,

A High or strong Ridge to the S/SW of NZ is always a good start, need to get the very cold air up.


I see Chch has had only 4.7 hrs sunshine so far for July and cold with it, gloomy.

[southerly-hunter]

Just checked out the lastest charts on metvuw.com and they're looking snowy for the weekend!
Surely this one can't fail us. Looks like a south-southwest flick for southland late fri then turning south-southeast and lining up north otago-canterbury sat-sun-mon. Fingers crossed tighter than ever haha

[RWood]

what they think are the basic criteria for a low level event in the plains are,

A High or strong Ridge to the S/SW of NZ is always a good start, need to get the very cold air up.


I see Chch has had only 4.7 hrs sunshine so far for July and cold with it, gloomy.

Wellington has had only 11.9 hrs in the 11 days to Sunday 5 July. Not a record-breaker, but very low on the list. Auckland sunshine total as at end-June is far ahead of the Ch'ch value, something that hasn't happened for many years.